What it takes to win the Oaks and the best of the 2021 contenders
Timeform’s John Ingles outlines what it takes to win an Oaks and which of this year’s contenders have the strongest credentials.
It is sometimes said that the 2000 Guineas is the best trial for the Derby.
That might not be true for the colts this year but, for the second season running, the 1000 Guineas could well be an important pointer to the Oaks with the Newmarket fourth Santa Barbara clear favourite for Epsom.
Santa Barbara had been heavily supported in the run-up to the 1000 Guineas despite her racecourse experience amounting to just a win in a Curragh maiden last year. On the day she was uneasy in the market but still started the 5/2 joint-favourite while her stable-companion Mother Earth, who had the best form in the book, was sent off at 10/1.
Santa Barbara stood out on looks beforehand but her lack of experience proved her undoing as she took a keen hold and ran green but there was plenty of promise too in her fourth place, just over a length behind Mother Earth. Santa Barbara is sure to have learnt plenty from that run and will be suited by stepping up in trip.
Even so, two runs still amounts to very little experience for a filly running in a Classic, though as can be seen in the table below, two Oaks winners in the last decade – Was and Taghrooda – won at Epsom on just their third starts.
The ‘number of prior starts’ column makes for very interesting reading as it shows that there are two distinct types of Oaks winners.
Seven of the last ten winners had raced only two or three times beforehand but the other trio, Qualify, Minding and Love had all run at least seven times. It’s no coincidence that all three of those were trained by Aidan O’Brien.
Each of them was fairly busy at two and went to the Oaks after a Guineas campaign beforehand. While Qualify struggled in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket and the Curragh before causing a 50/1 shock at Epsom, Minding and Love, two of the best Classic-winning fillies of the last ten years, stood out on form in the Oaks after winning the 1000 Guineas (Minding was narrowly beaten in the Irish 1000 Guineas in between).
Given that she finished just in front of Santa Barbara when second in the 1000 Guineas, Saffron Beach (111) is entitled to be much closer to the favourite in the Oaks betting strictly on their running at Newmarket.
But while Jane Chapple-Hyam’s filly ran much her best race stepped up to a mile for the first time, her pedigree suggests she’ll have to rely heavily on her sire New Bay for the stamina to see out another half-mile as she’s by no means stoutly bred on her dam’s side.
Because of these two different paths to the Oaks – one via the 1000 Guineas and the other via the middle-distance trials which usually take less winning – the table also shows that the form shown beforehand by the filly who goes on to win the Oaks can vary markedly from year to year.
Minding and Love already had form good enough to win an Oaks – assuming they stayed, of course - but five of the last ten Oaks winners only had ratings in the 98-105 range beforehand and one of those, Forever Together, was still a maiden, albeit runner-up in the Cheshire Oaks.
The average rating for an Oaks winner over the last ten years going into the race is 107.3 whereas the average winning performance in the race is 118.1. An 11lb improvement on prior form is generally a bit more than the average colt needs to show to win the Derby. That’s a reflection of the fact that most Oaks winners – the likes of Minding and Love are exceptions as we’ve seen – are still very lightly raced going into the race and have scope for plenty of improvement stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time.
Returning to Santa Barbara, both her twice-raced profile and her above-average pre-Oaks rating (111p), with almost certain improvement to come, make her a leading contender but she’s no stand-out on form – five of the top seven in the Oaks betting are covered by just 2lb on Timeform ratings – and there’s little value in her current odds of 7/4.
Next in the betting is her stable-companion Snowfall (109), winner of the Musidora Stakes at York. In contrast to Santa Barbara, she has the profile of one of Ballydoyle’s much busier Oaks winners as she had seven races at two.
However, she failed to cut much ice in the top fillies’ races last year but it was a different story at York where she looked to have done well from two to three. By Deep Impact out of a sister to Arc winner Found, the longer trip clearly suited her too. Snowfall’s clear-cut success from the front under Ryan Moore rather dented the Oaks hopes of the much more lightly raced pair Noon Star (104) and Teona (104p) who chased her home.
The latter will have to settle better at Epsom than she did at York but they both have pedigrees that point to them developing into smart mile and a half performers - Noon Star is by Galileo out of the Oaks runner-up Midday.
The other key trial looks like being the Cheshire Oaks – won by Enable before her Epsom victory in 2017 - and, as in the Musidora, it was a case of experience winning out over potential.
The Mark Johnston-trained winner Dubai Fountain (110) was making her reappearance after running seven times last year, winning her first two starts and then running well in defeat in better company, including when fourth in the Fillies’ Mile in which Snowfall was back in eighth.
However, it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see the more lightly raced runner-up Zeyaadah (110p) fare the better of the pair at Epsom and she makes plenty of appeal at 8/1 in places.
Unbeaten in three starts for Roger Varian last year, including a listed race at Newmarket, Zeyaadah came out best at the weights at Chester conceding 3lb to the winner and wasn’t so well placed as Dubai Fountain who got first run on her.
What does it take to win the Derby? Click here or on the image below for John's assessment of the colts' Classic...
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