Ben Linfoot Value Bet: York Dante Festival day two tips

Recommended Bets: Value Bet

1pt win Line Of Reason in 2.20 York at 16/1

1pt win Orient Class in 2.20 York at 16/1

1pt win Here Comes When in 4.05 York at 18/1

1pt win Donncha in 4.05 York at 11/1

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The Betfred Dante Stakes at York usually offers up strong hints for the Investec Derby at Epsom and it may well do again this year, but the races are likely to be run on very different surfaces following Wednesday’s downpour on the Knavesmire.

With the ground riding soft there are question marks over the market leaders, Cracksman and Crystal Ocean, as neither have run in conditions as testing as this. Both are inexperienced and they probably don’t deserve to take up the percentage of the market that they do, but finding one against them isn’t easy.

Rekindling looks a touch more battle-hardened after winning the Ballysax and he should relish the conditions, but there’s a lot of potential against him with 7/1 in mind and I’m inclined to just watch the race and try and learn something for the Derby.

Which is fine, as York offers up some terrific handicap puzzles as usual. And they don’t come much more puzzling than the Betfred TV Hambleton Handicap at 4.05.

A total of 20-runners could line up in this and there are a couple of unexposed types with plenty of potential that dominate the top of the market in Thikriyaat and Chelsea Lad.

Both could end up being better than their current marks, but Thikriyaat hasn’t been seen for 264 days and Chelsea Lad was pulled up in the Spring Cup last time, so there are risks attached with backing either.

That Spring Cup, though, could be the key race. The third and fourth, Fastnet Tempest and George William, finished first and second in the Victoria Cup at Ascot on Saturday, the 13th Zhui Feng followed them home in third and the 15th, Master Carpenter, hosed up at York on Wednesday.

It looks really strong form and Another Touch, who was second in that race, has to be respected back at York where he ran so well at the end of last season. The problem is he went up a couple of pounds for finishing second again, and there is a question mark over the ground for him.

With that in mind I’d rather back the consistent DONNCHA again at 11/1 (Betfred, 10s generally).

Robert Eddery’s six-year-old was seventh in the Spring Cup at Newbury, finding a bit of trouble in the run as he so often he does. He’s not an easy horse to win with and the handicapper doesn’t give him any slack, but everything is in place for him to end a long losing run on Thursday.

This time last year he was fifth in this race on good to firm ground, off a 1lb higher mark, where he ran on well after finding a bit of trouble on his way through once again.

The key thing this year is the ground, as he handles soft better than most. He was second in a Spring Mile on soft and second in a competitive Sandown handicap, on Eclipse day last year, in the same sort of conditions.

His recent form, when third in the Lincoln and seventh at Newbury, shows he’s in really good heart and it proves he’s competitive off his current rating. He just needs a little bit of luck, and if he gets that in ideal conditions in a race he’s run well in before, he could finally get another win on the board.

Apart from the unexposed ones at the top of the betting the biggest danger could be Andrew Balding’s HERE COMES WHEN and at 18/1 (bet365, 16s generally) he’s worth getting on side as well.

Good enough to run fourth to Solow in the Group One Sussex Stakes at Goodwood a couple of years ago, Here Comes When was rated 116 in his prime and he’s still only seven. Off a mark of 103 he can do some damage in top handicaps when he gets his conditions and that’s certainly the case on Thursday.

Twice a Group Two winner in soft ground, he’s at his best when the mud is flying and he’s hardly encountered such conditions in the last year or so while he’s dropped 13lb in the weights.

His only run in a handicap in that time was in the Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day at Ascot last October, but he was slowly away that day and got no sort of run thereafter. Beaten only four lengths in the end after staying on strongly late on, the run was another hint that he’s highly capable in this sort of grade.

With Balding’s horses going really well he’s worth chancing at a big price considering his falling handicap mark, that classy back form and the ideal ground conditions.

Finally, I like two of Paul Midgley’s sprinters in the opening Betfred ‘Supports Jack Berry House’ Handicap over five furlongs.

Midgely didn’t have any luck in the sprint on the first day, but a couple of wins at Thirsk in recent weeks suggests his team are just coming to hand and he’s well capable of lining one up for a big York handicap.

Indeed, LINE OF REASON (16/1 General) won for him at this track three years ago and he’s of interest off a mark of 97 in this race.

That York win came off a rating of 92 and he’s hardly run off a mark in the 90s since, as he’s plied his trade in Group and Listed races for much of the last three years. He was rated 111 at his best and though he’s struggled recently to get his head in front he’s looking well-handicapped again now.

Last time, at Pontefract, he ran a good race in fourth behind Judicial, who won again at Chester last week, while the third, Northgate Lad, ran well here on Wednesday.

It looks good form and Line Of Reason stayed on well and he probably built on his Musselburgh comeback third on his previous start.

The cheekpieces are back on for only the second time in his life and while they didn’t work the first time they were used there were extenuating circumstances; it was his first run since being gelded and first start of the season.

They’re worth another go, then, as his half-sister Sister Clement won in first-time cheekpieces and she won in soft ground as well, which gives hope he’ll be able to handle the conditions.

That is the big question mark with him, as connections have always felt he’s a fast ground horse, but he did run second on soft at Pontefract the only time he’s been let loose on such ground.

He’s worth chancing, but with the soft ground in mind I can’t let his stablemate ORIENT CLASS (16/1 General) go unbacked either as he’ll love the conditions.

By Orientor, it’s no surprise he loves testing ground and he’s proved it plenty of times including when winning on heavy at Haydock last July. 

Last time at Thirsk he ran a really nice race on much faster ground when second to Excessable, travelling really well when moving into contention.

This is tougher, but from the bottom of the weights on ground he loves he’ll never have a better chance in this class. 

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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +355.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). 

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Posted at 1700 BST on 17/05/17.