Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

With the first Classics of the season just around the corner – the 1000 Guineas and 2000 Guineas will be run this coming weekend with the French equivalents the week after – the trials focus has quickly switched to the Betfred Derby and there were two recognised trials in the week just gone by with Epsom staging the Betfred Blue Riband and Sandown hosting the bet365 Classic Trial.

That said, neither in recent years has proved a consistently reliable pointer to the big one for all the Blue Riband was won by the top-class Cracksman in 2017 before he finished third in the Derby while Adayar finished second to Alenquer in the Classic Trial two starts before winning the 2021 Derby. It would seem likely the winners of this year’s renewals will once again look to have their work cut out if getting to Epsom.

The Blue Riband was won narrowly by Sea Scout, the 40/1 outsider of the field, for all the first two came three-and-a-half lengths clear while pretty much that same distance covered the first four in the Classic Trial which went to Aidan O’Brien’s Swagman.

Sea Scout was the beneficiary of a smart ride by Harry Davies, never far away, taking up the running over a furlong out and keeping on strongly as Swagman’s stablemate Trinity College, who was all at sea on the track, gradually hauled him back without quite managing to get there. With Sea The Stars as his sire and the Oaks winner Love Divine close in his immediate pedigree, connections will argue Sea Scout is bred for the job but he’ll need much more than the 5lb upgrade to the 98 timefigure he posted from the three-furlong marker using the detailed sectionals provided by Race IQ to merit serious consideration come the first Saturday in June.

Swagman needs more to be Derby contender

On the face of it, similar could be said about Swagman whose 109 Timeform rating still leaves him with around 10lb improvement to find to haul himself into the places at Epsom should he be supplemented but, having his first run since last July, he looked like he needed this experience to wake him up, clearly the most likely winner from two furlongs out and was well on top at the line, albeit only narrowly.

A 106 timefigure, 16lb higher than the best of his bare figures as a two-year-old when second behind Hotazhell in the Group Three Tyros Stakes, reads respectably and a 5lb upgrade across the last three furlongs combined raises that to a better-still 111.

Runner-up Windlord, who’d also finished behind Hotazhell last autumn, emerges with a combined 107 using the same metric while the third Damysus, who went into many a notebook, emerges with 110. In a race that showcased the changing of the guard in respect of burgeoning stable strength in middle-distance races with Ralph Beckett providing two of the five runners, I’d be wary of thinking Damysus might take a big step forward from this. He looked a clunky mover lacking scope on the downhill section into the home turn and only really looked happy on the steeper uphill section late on; he hung left quite markedly at Southwell too on his debut and I wouldn’t have him on my mind for Epsom.

Earlier on the Sandown card, the two other Group races, the Gordon Richards Stakes and the bet365 Mile, were won by Al Aasy and Dancing Gemini respectively.

The Gordon Richards attracted a competitive field with four-year-olds making up more than half the field but it was the oldest member in the line-up who showed his younger opponents the way, overcoming a positional bias in a steadily-run race (winning timefigure just 90) to boot with a lack of race fitness not the disadvantage for him, despite his advancing years, that it was seemingly for a couple of his younger opponents, though a 22lb upgrade from the furlong marker, so taking his overall time rating to 112, suggests to me maybe that the form possibly isn’t the sum of its parts, not least given that Almaqam didn’t get anything like the clear run here he’d had when winning the Heron Stakes here last May.

Gemini didn't need to improve at Sandown

There’s no arguing that Dancing Gemini won in good fashion but with six of his seven opponents having their first run of the campaign whereas he’d already had an outing, when looking an improved performer in the Doncaster Mile, and the only other who hadn’t, the French raider Alcantor was rather oddly dropped in by Ryan Moore after his all-the-way reappearance win at Saint-Cloud, I’d be wary of going overboard about this form too.

A timefigure of 113 that comes with a minimal upgrade is less than he posted at Doncaster even before his upgrade that day is added on and Cicero’s Gift finishing close in third too raises the alarm despite a gelding operation and the Charles Hills stable being in much better health this year.

If there was one horse I’d take from the meeting it would be Seraph Gabriel who was second to Fifth Column in the Esher Handicap. Not only was he physically the best type in the field according to my man inside the M25, he was hampered twice yet still put that interference behind him to run easily the fastest last furlong. A minimum 12lb upgrade from the furlong-pole (minimum because of the interference he suffered) raises his overall timerating to 106 and he strikes me as one whose form might take off when given the opportunity to try ten furlongs.

Another horse who won over the weekend about whom I wasn’t quite as bowled over by as much as some others whose observations I’ve either seen or heard is Charles Darwin who scored at Navan on Saturday.

A five-length win in a 96 timefigure in a race that his stable has won in recent years with Camille Pissarro and River Tiber are sure signs he’s going to be among the best two-year-olds that turn at up at Royal Ascot but he had the advantage of the rail and left me the impression that while he might be better suited by this near-six furlong trip than the five he had been beaten over on his debut (when he raced wide in the centre of the track) it wouldn’t surprise me if faster conditions than these (Timeform called the ground soft) catch him out if he turns up at the Royal meeting.

That’s not to say he won’t develop into a smart two-year-old further down the line, of course, but that same scenario caught out Whistlejacket (who won the race after Charles Darwin, in a 102 timefigure elevated to 107 after upgrades are included) last year and I wouldn’t be in a rush to take too short a price about Charles Darwin in six weeks’ time, not least if he turns up in the Norfolk. Elsewhere on the card, Kyprios won the listed Vintage Crop Stakes in a slow time (timefigure just 52) against limited opposition and the probability is he is as good as ever.

Winter Millions key for Skelton next year?

I can’t say I’ve been following the jumps trainers' title race between Dan Skelton and Willie Mullins too closely over the last few weeks if for no other reason than the outcome has had about it for a while a seemingly inevitable predictability that has mirrored the slide out of the automatic League One promotion places from a similarly dominant position of my hometown football team Wycombe Wanderers.

Unlike Wycombe’s capitulation, which was entirely of their own making after their new manager abandoned the attacking football that had got them into second place in the League for an exasperatingly negative defensive game plan, Skelton could do little but sit and suffer, sparring where he could, before facing the expected crushing on the final day of the season at Sandown where he saddled six runners to Mullins’ 13.

Knowing the master planner that Skelton is, an enhanced focus on the Berkshire Winter Millions fixture where the (very good) prize money is earned relatively cheaply compared to other ‘Festival’ fixtures and Mullins doesn’t target properly (yet, anyway) wouldn’t come as a surprise, while he’ll also have a full season with The New Lion and may well campaign Grey Dawning differently.

Neither ran at Sandown where five of Skelton’s six runners were unplaced while Mullins ran riot scoring with Il Etait Temps (timefigure 165) in the bet365Celebration Chase, Gaelic Warrior (timefigure 148 in a ragbag of an Oaksey Chase) and Jump Allen (120) in the concluding handicap hurdle.

The bet365 Gold Cup went the way of the horse I fancied strongly for the National Hunt Challenge Cup, Resplendent Grey, with even the champion jump jockey Sean Bowen unable to get the tune out of him that day that first-time cheekpieces (121 timefigure at the end of an ordinarily-run race) did on Saturday.

Prix Ganay card thoughts

With no French review or preview until the Guineas weekend I’ll run quickly through the highlights of Prix Ganay weekend at ParisLongchamp here.

The big race and the only Group One on the card saw last year’s Grand Prix de Paris winner and Arc fourth Sosie get the better of the progressive Map Of Stars by a neck or so in a tactical affair which might well have seen a different result on much softer ground given Map Of Stars struggled to hold his place on the home turn as Sosie seized the initiative before staying on strongly, running the fastest last 600m according to the tracking data, without ever looking as though he would quite get there despite having the advantage of race fitness and distance suitability over the runner-up.

Royal Rhyme ran as well as could have been expected in third while Al Riffa and regular British visitor Horizon Doe were slightly below their best with the latter nowadays not looking quite the horse he was.

The sole three-year-old who finished ahead of Sosie in the Arc last year, Aventure, also made her reappearance on the card a winning one in the Group Three Prix Allez France. She wasn’t hard pressed to win by two-and-a-half lengths in a race in which she had significantly more in hand on form should she have needed to call on it and is currently joint second favourite in most lists for the 2025 Arc at 16/1 alongside Sosie.

One horse not quoted as he’s ineligible to run given he’s a gelding is Candelari but he’s not far off their level after just four runs in a career which only started in December and he would probably have retained his unbeaten record with a bit to spare had he had more race experience under his belt and his rider Mickael Barzalona not got himself out of his ground in a race in which the pace increased sharply on the home turn.

A 33.49 last 600m, just 0.03 seconds slower than Map Of Stars managed in the Ganay, suggests he’s got a Group race or two in him over 2400m or more this year when the cards fall more kindly.

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