Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis on Guineas weekend at Newmarket

John Gosden’s wait for his first domestic 2000 Guineas winner rumbles on after Field Of Gold’s defeat by Ruling Court in the latest renewal, sponsored this time around by Betfred after QIPCO relinquished an association that had begun in 2011 when the outstanding Frankel put up arguably the most remarkable performance in the race in living memory, one that never tires of being watched over and over again.

Around 15 lengths clear three furlongs out with his rider Tom Queally sat motionless, Frankel won by six lengths on his way to a 135 Timeform performance rating and 136 timefigure, neither of which have come close to being matched since, though Dawn Approach earned a 130 rating in 2013 and Night Of Thunder posted a 125 timefigure in 2014 when Field Of Gold’s sire Kingman, who was also trained by Gosden, finished second.

Kingman arguably got to the front too soon in his Guineas having made his move from the rear early in what was obviously a very strongly-run race and was run down on the line by one who’d made his move much later and whom he had beaten comfortably in his trial.

On the contrary the more extensive detailed sectional information available these days suggest that Field of Gold got going too late, whether that was because he wasn’t close enough up as his trainer suggested under conditions that were faster by some way than they had been at the Craven meeting - the time taken by the six-furlong handicap winner More Thunder, for example, was almost three and a half seconds or around 18 lengths faster than he had covered the same distance at the Craven meeting – or because he needs further and didn’t handle the Dip as his rider Kieran Shoemark reported.

Whichever - or both - of those opinions you subscribe to, I don’t doubt that as the race was run, Field Of Gold was the best horse in the Guineas, and arguably by a couple of lengths too.

In a race in which Ruling Court’s winning timefigure was a very lowly 87 after a very steady early gallop, the lowest this century, Field Of Gold ended up doing all his best work in the final furlong which he ran according to the RaceIQ data in 11.92 seconds compared to Ruling Court’s 12.13 and third-placed Shadow Of Light’s 12.29.

Using new updated sectional upgrade methodology currently being trialled at Timeform, that difference is a 7lb higher upgrade than Ruling Court for the same section and 11lb higher than Shadow Of Light; weighted upgrades across each of the last three furlongs would still have Field Of Gold emerging as the best horse with his 13lb upgrade 4lb higher than Ruling Court’s and 5lb higher than Shadow Of Light’s.

The 2014 Guineas was a very strong race. Kingman went through the rest of the season undefeated, winning his remaining four races including the Irish 2000 Guineas by five lengths and the St James’ Palace where he left Night of Thunder for dead to win easily by two-and-a-half lengths, while the third home Australia won his next three, including the Derby and the Juddmonte International. Fifth placed Charm Spirit also won his remaining four races including the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and the eighth home Kingston Hill won the St Leger.

Gosden's post-Guineas record with his beaten Guineas runners which also include Raven’s Pass and Roaring Lion is reason enough for him to be confident Field Of Gold will bag at least Group One during the remainder of the season which for him reportedly begins in the St James’ Palace.

On the contrary, Ruling Court has the Derby in his sights and will go there as a dual Guineas winner having won the Dubai version easily back in March with no stamina doubts according to his connections being a son of Justify who has already sired a Derby winner in City of Troy. Shadow Of Light, who won the Middle Park last year by four lengths when hitting easily the highest top speed according to RaceIQ, is reportedly set to stay at a mile for now but having hit easily the top speed again in the 2000, might well be more difficult to beat dropped back in trip.

Cosmic already at level needed to win Jersey

With The Lion In Winter (who inflicted Ruling Court’s only defeat so far in last season’s Acomb) and his substitute Twain missing from the Guineas, this year’s renewal in all likelihood didn’t have the same strength in depth as in 2014 and another missing from the race who would have been well worth his place in the line-up was Cosmic Year who instead turned up in the listed King Charles II Stakes on the opening day of the meeting.

I wrote about him at some length after his win at Kempton in early April, after which I suggested his sectional upgrade at the end of a sizzling last two furlongs could have pegged him at 116 or so on overall timeratings, making him at the time as exciting a prospect as the also-unbeaten Opera Ballo (who went and ruined his copybook by pulling ridiculously hard in the Craven) and he looked worth every bit of that ballpark figure at Newmarket switched to turf as he got the better of the potentially smart Marvelman by a length-and-a-half after racing with his head in the air a bit faced with a proper battle for the first time and then edging right.

By Kingman out of the very smart but quirky mare Passage of Time, and so a half-brother to the high-class ten-furlong performer Time Test, Cosmic Year’s final two-furlong sectionals suggest he’s worth a 4lb upgrade on top of his 112 timefigure; that level wouldn’t be enough without a bit more improvement to win the Jersey Stakes, an obvious next step given all his races so far have been at seven furlongs, but he's sure to have learned plenty from his Friday experience and will probably be better in time at a mile as well.

Ballydoyle Guineas woes continue

For the second year in succession, and just the second time this century, too, Aidan O’Brien ran a combined total of just two horses in both Guineas and collectively they fared even worse than in 2024 with the best of his two runners managing just sixth place.

He hasn’t had a horse finish in the first two in either contest since 2021, which largely coincides with the decreasing influence of his Galileo in Ballydoyle operation and is a far cry from the period between 2005 and 2019 when he won both races in the same season four times.

The void created by O’Brien’s demise, if that is the right term, has been filled by Charlie Appleby whose Godolphin yard won both races in the same season for the first time. He hasn’t cut much ice in the 1000, even in recent years, but his Desert Flower was the leading two-year-old filly in 2024 having won the Fillies’ Mile over course and distance by five lengths in a 114 timefigure and though she didn’t run close to either her performance rating that day (118) or timefigure she’d clearly trained on well enough – albeit wrapped in cotton wool as her trainer later admitted – to see off a pair of Ollie Sangster inmates, Flight and Simmering.

The 1000 was run at a stronger pace than the 2000 with the finishing speeds from each of the last three-furlong poles being markedly lower and the result was pretty much a case of ‘what you saw you got’.

At 102, the overall timefigure was unexceptional, only three winning timefigures this century having been slower, and with two-and-a-half lengths covering the first seven, the form clearly has its limitations. The disappointment of the race from a timefigure perspective was the performances of the first two in the Fred Darling in which Simmering was seventh; Duty First, who’d won that race in a 109 timefigure, once again looked ill at ease on the track as she had a two-year-old while runner-up Hey Boo probably wasn’t far if at all below her Fred Darling form but never threatened.

Two-year-old impresses on the clock

One of Appleby’s other winners at Newmarket on a glorious weekend (and not just in Suffolk) for the Godolphin outfit was Cinderella’s Dream who lost her unbeaten record in the 1000 last year on her only start in Britain but went on to win the Grade One Belmont Oaks and finish second in the Grade Two Breeders' Cup Filly & Mares Turf.

Second on her reappearance at Meydan to a mare who went on to win a Grade One at Keeneland, Cinderella’s Dream got her revenge on the filly who beat her in the 1000, Elmalka, and in some style too, scoring by four-and-a-half lengths in a what might have been an ordinary 85 timefigure but can be upgraded using the new trialling upgrade formula to 106 with her last furlong converting into a 14lb higher upgrade than Elmalka was worth from the same point.

The remaining listed or pattern races at Newmarket across the three days were the Palace House Stakes won by Rumstar in 110, the Ellen Chaloner Stakes which was won for the seemingly-rejuvenated Henry Candy stable by Tiger Bay in 104 (could be 109 after upgrades are included), the strongly-run Pretty Polly was won by Falakeyah in 101, the Jockey Club Stakes won by Bellum Justum in 86 and the Newmarket Stakes which went to Alpine Trail in 83.

Outside of the pattern races, the most interesting performance for me was put up by the two-year-old Spicy Marg in one of the divisions of the two-year-old novice stakes on Sunday.

There might have been only four runners but her winning time as a fair bit quicker than the Godolphin colt Rising Power managed in the second division and all her last three individual furlongs were faster too, including a noteworthy 10.8 penultimate one, which could arguably give her an overall timerating of 100. Her dam Main Desire won the Marygate after scoring on her debut and she already looks up to that standard should connections choose to follow the same path the week after next.

Eyecatchers from Goodwood

Away from Newmarket, three performances caught my eye at Goodwood.

Amiloc, who was unbeaten in two novice events at Kempton as a two-year-old, including when giving 7lb to a horse who finished second subsequently in the Zetland Stakes, made an impressive return on turf, winning by over three lengths in a 109 timefigure in the manner of one who’ll be Group Two or Three class when finally sent over a mile-and-a-quarter or more seeing as he is by Postponed out of an Authorized mare.

Shaha ran a combined overall 107 timerating by my calculations in the listed Daisy Warwick and, being by Cracksman out of the Prix de l’Opera runner-up Board Meeting, will surely start making up for lost time over a mile-and-a-half and possibly more very soon. And finally, like Amiloc, Consolidation is another from the Ralph Beckett yard. A 102 timefigure that could be 105 after upgrades in a seven-furlong handicap on his reappearance around a sharp track when he really wants a stiff mile at least is a very promising start to the new season and his trainer probably has the Britannia at Royal Ascot in mind already.

If space allows, I’ll spin through Punchestown next week but the headline winning figures on the clock at a Festival where British raiders excelled themselves for those interested were posted over hurdles by Final Demand (157) and Teahupoo (156) and over fences by Marine Nationale (167) and James Du Berlais (157).

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