Wesley Ward (right) could be celebrating again at Royal Ascot

Royal Ascot preview: Where are the talented two-year-olds?

By Tony McFadden

Horse Racing

Sat June 19, 2021 · 5y ago

Timeform's Tony McFadden takes a look at the two-year-old picture ahead of Royal Ascot, where Wesley Ward could be in for a good meeting.

The Union Jack may be synonymous with Royal Ascot but it would be wise for the course executive to also keep The Stars And Stripes to hand - and possibly even a White Flag!

British trainers suffered a chastening experience at the Cheltenham Festival and there's a fear the juvenile races at Royal Ascot - particularly those contested over five furlongs - could also be dominated by a raiding party.

Wesley Ward has enjoyed remarkable success with his two-year-olds at Royal Ascot since bursting on the scene in 2009 with Strike The Tiger and Jealous Again, and the opposition standing in the American's way this year is looking rather flimsy.

Comparing the highest-rated British and Irish juveniles this season to those heading into Royal Ascot in past years makes for interesting reading. Ebro River tops the standings for the Coventry Stakes with a Timeform rating of 102. Excluding last year, when the start to the season was delayed by the pandemic, you have to go back to 2007 to find the last time the highest-rated runner in the Coventry was on such a lowly figure.

It is a similar story in the Queen Mary (2012), the Windsor Castle (2006) and Norfolk Stakes (2007), in which the top-rated runners have not achieved as much as might have been expected at this stage of the season.

It is not just a case of there being one outstanding candidate in past years - there was greater strength in depth heading into the meeting. For example, the mean Timeform rating of the top five British or Irish colts in the Coventry Stakes this year is 97.6 - it was 104 in 2019 and 101.4 in 2018.

It's notable that only four juveniles this season have achieved a Timeform rating of 100 or higher, and two of those - Castle Star and Hermana Estrella - won't even be running at Royal Ascot. This figure compares poorly against recent years, when many more had hit the benchmark – there were 10 in 2015, 13 in 2016, eight in 2017, 10 in 2018 and 13 in 2019.

Of course, ratings are a function of opportunity as well as ability, so you wouldn't want to judge a lightly raced juvenile harshly just because they had failed to achieve a lofty figure from limited chances. However, this year's crop of British and Irish two-year-olds - with a couple of notable exceptions - have not impressed Timeform's reporters.

The 'Large P' denotes that a horse is expected to make significant improvement, and it is a symbol generally used sparingly and saved for the best prospects. However, not one horse set to contest a five-furlong race this week has the 'Large P' attached to their rating, and it is hard to escape the impression that Ward's juveniles will take some stopping if they are anything out of the ordinary.

Ward will be represented in the Queen Mary this year by Twilight Gleaming, who narrowly heads Timeform's ratings on the back of a wide-margin win at Belmont. The form is not easy to weigh up but she easily drew seven and a half lengths clear under a largely motionless rider, looking like an exciting prospect. It's also telling that she is Ward's designated representative in a race he has won four times, including in 2020 with Campanelle, who ended last season as Timeform's leading juvenile filly.

Ruthin, the long-time ante-post favourite for the Queen Mary, has been rerouted to the Windsor Castle and her claims are even more compelling. She is 5lb clear on the weight-adjusted figures after scoring by six lengths on debut at Keeneland in April.

Ward's pair in the Norfolk, Lucci and Nakatomi, don't have such strong claims on the figures but were dominant winners on debut and could be up against relatively limited opposition. It's also worth noting they are likely to shorten significantly in the betting if Ward has a successful week and it looks like his juveniles are ahead of their European counterparts.

Ward has not won a juvenile race at Royal Ascot beyond five furlongs, but he has the favourite for the Coventry Stakes with Kaufymaker. She looks to hold a decent chance without being a betting proposition in what is unlikely to be a vintage Coventry Stakes, but Ward's Golden Bell will be up against it in the Albany Stakes as that race features a clash between two of the best prospects seen in Britain this season, with Flotus (97P) representing Simon and Ed Crisford and Hello You (94P) running for Ralph Beckett.

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Flotus put up arguably the most visually impressive performance by a British-trained two-year-old this season when bolting up by four and three-quarter lengths at Goodwood and, based on the significant market support, such a performance was not unexpected.

The Albany might turn out to be a race for the Brits, but there is still an obvious American connection - Flotus is an acronym for First Lady of the United States.