Graeme North analysis of Arc weekend action

Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and more

By Graeme North

Horse Racing

Wed October 08, 2025 · 2M ago

Our timefigure and French racing expert reflects on the weekend's key action at ParisLongchamp.

In the first of my two French Arc meeting previews last weekend I wrote ‘'Wisdom comes easily after the fact. Undoubtedly, there will be many punters come Sunday evening rueing missed betting opportunities at the two-day Arc meeting because of facts either underestimated or knowledge not taken the time to seek out or investigate more closely’.

I added that I hoped I wouldn’t be among that sizeable cohort but while I was mostly right with my pre-Arc assertion that last year’s runner-up Aventure was being overestimated in the betting, I ended up misjudging not only the strength of the Japanese challenge but also the effect of the draw which I now know with the benefit of research since has become increasingly important since the introduction in 2019 of the ‘cutaway’.

I’ll add some further detail as I sweep through Longchamp’s two-day meeting as well as touching on the Sun Chariot at Newmarket.

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The Arc meeting started off on Saturday ground that was officially 3.8 on the penetrometer, quite a change from the 3.3 it had read on Friday before showers hit the track, and all but the last two races (when conditions deteriorated) could fairly be described as being run on ground I would call good to soft after making allowance for rail movements which impacted race times.

Nominally at least, the opening race, the Prix du Chaudenay won by Derby third Tennessee Stud, was run in the fourth fastest time since the meeting retuned to Longchamp in 2018, though time comparisons with previous years on the first day can’t be taken at face value because the exact distance of those earlier renewals on account of rail movements are unknown.

All the same, the pace looked a true one, with Tennessee Stud running a slow final 600m compared with both Caballo De Mar and Consent who won the other staying events on the card, and though his stable companion Emit ran the faster last 200m by some way, Tennessee Stud always looked to have things under control.

At the end of 4000m in the Prix du Cadran, Caballo De Mar covered the last 600m just 0.4 seconds slower than the smart miler Ridari managed in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein later on the card, so continuing his remarkable progress, but it was a weak renewal in all honesty, buoyed in number if not in quality by some late supplementary entries, and he just had a bit too much pace at the end of the day for the admirable if not-so-good-as-he-used-to-be Coltrane who was finishing placed in the race for the second year running.

Caballo De Mar has the measure of Coltrane

The Criterium D’Automne, the valuable two-year-old sales race for those purchased as yearlings at Arqana in 2024 and run just before the Wildenstein, attracted a typical field with plenty of no-hopers and demonstrated once again where large fields of inconsistent talent is concerned, the draw isn’t the decisive factor it can be in more competitive affairs with the winner Cape Orator coming from the widest stall of all and rallying strongly to beat Inis Mor, who too was wide with only four drawn outside him.

Both horses have had their pre-race ‘p’ retained in the expectation of further improvement when they step up to a mil- and-a-quarter but race favourite Isaac Newton has lost his for now after a second successive performance barely any better than his first.

Ridari, who races in a hood, is a horse I’ve long had plenty of time for, looking a work in progress despite close-up finishes out of the frame in both the French 2000 Guineas and the French Derby, and he finally repaid that faith after a couple of frustrating displays since with Mickael Barzalona back on board after he’d missed the ride on the quirky son of Churchill in the Jacques le Marois last time, staying on strongly in the manner of what was to transpire for the same connections 24 hours later and deny Quddwah in the last few strides at the conclusion of a well-run Qatar Prix Daniel Wildenstein that saw front-running Alcantor do far too much in front.

Consent and Luke Morris win the Prix de Royallieu.

Ridari’s last 600m - 35.16 seconds - was the fastest all day but surprisingly the fastest last 200m of all according to the official tracking data, was posted by Consent in the Royallieu.

That the first three home - Santorini Star was second and the home-trained Rabbit’s Foot was third – occupied the first three positions throughout ought to have hinted by itself that the pace wasn’t strong, and the winner reversed Park Hill form with the runner-up in no uncertain terms on ground that almost certainly would have suited her better than the faster conditions she’d encountered at Deauville (where she also ran into trouble in the short straight) and Doncaster on her previous two starts.

Conditions looked to deteriorate before the Prix Dollar which turned into a something of a slog up a longer straight than in use for the earlier races on account of the second winning post after Rashabar had gone off hard, the winner First Look staying on strongly to turn in a career-best effort chased home by Bay City Roller, a 37.32 final 600vm for the winner being comfortably the slowest of all the Group races.

Review of the Sunday action

Come Sunday the official penetrometer reading had eased even further still to 4.1 but the opening contest, the Prix Marcel Boussac, quickly quashed any suggestion the ground might be slower than the day before with the winner Diamond Necklace recording both the second fastest last 600m and last 200m in the race since tracking was made public in 2019 despite the penetrometer suggesting conditions were much slower than they had been in 2022 and 2024 when those same finishing splits really were slow.

Indeed, a couple of times on a day where fresh ground was in use suggested the ground was verging on good and Jean-Luc Lagardere winner Puerto Rico was the second successive winner on the day to dip under 12 seconds for the final 200m, ridden from the front in similar fashion to in the Champagne Stakes last time (when he’d shown improved form and had Cape Orator back in third) to see off a couple of French-trained runners with a fair bit of ease with what was perhaps the best two-year-old performance of the year so far.

Thumbs up from Christophe Soumillon after Puerto Rico wins the Lagardere at Longchamp

The ground for the Prix de l’Abbaye, the only race run on the straight course all afternoon, was a bit faster than either of the round courses in use but as ever the usual rail draw advantage applied, compounded by the trailblazers being drawn next to the far rail, and Nunthorpe winner Asfoora bounced back from her modest Flying Five display to win authoritatively, easily the fastest through the last 600m and 200m sections though Star Of Lady M pushed her close through the final section after finding herself in a poor spot soon after the start.

Mgheera was another who ran well in trying circumstances, slowly away and then having to weave her way through and briefly disputing the lead approaching the final 200m.

How big is the draw bias in the Arc?

I mentioned earlier on that the since the cutaway was introduced in the Arc in 2019 low numbers have dominated but the extent of that control still surprised me after looking into it more closely – using the percentage of runners each stall has beaten, effectively how many rivals from those stalls horses have finished in front of, stall 1 comes in at 71%, stall 2 comes in at 62% and stall 3 comes in at 66% when 50% would be expected if things were roughly equal with the average race performance from those stalls coming in a 119, 118 and 117 respectively, higher than all other stalls among those that been involved in five or more runnings apart from stall 9.

Daryz’s winning time was the second fastest since the cutaway has been introduced, dipping under 2m 30 seconds much as Ace Impact had far more easily in 2023 on ground Timeform called good to firm.

Both his last 600m and last 200m were the fastest of all in the Arc, but the official tracking data also unveiled some surprising revelations. Sixth-placed Arrow Eagle, for example, ran the second fastest last 600m despite apparently covering over 5m further than the winner, while Grand Prix de Paris winner Leffard and French Oaks winner Gezora both ran an eye-catching last 200m sections from a hopeless position.

Mikael Barzalona celebrates on Daryz

Despite all the timing expertise at their disposal, the official distance between Minnie Hauk in second and Sosie in third was recorded as five-and-a-half lengths despite the time difference between the pair being measured as 0.76 seconds.

That would suggest a conversion scale of in excess of seven lengths a second which is clearly nonsense under conditions the authorities described as ‘very soft’. Old-fashioned visual measurement puts the distance between the pair as nearer four-and-a-half lengths.

The Prix de l’Opera saw Barnavara holding on under a well-judged ride, running the last 600m slower than all of the six horses that followed her home, among whom Grand Stars was arguably the unluckiest of all (once again!) settled too far back but running both the fastest last 600m and the fastest last 200m, though the tracking data showed that third-place One Look hit the highest top speed of all.

Rail-hugging Maranoa Charlie won the Prix de la Foret under a well-controlled front-running ride but things might have been different had runner-up Zarigana not been ridden quite so confidently, her rider seemingly keen to put her head in front on the line only to misjudge seemingly the amount of ground he had to make up on the winner, or fourth-placed More Thunder not been drawn so wide which led to him having to drop in at the rear of the field, a position he still held turning for home.

The tracking data shows that he ran the final 600m in 34.78 seconds while Zarigana covered the same in 34.95; only sixth-placed Exxtra among the others managed less than 35.40.

Across at Newmarket, Fallen Angel won her third Group 1 of the season, the Sun Chariot Stakes, with her best performance yet, one fully backed up by the clock with a 118 timefigure her highest yet 6lb in excess of the 112 she recorded in the Matron Stakes last time out at Leopardstown.

This time in 2024 she was running in the Prix de l’Opera but she’s not been tried at a mile-and-a-quarter since and seems likely to have her next run in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot. The straight mile won’t faze her given it didn’t stop her winning the Prix Rothschild in August but maybe stepping out of female-only company will.