Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Cheltenham Festival day 3 tips
Our flagship tipster Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets on day three of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival.
Value Bet: Cheltenham Day Three Selections
It has already been a good week for Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary, thanks to the continued success of his Gigginstown operation at the Cheltenham Festival, and he could finally win his own race so strong is his hand this year.
Willie Mullins’ Un De Sceaux is a worthy favourite on his two-mile chasing form, but this is his first go over further over fences and he would ideally prefer softer ground as well.
He looks beatable and so does Uxizandre, a horse that ran better than could be expected when he chased home Un De Sceaux on his first run in 22 months at Cheltenham last time.
Second place fell into his lap that day, though, as those around him floundered, and I wouldn’t take his proximity to Mullins’ horse at face value. At 4/1 he looks very short as he’s no guarantee to back-up that run after so long off the track.
That brings me to the Gigginstown duo, with Empire Of Dirt well-fancied as the general 100/30 favourite. He’s improved over three miles for my money, however, and at the general 8/1 I’d much rather back the white-capped SUB LIEUTENANT.
This horse has improved markedly since joining Henry de Bromhead, mainly because his new handler has got him jumping brilliantly.
He got his act together for his new trainer straight away when winning at Limerick, while his three-and-a-half length victory over Outlander at Down Royal was the first of a trio of excellent performances.
After that win he was beaten just over two lengths by strong Gold Cup fancy Djakadam in the John Durkan at Punchestown, while last time he lost out to subsequent Irish Gold Cup winner Sizing John in the Kinloch Brae at Thurles.
Beaten just over two lengths again that day, he might’ve even won the race had the last-fence not been omitted and the winner was a strong fancy for this race until he forced himself into the Gold Cup reckoning.
That batch of form, all over two-and-a-half miles, looks the most relevant in the race to my eyes and I think he’ll love Cheltenham as I can see him gaining lengths at his fences so neat is he over his obstacles.
David Mullins rides him, as he has for three of his four starts for de Bromhead, and 8/1 represents good value with question marks over those above him in the market.
The Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle looks Unowhatimeanharry’s to lose, but, while it’s perhaps clutching at straws, he is very short at 5/4 considering he hasn’t run on conditions as good as this since his novice days.
With the ground in mind, I do think we’re about to see the best of his old rival BALLYOPTIC (16/1 general) who performed at his best earlier in the season on good conditions at Chepstow and Wetherby.
In softer ground he looked like he would’ve given Unowhatimeanharry a real race in the Ascot fog in December when he came down at the last, while the first-time tongue-tie applied on Thursday, on the back of a wind operation, might explain a slightly below-par run when fourth in the Cleeve.
Freshened up since, I’ve always thought Cheltenham would suit this horse as he stays well and responds to pressure, and at 16/1 I can’t resist him despite his three defeats to the favourite this campaign.
Earlier on the card the Pertemps is as tricky as ever, but I’m keen on the chances of a couple at the prices and I’ll split stakes on the pair.
Firstly, ROCKLANDER looks a big price at 25/1 (general) for Tom George.
This horse has been consistent all season with two victories and three seconds from five starts and he’s been improving with each run, including when a three-and-a-half length second to Impulsive Star at Exeter last time in a qualifier for this race.
He would’ve finished closer, too, but for a mistake two from home and he does get a 10lb pull at the weights with Neil Mulholland’s horse here. Impulsive Star has a good chance himself and is priced accordingly at 10/1, but I’m not sure Rocklander should be over twice the price.
Crucially there could be further improvement to come from him now he tackles this trip on better ground, and he does have some good course form in the bank thanks to his second to Cogry on New Year’s Day.
I want him on side at 25s and I have to have one from the Irish contingent, too. Presenting Percy and Isleofhopendreams are two that spearhead their challenge, but ELECTRIC CONCORDE has the beating of both at these weights and at 25/1 (general) he’s been overlooked.
Trainer Jim Culloty saddled Lord Windermere to a couple of famous Cheltenham Festival successes for the same owner, Dr Ronan Lambe, and he could well have another with Electric Concorde.
He knuckled down well to win the Pertemps qualifier at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting with both Isleofhopendreams and Presenting Percy in behind.
Electric Concorde is 15lb better off with Isleofhopendreams and 6lb better off with Presenting Percy in the Pertemps, and while both have won well since to earn their hikes they have also franked Culloty’s horse’s form.
The selection was pulled up on his latest start at Thurles which helps explain his price, but he’s worth forgiving one bad run and he could well improve for the better ground considering his pedigree and his bumper form.
Later on Thomas Crapper is 6lb well-in under a penalty in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate and he should love the ground.
I’m just a bit concerned that his Newbury renaissance was only 12 days ago and given he’s contracting in price all the time I’d rather back Kim Bailey’s UN ACE each-way at 40/1 (general price 1/4 1,2,3,4).
Bailey won this race with outsider Darna a couple of years ago and Un Ace is overpriced to repeat the trick for the yard considering he’s been given a real chance by the handicapper.
Rated 149 at his peak, he was sent off 6/1 when running off 144 in Darna’s Plate, where he finished 13th, while he’s been placed in a handicap hurdle at Cheltenham off the same mark.
He’s been lightly-raced over three miles and further this season, dropping 7lb in the process, and off a mark of 137 he’s weighted to go well now he drops back in trip.
His last run at Cheltenham in December wasn’t a bad one at all, as he was sixth to Theatre Guide and shaped better than his finishing position over 3m2f.
That performance suggests the drop back to 2m5f is a good idea and first-time cheekpieces are added as well, perhaps with the drop in distance in mind.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +377.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 GMT on 15/03/17.
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