Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North

The one topic of discussion from last weekend’s jump racing, or, more accurately, from Newbury in particular, was the state of the ground and how unseasonably quick it was, albeit not helped by an inability to water, leading Timeform to call it ‘Firm’ which is just the third time this century that a meeting in February has been awarded that description.

I provided a bit more historical context in a short piece I wrote on Monday so don’t propose to cover it again, but it’s worth bearing in mind with Cheltenham on the horizon (and with Fakenham abandoned later this week) that not only may some horses take some time to recover from races on ground as fast as it is in places right now but that the races they contested may well have lacked some of the competitiveness normally expected of them on more typical winter ground.

The former assumption may well be true of some horses who ran in last weekend’s feature race, the Betfair Hurdle, but I’m not sure the latter accusation holds much water.

Betfair principals remain interesting

Given the lightning-quick conditions, the field size held up pretty well with 16 runners being a welcome increase on the all-time-low of 14 since Betfair assumed sponsorship in 2022 and the ‘class’ of the race as measured by average official ratings (138) was also better than some recent runnings (notably 2021 when Soaring Glory won it) if still some way short of the 151 Zarkandar overcame in 2012.

Something that has grabbed my attention recently is the number of horses who have gone on to win having jumped the final obstacle on the penultimate circuit in front – over 41% last week – and as a front runner whose mark had been left unchanged despite recent improvement over fences as well as being proven under quickish conditions, Aucunrisque had plenty going for him beforehand even if, I hasten to add, I didn’t get around to backing him.

The 147 performance rating Timeform awarded him is a little shy of his best effort over fences, but the clock suggests there is a good reason to take an even more positive view of the form and a 150 timefigure is the best achieved in the race since Timeform started returning timefigures over jumps in the mid 2010s, marginally ahead of the 149 Kalashnikov returned in 2018 on very testing ground.

Aucunrisque will reportedly head back over fences after possibly taking in the Kingwell Hurdle this coming weekend, but while Paul Nicholls might have been right beforehand in saying there was no Champion Hurdle horse in the line-up, Filey Bay still has unfinished business over hurdles.

A 144 timefigure is easily a career best (Timeform didn’t return any timefigures for his latest win at Wincanton because visibility was non-existent) and he might well have won had he not been settled a bit far back, running three of the last four individual furlongs faster than the winner according to Course Track and that despite making a mess of the second last.

His form at two miles reads well, but he’s surely going to take another marked step forward when upped to two and a half miles.

Aucunrisque was the second winner over hurdles on the card for his trainer Chris Gordon who had saddled Annual Invictus earlier to win the three-mile hurdle.

Despite being allowed his own way in front and not going overly quickly – his winning timefigure was 126, some 16lb below his performance rating – Annual Invictus still ran the distance nine seconds faster than any of the previous 45 races run at the trip.

That differential reduces to three seconds once the additional yardage the next fastest of those horses, Champ, had to cover at Newbury’s November meeting is factored in and is a reminder, though it shouldn’t really need repeating any more, is that fast times usually are more often a reflection of fast conditions than anything else.

Tough afternoon for Nicholls team

The aforementioned Kalashnikov turned up in the Denman Chase and looked a pale shadow of his former self, albeit on ground that is almost certainly far too lively for him. The race went not to Hitman, one of several high-profile under-performers on the day from the Paul Nicholls yard, but to course specialist Zanza who sat off the strong and contested pace before leading two out to come home unchallenged in a smart 155 timefigure.

He’ll likely turn up at Cheltenham next, but undulating tracks don’t seem to suit him and he be easy to oppose there. Hitman got back on track to some extent after his tame King George effort where he reportedly bled, as he seemingly did again here, but those two bits of information allied to the three breathing operations he’s already had for one so young suggests he’s probably reached the ceiling of his ability.

Nicholls also had the beaten favourite in the other two chases. McFabulous returned with an irregular heartbeat after the opener, but Greaneteen was probably beaten by the very fast ground (it was his first run on anything quicker than good) and the left-handed track in the Game Spirit Chase, though it was also interesting to hear his trainer confess in a post-race interview that he’d always been well placed and that his 170 official rating flattered him.

The winner of the race, Funambule Sivola, didn’t need to repeat the form he showed when winning the same race in 2022 and a dictating front-running win in a lowly 135 timefigure isn’t conclusive evidence he’s ready to repeat last year’s Champion Chase heroics when second behind Energumene.

How do we evaluate Jonbon's performance?

Warwick’s feature on its Virgin Bet sponsored card was the Kingmaker Novices’ Chase that had been won by the subsequent Sporting Life Arkle winner Edwardstone in 2022 and was expected to be something of a cakewalk for current Cheltenham favourite Jonbon after he was left to face just one rival ,and a very inferior one at that, in the shape of Calico.

Two-runner races aren’t usually the most reliable form guides and I’d still be judging Jonbon on his defeat of Boothill (who subsequently got the better of Aucunrisque at Kempton before failing to concede weight to Tommy’s Oscar at Doncaster) at Sandown but the clock pointed to this being run at a reasonable clip, for all there was just one other chase on the card, and I think it’s fair to assume the speedy Calico ran somewhere near his best.

A 145 timefigure for Jonbon and a 16lb upgrade from three out just edges him into the 160s, a bit off his overall performance in the Henry VIII at Sandown but certainly nothing to be gloomy about. He looks a more assured jumper than the horse who has replaced him at the head of the Arkle betting, El Fabiolo, though I still feel Dysart Dynamo is a bigger price than he should be or that race.

Is Blazing Khal the right Stayers' Hurdle favourite?

There was some interesting action as ever over in Ireland, with Navan’s Sunday card of particular interest as it featured the return of Blazing Khal who has long been touted as a potential winner of the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle.

Much like the Galmoy the other week won by Teahupoo, the race was a ragbag of horses most of whom were either past their best or had something to prove and it too turned into something of a speed test, with a steady gallop resulting in Blazing Khan returning an ordinary 121 timefigure.

A three-length defeat of Meet And Great who needs further with the ailing Beacon Edge a bit further back in third is a long way off Stayers winning level, and it should be said too that none of Blazing Khal’s earlier form looks any better now than it did at the time, but he’s got good course form at Cheltenham, will come for this as well as be suited by the extra half mile and a final circuit time faster than any of the other hurdles races on the card, including the listed novice hurdle over five furlongs shorter won by Hunters Yarn, suggests he’s pretty quick for one that stays well.

American Mike couldn’t cope with the test of speed behind Hunters Yarn (timefigure just 116). Whether he was fully tuned up after being pulled out of the Dublin Racing Festival the week before I’m not sure, but setting a steady pace in front over two miles when his intended race at Leopardstown had been over three-quarters of a mile further was never going to bring out the best in him and his performance, albeit under less than optimum conditions, was hardly the pickup Facile Vega supporters were hoping for after last week.

Ho My Lord ran out a ready winner of one of the maiden hurdles and looks a very good prospect. A faller at the Christmas meeting at Leopardstown, he scorched home from the last faster than any of the other hurdles winners and a near-five length win over some ordinary rivals in a 108 timefigure barely scratches the surface of his merit as he was only just getting into his stride after jumping the last.

Magic win but needs to settle at Cheltenham

The previous day at Naas, Magic Daze had won a decent renewal of a listed Mares Chase that had been won by subsequent Mrs Paddy Power winner Elimay last year (as well as the year before) and Benie Des Dieux too in the last five renewals.

Elimay was once again nowhere near her best in her hat-trick bid while third-placed Minx Tiara gives the form a slightly questionable look, but the winner turned in a marginal career-best effort (143 timefigure) under an attacking ride from Rachael Blackmore and is another interesting candidate for the Mares Chase, though she’ll have to settle better than she did last year to give her true running.

Finally, a mention for the two listed contests on a better-than-usual British Sunday card at Exeter.

Pink Legend saw off some exposed rivals in a chase lacking new faces in a 129 timefigure but I was more interested to see how Luccia, a horse I put up in my Cheltenham ante-post yankee several weeks back, got on in the hurdle.

A top-drawer performance was always going to be hard to achieve given the limited opposition, and that needs to be borne in mind before lionising her performance, but a 119 timefigure without coming off the bridle was satisfactory enough in the circumstances without suggesting she ought to be rerouted to the Supreme.

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