Our man looks ahead to the Coral Welsh National at Chepstow and feels the top weight is well worth getting on side at a big price.
Antepost Value Bet tips: National Hunt season
1pt win Royale Pagaille in Coral Welsh National at 20/1 (General)
Conditions at Newbury may not have suited some in Saturday's Coral Gold Cup but connections looking to prepare horses for the Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase - backed by the same sponsors - can just about bank on proper winter ground by the time of the traditional Christmas feature on December 27.
ROYALE PAGAILLE might not be alone in effectively being rerouted from Newbury to a crack at the Welsh National and he's the first horse that leaps out and smacks you in the face when assessing this race on the back of the weights being published in midweek.
Winding back a couple of weeks, owner Rich Ricci and the team announced he’d had a small 'niggle' which meant he'd miss the Betfair Chase at Haydock, with Newbury the back-up plan providing the horse was back on track fitness-wise, and the going suitable.
With the Venetia Williams yard clearly stepping things up in recent days it’s hoped Royale Pagaille is in a good place again physically, but he really does need it deep underfoot - which wasn't the case this weekend - and it’ll be interesting to see if he's also given an entry in next Saturday’s Many Clouds Chase at Aintree.
Williams might be tempted to have a look as he’s clearly a Grade Two performer – at least – when conditions are suitable, but if he were mine I’d be training him purely for Chepstow as he’s got a good record when fresh.
In addition, I'm far from convinced the speed-favouring nature of Aintree’s course plays to this horse's strengths. Granted, it was (spring) good to soft ground when he was kicked into touch by Clan Des Obeaux and co there when last sighted in April, but he’s obviously a proper galloper as highlighted by his past two wins in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock in January 2021 and ‘22 (heavy and soft respectively).
The real kicker when it comes to his Welsh National chance is that Royale Pagaille, despite not having soft ground since Haydock and hardly performing badly when runner-up in the Denman Chase and fifth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup subsequent to the success, is that he’s back on his last winning handicap mark of 163.
Synchronised, Native River and Elegant Escape are the only horses to have won the Welsh National carrying more than 11st since 2010, but it’s hard to argue this eight-year-old isn’t in that sort of calibre and we’ve already seen on several occasions this season – as if anyone needed a reminder – that jumpers rated in the high-150s and low-160s are actually well-in against many in that slightly lower band whose marks are being inflated a touch beyond their actual ability.
Frodon winning the Badger Beer, I Like To Move It the Greatwood and Does He Know (also at Cheltenham’s November meeting) have all defied top weight in valuable handicaps recently and Royale Pagaille did just that himself when seeing off Sam Brown, Fortescue and Remastered at Haydock earlier this year.
That form with Sam Brown - who went on to win well at Aintree in the spring - ties in favourably with the likes of fellow Chepstow challenger Pats Fancy, who was getting 16lb when comfortably beaten by Bravemansgame at Newbury in February. Sam Brown was third to Bravemansgame, giving him 1lb, in the Charlie Hall last month.
Another intriguing quirk with Royale Pagaille is that, should he in fact run and win the Many Clouds, he'd no doubt be heading to Chepstow ahead of the handicapper as winners’ penalties cannot increase a horse’s weight above 12st, a quirk in the system exploited wonderfully well by Native River after he'd won the ‘Hennessy’ en route in 2016.
Either way he’s a massive player here and the 20/1 available with Coral, Ladbrokes and bet365 looks significantly too great at this stage, especially as the likes of Grumpy Charley, Musical Slave and 2020 winner (run in Jan ’21) Secret Reprieve would be among those forced to run from out of the handicap if the top horse stands his ground.
Course specialist Wayfinder, generally just 16/1, would be 7lb ‘wrong’ in the same scenario.
Among the current market leaders is Harry Fry’s Ask Me Early, who seems likely to sneak in near the foot of the handicap and shaped with a degree of promise when third to Le Milos at Bangor earlier in the month.
He’s another with a fine track record and looks happiest when the mud is flying but he’s not got many miles on the clock and it has to be a concern whether he’s quite seasoned enough for a gruelling race of this nature just yet. There are no such fears with the selection.
Published at 1450 GMT on 27/11/22
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