Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

Hosted back then by Jimmy Tarbuck, it saw two contestants stake between five and fifty points on six possible answers which were priced between Evens and 10/1, winning the amount the odds were worth if they got it right and losing their stake if they got it wrong, with those that got through to the final playing not for points but for real money.

A game show blatantly associated so closely with gambling wouldn’t see the light of day nowadays, of course, but it was a thrilling watch for someone young just getting immersed into racing and betting as I was then and like many game shows of its time had a well-known catchphrase which was ‘well, we have a difference of opinion’ whenever the contestants disagreed.

I wonder what answer out of ‘Easy’, ‘Sharp’, ‘Circular’, ‘Downhill’, ‘Fair’ or ‘Stiff’ the contestants would have chosen to a question demanding an answer to the characteristics of the Curragh racecourse?

After all, not even ‘expert’ racecourse guides can agree - described as ‘well known for its uphill finish which can test the stamina of even the fittest horses’ in one spot, in another it’s called ‘fair…with a run-in of three furlongs that is very slightly uphill’.

Google Earth suggests there is a climb of around 11 metres from the lowest point on the round course to the winning line, with the final three furlongs ‘climbing’ 3 metres, while the six-furlong course apparently climbs some 9 metres. So, ‘stiff’ might at first glance seem the ‘right’ answer. The fastest times recorded at six furlongs at the track since 2020, however, suggest that for that particular distance, ‘easy’ is arguably the most pertinent description.

Fast times are usually a consequence of rattlingly quick ground and in some cases a following wind, and the wind (if not a strong one) was behind the runners at the Curragh on Saturday when the four races over six furlongs ended up being run in four of the fastest six winning times in the last five years with the fastest of them being the 68.91 seconds it took Bucanero Fuerte to run the Group 3 Phoenix Sprint.

In comparison, the fastest times recorded at Group 1 tracks in Britain at the trip since 2020 have been 69.02 at Haydock Park (Betfair Sprint Cup), 69.11 at York (Group 2 Duke of York Clipper Stakes), 69.36 at both Doncaster and Newmarket’s Rowley Mile, 69.45 at Goodwood and 69.47 at the July Course (2022 July Cup). Indeed, if the distance really is six furlongs, and Irish tracks all supposedly undergo rigorous measurements these days, 68.91 seconds is just under two seconds slower than the best (66.94) at Epsom’s downhill track which is the fastest track in Britain!

Fast times don’t always translate to fast timefigures, of course, and with three other races at the same trip, one at five, two at seven and another at a mile there was plenty of ‘collateral’ to be confident that the timefigures returned were as accurate as they can be at the Curragh. Conditions on a warm day may have been quickening up a little, but even so Bucanero Fuerte’s timefigure was only 97 on the back of a time that was just 0.83 seconds faster than the one recorded by Tropical Retreat who was winning a handicap off an official mark of 79 and who was carrying 2lb more than Bucanero Fuerte.

What’s interesting looking at the detailed sectionals, none of which suggest that any upgrades of significant merit were deserved, was that it was the slowest run of all four contests – 0.45 seconds than Power Blue in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes – through the first two furlongs, marginally the fastest – by 0.01 seconds over Power Blue and by no more than 0.25 seconds quicker than the other two races – through the middle two furlongs but significantly faster through the final two furlongs which Bucanero Fuerte ran 0.71 seconds faster than the juvenile Mission Central who won his maiden by eight lengths.

Given the relatively modest early speed at which the Phoenix Sprint was run, it wasn’t surprising that it was difficult to come from off the pace with the shortest of those in the betting of those who raced midfield or worse, Group 1 winner Babouche, never able to get in a blow. It was a ‘catch me if you can’ despite a much quicker early pace in the Phoenix Stakes too, where Power Blue provided Amo racing with a Group double reversing recent form with runner-up True Love.

Conditions and context had been very different then with the early pace modest and underfoot conditions on the soft side, but given his head under these much quicker conditions, and on which True Love looked uncomfortable to my eyes, Power Blue dug deep considering he went through the first two furlongs around two lengths faster than any of the other six-furlong races to score in a 106 timefigure.

That puts him among the top juveniles in what is an ordinary year so far but so far as his prospects are concerned, he’s a considerably shorter stride than Bucanero Fuerte according to data collected by Total Performance Data, looks a size smaller and will probably be at his best this year over no further than six furlongs. Mission Central looks a nice youngster, winning in a 96 timefigure, while Tropical Retreat bucked the trend of six-furlong winners coming from off the pace and looks capable of further improvement. On the same card, Diamond Necklace impressed plenty with her debut win in the fillies’ maiden in a 85 timefigure and given her sales tag and classy middle-distance family looks sure to be taking in an Oaks trial next spring.

Across at Newmarket, the slowly-run Newsells Park Stud Sweet Solera Stakes was won by Dance To The Music in a very ordinary 62 timefigure. Given the race has been won in the past two seasons by subsequent Group 1 winners Fallen Angel and Lake Victoria, connections of the winner, a nicely bred sister by Dubawi to the Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Space Blues, will no doubt be hoping races at that level fall her way too but even sectional upgrades seen through the most generous of light don’t suggest the form is anything other than average.

It’s quite possible that a better juvenile winner over the same seven-furlong trip was seen earlier on the card in the shape of Zanthos, who posted an 89 timefigure on debut albeit without any upgrades of note. She’s not untypical of a winning Crisford two-year-old newcomer in that she cost a fortune at the Breeze Ups and races in the same colours as their Middle Park winner Vandeek, and, sent off odds on, she clearly knew her job and drew clear in the final furlong to win by three lengths.

Vandeek had made his debut at Nottingham and Ed Walker also chose that venue last week for the introduction of his Starman filly, The Prettiest Star. Those who took the hint from the name and strong market support never had a moment’s worry as she travelled fluently and kicked on to beat some modest rivals easily by four and a half lengths, and though a 76 timefigure with a small upgrade isn’t much to shout about just yet she left the impression there’s plenty of improvement to come.

Another two-year-old of potential who scored last week, upsetting one who’d run to a very high level on debut himself, was Marco Botti’s Looka who overturned odds-on Ruler Of Time with a wide margin back to the rest. As with most good juvenile timefigures, it didn’t come with an upgrade of any significance but a first-time hood, switch to all-weather given his American background as well as more aggressive tactics all combined to make him look one of the best youngsters seen out so far this season at the Sunbury venue.

Not up for the Cup?

Back to Saturday and British racing’s annual marmite event, the Shergar Cup, prompted an unusually heavy torrent of disapproval from racing professionals with trainer’s wife Maureen Haggas so hot under the collar that she was reported to have said that not only was the overall standard of riding noticeably lower than usual but that one or two of the riders – unnamed but presumably those she’s not likely to see again – should not have been invited.

I differ with the admittedly passionate racing fans who frequent social media chatrooms and never fail to express their loathing of the event as I like the format and the opportunity to see how riders from different parts of the world, particularly those with whom I’m unfamiliar, cope with an unaccustomed challenge. All trainers were aware of the riders who might be on their horses at the time they made their declarations, so presumably were happy enough at that point, and given the fixture is a one-off card of six handicaps I don’t see it’s worth getting too outraged about.

I very much doubt any of the rider criticism was aimed at the home team whose collective course experience was highlighted beforehand as a potentially big advantage, but it escaped comment that neither Hollie Doyle nor Joanna Mason could deliver despite riding eight horses between them that started at 13/2 or shorter, managing just two top three finishes and no winners. Doyle has overperformed in Ascot handicaps since 2020, hitting 129% of expected winners compared to BSP chance, but for whatever reason she was down to just 98% of expected winners in all British turf handicaps in 2024 and has dropped off alarmingly on the same metric a very lowly 82% this season despite, perhaps significantly, riding a bigger proportion of horses (71% in the front half of the field compared to 64%) of horses closer to the pace according to Timeform data than in the preceding three seasons.

French tease

Scoville came to the attention of this column several weeks ago after clocking a 107 timefigure on just his second start (upgraded to 109 after a small upgrade is factored in) but, parachuted into Group 3 company at Deauville last Sunday, ended up trailing home last after setting out to make all the running as he had at Newmarket when winning that contest by fourteen lengths.

The race he contested, the Prix Daphnis, was quite a deep one for the level, ultimately won by a horse who had contested the French 2000 Guineas, and after being pressured into going harder earlier on than he had at Newmarket, evident by normalising the winning times of the two races, he dropped away to finish last of all. A tongue tie that wasn’t deemed necessary at Newmarket was perhaps something of a red flag ahead of the event, and I’ll cover the Daphnis as well as Sajir’s win in the Prix Maurice de Gheest in my French-centric column North on Sunday….this Sunday.

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