Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

Sandown’s six-race Brigadier Gerard meeting remains the best evening meeting of the year, certainly amongst those that begin at 18.00 or later, and the feature Group 3 event which is named in honour of the former Eclipse winner at the track (he also won the Westbury Stakes, now known as the Gordon Richards Stakes) saw a high-class performance, one of the best in the race this century, from Almaqam who beat Ombudsman by a length and three quarters with the remainder four lengths and more behind.

That Almaqam should have won while taking his form to a new level - he was rated 123 after the race by Timeform, which is the joint fifth-best winning performance this century – was not a surprise given the hot spell his trainer Ed Walker is in the middle of right now but the manner of it was, achieved from the front in stark contrast to the more patient tactics that has seen his career stall somewhat since landing the Heron Stakes on this card last year.

I met Ed Walker once several years ago when he was still assistant to Luca Cumani and don’t remember much about that day other than that he had a notably confident and strong handshake, but I’ve followed him with some interest since and it’s arguable that no trainer other than maybe Ralph Beckett has made greater strides in the last couple of years and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if Almaqam ends up giving him his second Group One win (after Starman in 2021) now he’s found the key to him.

A timefigure of 121 is the third best in the race since 2000 and arguably could have been 2lb higher which would have edged him past Workforce into second place behind Time Test.

Also enhancing his reputation and taking his form to a new level, not least given he was conceding the winner 3lb, was the runner-up Ombudsman. He won all his four races last year, including a pattern event in France when he had this year’s Prix Ganay runner-up Map Of Stars back in fourth, but now looks also looks set for the top level. A 121 timefigure is the same as Almaqam’s, which is the best timefigure recorded this season, matched only by Los Angeles in the Tattersalls Gold Cup.

How good is the Heron Stakes winner?

The aforementioned Heron Stakes was won this year by Opera Ballo, a horse who began his career following the same path as the 2024 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech and who has looked on occasions, when not pulling crazily hard as he did in the Craven, to be potentially as good.

Although he’s not run a lightning fast timefigure yet, he has twice managed a figure in the low hundreds, including 107 at Sandown which is his best yet despite failing to settle fully, but his sectional times indicate he is probably capable of running a figure somewhere between 116 and 119.

That latter figure is just 1lb below the timefigure Notable Speech recorded in the Guineas when he was given a 125 performance rating, but Opera Ballo looks more a work in progress than his predecessor. All the same, he looks well worth a place in the St James’s Palace Stakes with the round mile at Ascot promising to suit him very well given how tidily he won at Kempton on his first two starts.

The other races of interest on the Star Sports-sponsored Sandown card were the Henry II Stakes and the National Stakes. Just four went to post for the Henry II, one five-year-old and the other three either seven or eight, and the race provided little in the way of incident or excitement with the winner Trawlerman, who stood out on form, allowed to dictate a steady pace (winning timefigure was just 82) before drawing clear to win what was a non-event by five lengths.

There was a more open look to the National Stakes, even if just seven went to post for a race that has a long-standing reputation as a Royal Ascot pointer even if the reality is somewhat different nowadays.

Like many races on the sprint course at Sandown, a place next to the far rail in it was for many years the place to be. That quite substantial advantage has been pretty much removed over the past couple of seasons but it looked here as though that far-rail highway was back again with 25/1 shot Anthelia squeezing up the rail after long-time leader and eventual third Eskimo Pie had drifted off it.

Unbeaten in three runs now after earlier wins at Bath and Salisbury, she lacks for nothing in attitude clearly but an 85 timefigure (with no sectional upgrade) is, disregarding 2020 when the race was staged in July because of Covid, among the lowest three winning figures in the contest this century and, perhaps unsurprisingly, both the other two winners, who also went to Ascot unbeaten, made no impression in the Queen Mary.

With Royal Ascot on the horizon, I’ll be writing a two-year-old timefigure special in two weeks’ time but just to place Anthelia’s National Stakes winning timefigure in context it currently ranks joint 33rd overall in a list headed by Charles Darwin (109) and 11th among the fillies in a list headed by Lady Iman (99).

Join the Sporting Life Racing Club for FREE in just one click

Throw sectionals into the mix, however, particularly those recorded in the last two furlongs and which are freely available for all to see, then Charles Darwin’s stable-companions Italy, a winner over seven furlongs at Leopardstown in May and Brussels, who won what might well have been the hottest maiden of the year on Irish 2000 Guineas day at the Curragh, are right up there too by my reckoning.

Aidan O’Brien looked to have such a strong juvenile hand last year that it wasn’t out of the question he could have clean swept all six juvenile races (in the event he won just two) but if anything the talent at his disposal this year looks even stronger this year for all the loss of Albert Einstein for Royal Ascot is something of a blow.

Caution needed over Curragh figures?

On my return from a week away (in Croatia, highly recommended to anyone who hasn’t yet been there) I was asked by some of my colleagues to investigate the winning times at the Curragh across Guineas weekend on the suspicion that some of the distances might not have been correct.

Irish distances are supposedly remeasured ahead of every meeting which goes some way to explaining some of the odd official distances that sometimes crop up but there were two meetings in the last National Hunt season at Naas and Cork where the official distances were clearly inaccurate and Gowran Park would do well to explain why yesterday’s Flat meeting (June 2nd) had races over nine furlongs and one hundred and twenty yards and nine furlongs and one hundred yards starting from exactly the same point.

As it was, times at the Curragh were quick, historically very quick in fact, but other than the seven-furlong races being slower than expected I wasn’t confident that any of the race distance were obviously incorrect with a helping wind on all three days according to official weather station data affecting the overall times.

Smart timefigures were returned by Los Angeles (121) as mentioned earlier, Field Of Gold (118) in the Irish 2000 and Trustyourinstinct (115) in the listed Orby Stakes but upgrades were less easy to be confident about as is usually the case when the wind is behind the runners in the straight. Field Of Gold was credited with 10lb, taking his overall rating to 128, while Lake Victoria comes in at 124 after adding her upgrade to her timefigure but the wind was blowing much harder than on the previous two days and I’d be inclined to treat that overall rating with a degree of caution.

Haydock winner potential Arc player

There was good action at Haydock and York over the weekend with the Betfred John of Gaunt Stakes at the former track run in a very fast time; indeed, the 115 winning timefigure posted by Ten Bob Tony, yet another winner for Ed Walker, has only been bettered once in the race this century, by Sleeping Indian (117) back in 2005.

The winner was having his first run for seven months having been gelded in the interim, and though he’s clearly taken his form to a new level it seemed to me that if he’s to go any higher it will probably have to be at a mile (a trip he’s only tried once, in the 2000 Guineas) given he barely looked comfortable around this sharp seven furlongs at any stage.

Ten Bob Tony might have come out on top but Kinross emerges as the best horse in the race given he was conceding 5lb all round, this run proof that he’s still as good as ever despite his advancing years, while third-placed Volterra is another who arguably comes out with at least as much credit as the winner on his first run of the season, not least considering the strong hold he took from a wide draw and the fact he was hampered close home.

The Group 3 Pinnacle Stakes and the listed Achilles Stakes both ended up returning relatively modest timefigures of 92 and 81 respectively, but the former was taken by four-and-a-quarter lengths in some style by the near-white Estrange on her first run of the season, still lobbing along while her rivals were starting to be hard ridden, and only subsequent Group 1 winner (albeit in Germany) Albanova has won by a greater margin in the race this century.

Estrange looks bound for the top level too, and the merit of her performance is underlined by the fact that Shaha, the horse she beat into second place, had previously beaten Saturday’s Group 3 William Hill Bronte Cup winner Scenic in the listed Daisy Warwick at Goodwood. Unfamiliar territory it might be for David O’Meara, but it’s not difficult to see Estrange developing into a leading candidate for the Arc with her ability to handle very soft ground already proven. I’ve had a bit on at 16/1.

More from Sporting Life

• Free bets
• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.