Check out Graeme North's timefigure analysis of the big weekend performances and he looks ahead to Aintree with a tip for the Grand National too.
Ayr weekend review
Post-Cheltenham Festival racing over jumps seldom interests me much other than the odd race at Aintree, Fairyhouse and Punchestown with a view to forming long-range opinion ahead of the next Cheltenham Festival, but if there’s one race I do look forward to it’s the Scottish Grand National which took place in front of a spectators on Saturday for the first time in three years and unsurprisingly attracted a sell-out crowd.
I’ve only ever been to Ayr once, many moons ago for a Flat fixture on one of the opening days of the September meeting, but still remember the vast interiors of the stands that needed people in large numbers in them to bring them alive as well as the enormous width of the track that isn’t apparent from television pictures. I made a note at the time – when the track had three permanent fences in the straight instead of the slightly overcrowded portable four it has now – to go back one day for the Scottish National but sadly have never made it with the seemingly-interminable drive there always giving me the excuse to wait another day.
What distinguished the Scottish National for me from the seemingly interminable regional Nationals that take place through the winter is that the race usually takes place under much faster conditions than the runners have been encountering and despite the long trip isn’t often a race for a slogger. That was the certainly the case this year with Win My Wings on good ground returning the highest winning timefigure in the race (138) since Timeform started returning timefigures in 2016.
I’ve always thought no horse could come close to Astral Charmer in 1981 for having the race won so obviously a long way out, but Win My Wings gave it a good go, always travelling far too strongly for her rivals and cruising clear when asked. Only her stable-mate Kitty’s Light was able to get within seven lengths at the line and that only because Win My Wings wasn’t ridden out as fully as she could have been with victory already assured.
Impressive winner for the Scottish National
Win My Wings’ success was yet another feather in the cap for her trainer Christian Williams who is amassing the sort of strike rate in long-distance chases that multiple champion trainer Nicky Henderson (twenty-six runners in the Grand National since 1994 and not one in the first four) can only dream about.
Since the start of 2018, Williams has sent out thirty-five runners in races over three-and-a-half miles or more and won with six of them at a strike rate of 17% with another ten finishing either second or third, meaning an astonishing 46% of his runners have finished in the first three.
Those wins also include the Welsh National and Midlands National, and Williams, whose eye for advantage was displayed in no uncertain manner by the booking of top Irish amateur Rob James to mostly offset the rise Win My Wings received for her Eider win, no doubt has the 2023 Grand National in mind for Kitty’s Light who isn’t qualified to run this year being a six-year-old.
Henderson might not have had a runner in the Scottish National but he didn’t go home winless from Ayr having saddled Dusart to get the better of the progressive Northern youngster Sounds Russian in the CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase in a 135 timefigure, the second fastest of the meeting over fences, improving a little on his form in fifth behind L’Homme Presse in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham.
The other notable timefigure over fences, though not a high one in itself, at the meeting was posted by Beakstown (128) in the Listed Handicap.
Flame pick of the hurdlers
Over hurdles the best figures of the week were both posted at Fairyhouse. Flame Bearer showed he wouldn’t have been out of the place in one of the handicaps at the Festival with a narrow defeat of Ha D’Or in a 143 timefigure in the Grade 2 Tom Quinlan Electrical Novice Hurdle and that despite being denied a clear run on more than one occasion. Bronn posted a 140 in the Grade 2 Easter Festival (transferred from the Irish National meeting) and like Flame Bearer took the spoils despite things going against him, recovering from being all but brought brought down at the third last.
On the Flat there was a fair drop of in quality as there always is in the week after the opening Lincoln meeting, and only two winners posted timefigures in three figures. First of those came from Nahanni in what had looked a competitive novice at Leicester despite the small field but ended up being a one-horse procession as he pulled nine lengths clear in first-time blinkers in a 101 timefigure that probably brings one of the Derby trials under consideration.
In contrast, Piz Badile, who won the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown in a 103 timefigure, could hardly have scored less decisively, edging out Buckaroo (also 103) by a short head as the pair came three and a half lengths clear. Incorporating sectionals, however, suggests that Buckaroo can be entitled to be rated the winner by a length or so having made his effort from further back and much wider round the home turn and then gone half a length clear before getting pipped on the line. Buckaroo is the more stoutly bred of pair and he ought to have no trouble staying a mile and a half.
Aintree preview
While the Flat struggles to engage top gear – how hard can it be to sort this out? – the focus this weekend is once again over jumps with the Grand National meeting set to take place on ground that might not be quite as soft as it seemed it might be looking at the latest forecasts.
The meeting might go some way to deciding the trainer’s championship if that sort of niche interest is your thing, and hopefully will see champion jockey elect Brian Hughes turn up on the big stage for once, but the meeting always has something of an ’After The Lord Mayor's Show’ feel to it with Grade 1s that are quite often easy pickings compared to those at Cheltenham with the best Irish horses usually staying at home.
Indeed, the opening race of the meeting, the Grade 1 (one of four on the day) SSS Super Alloys Novices' Chase over almost two and a half miles lacks any Irish challenge but the Jewson Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle will probably head back to Ireland if Triumph Hurdle third Pied Piper turns up in the same form as at Cheltenham though the race makes little appeal form a betting perspective.
There’s next to nothing to choose on the clock between Clan Des Obeaux, Royale Pagaille, Protektorat and Eldorado Allen in the Betway Bowl.
As a course winner in the Many Clouds and a decent third in the Gold Cup last time in a 163 timefigure, Protektorat looks the most obvious solution but I was impressed with Eldorado Allen when he posted a 163 in the Denman Chase at Newbury as well as his third behind Allaho in the Ryanair (161) and I fancy had he run in the Gold Cup as I had hoped he would instead of the Ryanair he wouldn’t have been left behind from the fence by A Plus Tard in the manner that Protektorat was.
Zanahiyr and Adagio head the time ratings for the Aintree Hurdle but I backed Epatante ante-post for the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in the expectation that a four-furlong step up in trip would suit her so with her 7lb allowance and a timefigure that puts her alongside Zanahiyr she’ll do for me, not least given she possesses by far the better turn of foot should the race end up being steadily run.
Jonbon tops the figures narrowly from First Street and Colonel Mustard on Friday in the opening Grade 1,the Betway Top Novices' Hurdle ,but I can’ say I’ve been impressed much by him on his last two starts and would be happy to leave this race alone.
The Mildmay Chase promises an interesting match-up between ready Brown Advisory winner L’Homme Presse and Bravemansgame who ducked that challenge apparently because of the very soft ground. Bravemansgame has the better timefigure in his pocket, but all his wins over fences have come in four-runner races he has been able to dominate and it’s likely he’ll face more runners here.
Fakir D’Oudaries is the one to beat in the Betway Mildmay Novices' Chase, while Minella Crooner who missed Cheltenham after finding only Minella Cocooner too good at the Dublin Racing Festival will be popular but might well find Good Risk At All too good in the Sefton despite the latter (who is his equal on the clock) not having run outside handicaps yet.
The Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle will become clearer after Friday declarations as both Jonbon and Good Risk At All are also engaged, though Ballymore runner-up Three Stripe Life and Stage Star (pulled in the Ballymore after pulling too hard) might have something to say about that.
Top of the clock in the Randox Grand National is last year’s third Any Second Now courtesy of his last gasp win over Escaria Ten in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last time. In receipt of 7lb Escaria Ten also comes into consideration and will do even more if the rains do arrive this week, but with only 2lb to find on time Fiddlerontheroof is my tentative clock-based selection.
Second in the Ladbrokes Trophy in November when virtually a distance clear of the rest, he went down narrowly at Ascot in February after making his ground far too quickly from a poor position and would have won with a more evenly-paced ride. Kept fresh for this (he ran poorly at Aintree last year having run at Cheltenham) he ought to go very well.
Aintree Selections
Betway Bowl, Thursday - back Eldorado Allen at 9/2 or bigger
Grand National, Saturday - back Fiddlerontheroof at 14/1
