Weekend Racing Tips including Newmarket and York

What – if anything – is the danger to Musical Times in the bet365 Fillies’ Mile?

Andrew Asquith: You can’t argue with the form of Rogue Passion’s latest win at Longchamp when she beat Amusingly, who has since come out and won against the boys in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère last weekend. She didn’t just win, either, she created an excellent impression, while Data who finished third that day, ran a cracker when runner-up in the Prix Marcel Boussac. There should be even more to come from Rogue Passion and she shouldn’t be taken lightly.

David Ord: Well, Rogue Passion according to the market and that Qatar Prix D’Aumale defeat of Amusingly last month. That filly took a big leap forward when winning the Jean-Luc Lagardere at the weekend though and I think Forbidden Fire is the one to give the favourite most to think about at HQ on Friday. There’s not much of the daughter of No Nay Never but there was a lot to like about the way she beat the promising Rock Montreal and subsequent Mill Reef winner Nabati in the Flying Scotsman at Doncaster, producing a sharp turn of foot to go clear of her rivals and digging deep to fend off the staying-on runner-up. If Musical Times kicks her into touch as she did her May Hill rivals, then she’s very good.

Nic Doggett: Given what Amusingly (Jean-Luc Lagardere winner) and Data (head-second to Green Empress in the Marcel Boussac) achieved last weekend, it has to be Rogue Passion who stormed home to beat both horses last time. It looks significant that connections have saved her for this (would have had to supplement for the Boussac, mind you), and I think she's very good. But is she good enough to beat the May Hill winner Musical Times, who is on the same path as the yard's Desert Flower who won at Doncaster, and this race, before following up in the 1000 Guineas? I think probably not, but she could be the Godolphin filly's biggest test to date (only 7lb between the pair on Timeform ratings).

The Old Rowley Cup is the big betting race on Friday – how do you see it?

Andrew Asquith: Archers Bay appeals as being well treated back in a handicap following a career-best effort when runner-up in a Listed race over this course and distance recently. He was beaten only by a very exciting prospect of Charlie Appleby’s on that occasion and Archers Bay has a very likeable way of going about his business. He’s just 1lb higher in the weights returned to handicap company and he’s one to keep on the right side.

David Ord: You must respect Archers Bay who is officially 5lb well-in for this early-closer after a ratings bump for finishing second to the well-touted Fortitudine in a Listed race over course-and-distance last time. It’s what you make of that form coming back into a handicap but current odds (5/1) are perfectly fair. However, at bigger prices I’d like Spyce on my side. He was rusty on his return from 12 weeks off at Doncaster and had a breathing operation too but was also luckless, twice hitting trouble in running. He’s down three pounds to 96 on Friday, four pounds lower than when fourth in the ultra-competitive London Gold Cup in the spring. Alan King is having a good year in top handicaps too. Also on the radar is High Storm for Karl Burke. Now his chances depend on the rain they get in the build-up to the race. He’s two-from-two on going softer than good and was better than ever when winning at Thirsk last time. Hopefully the recent rain has taken any sting out of the ground.

Nic Doggett: Archers Bay is the handicap angle as he can race off 5lb lower than his future mark; his form looks very solid, but that can also be said of many of these who are linked through an Ascot race last month that was won by Turty Tree. In turn, Andrew Balding's charge was a short-head behind Devil's Peak at Newbury back in July, but is 2lb better off here. But I'm hoping the ground could be suitable for 14/1 chance Spyce. The handicapper might have been a bit hasty in dropping the London Gold Cup fourth 3lb for his recent defeat at Doncaster (first start after a wind op) and his trainer Alan King - who won this back in 2019 with Trueshan - knows what it takes to win these big middle-distance handicaps.

Desert Castle odds-on for the Dewhurst – for or against?

Andrew Asquith: Darkness Falls is closely matched with Desert Castle on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, but I’d be for the latter. He looked very promising when making a winning debut over this course and distance and confirmed that impression in spades when following up in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last month, displaying a smart turn of foot to settle matters while still showing signs of inexperience. There’s plenty more improvement in him and he can confirm himself a leading player for the 2000 Guineas next season.

David Ord: It’s a watching brief for me. It’s just at the back of my mind how he’s hung left off the bridle both on debut on the July Course and in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster. He doesn’t want to be doing that going into the Dip at Newmarket and it will be fascinating to see how he handles it all. I think he’ll be too quick for Darkness Falls for all he’s clearly held in high regard and looks to bet getting a sighter of the Rowley Mile ahead of a potential 2000 Guineas bid in the spring. I think Great Barrier Reef could be a bigger threat for Ballydoyle. He was beaten at long odds-on in the Round Tower Stakes last time, but the winner came out and ran OK in the Middle Park and the son of No Nay Never looks ready for this seventh furlong.

Nic Doggett: Both Ballydoyle big guns are pitching so I'd be against, although it feels like we've said that plenty with Great Barrier Reef this season. However, I don't think he lost much in defeat trying to give weight away last time given how Push The Boat Out shaped in the Middle Park, and it's worth pointing out that his yard won this with a second string in 2020. But Darkness Falls showed plenty of speed from the stalls at Leopardstown and, while that wasn't a strong Group 1, his progress since late-July puts him into the 'could be anything' bracket as he drops in trip. Desert Castle's tendency to hang would make me a bit nervous at odds-on in what's his biggest test to date. The same yard's last two winners of this, Native Trail in 2021 and Shadow Of Light in 2024, had achieved much more yet went off at 5/6 and evens, respectively.

What other two-year-olds are you looking forward to seeing?

Andrew Asquith:It has to be Rock Montreal in the Autumn Stakes. He looked a proper horse when making a winning debut at Yarmouth in August and he knocked the eye out physically at Doncaster last time. Seven furlongs appeared to be on the sharp side for him on that occasion, though, but this step up to a mile promises to bring about another jolt of improvement, and he’s just as interesting as a Guineas hopeful for next season.

David Ord: There are a host of exiting two-year-olds on show at Newmarket, with big potential improvers in both the Autumn Stakes and Zetland but there was something out of the ordinary about Sharadd’s debut win at Haydock and I'm looking forward to seeing him back on the track in a novice event at York on Friday. The way he travelled through the race before drawing a widening six lengths clear of Al Arraab at the Newton-Le-Willows venue stamped him out as a pattern performer in the making and, while bound to be short in the betting here, I think he’s really exiting.

Nic Doggett: As above, I'm keen to see Great Barrier Reef. He clearly hasn't had the most straightforward of seasons, but I liked the way he battled to win the Coventry and I think there's plenty more improvement to come now up in trip (dam Gems, albeit modest, stayed well).

Which horse currently tops your Cesarewitch shortlist – and why?

Andrew Asquith: I put up Sea Lantern in my Weekend View column earlier in the week and he remains top of my list. It was hard not to be impressed by his win over a mile and a half at Pontefract last time, shaping like one who will be suited by this test, while his previous form when giving stacks of weight to Infraad now reads very well. Hopefully, likely quicker ground won’t bother him too much, as he’s surely well ahead of his mark under a 4lb penalty.

David Ord: I like Mountain Road. He’s right at the top of his game at present for Jim Goldie and his run behind the handicap blot Small Fry at York last time screamed Cesarewitch. He was held up and still had a lot on his plate three furlongs out. He made good headway out wide and while the winner had flown, he closed to within a length at the line, pulling nicely clear of the rest. This race will suit his tactics far better and he looks a major player in a really interesting renewal.

Nic Doggett: Kirchner. I thought he was given a very considerate ride once defeat was inevitable at York in a strong race won by Small Fry, and I'm not too worried that Ryan Moore has jumped ship onto last year's runner-up Dawn Rising given the O'Brien connections he has there (and the fact he rode her to win at Ascot back in 2023). Rossa Ryan has a good record for James Owen, and I think this sort of test will suit the grey – who can race off the same mark - down to the ground.

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