Ben Linfoot's Value Bet: Northumberland Plate and Newcastle Saturday

Recommended bets:

1pt win Northgate Lad in 1.50 Newcastle at 14/1

1pt win Lord George in 3.30 Newcastle at 12/1

1pt e.w Suegioo in 3.30 Newcastle at 33/1

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In terms of quality the early signs are the Stobart Rail Northumberland Plate at Newcastle is not suffering at all following the switch from turf to Tapeta.

For the second year running you’ve needed a horse rated 92 just to get in the contest and this time there are eight horses rated 100 or higher in the race.

That’s all good news, but it doesn’t make it any easier for punters still scratching their heads over the draw. Low used to be good, very good, but while the configuration of the track is the same with a short run to the first bend it’s probably best to keep an open mind regarding any potential draw bias for now.

Antiquarium did win the first Plate on Tapeta from stall three, but those that finished immediately behind him broke from stalls 12, 20, 18 and 17, while the consolation race one-two came from stalls 16 and 20.

With that in mind I’m going to forget about starting positions and concentrate on those that look nicely handicapped, starting with James Fanshawe’s LORD GEORGE at 12/1 (General).

It’s 22 years since Fanshawe won the Northumberland Plate with Bold Gait but with his horses running well and three darts to aim at the board he has a good chance of finally winning the race for the second time.

Higher Power is fancied most by the market at 8/1, but Lord George looks underestimated at 12s as he ran really well on his seasonal reappearance at this track and he’s crying out for the step up in trip.

A close third behind Wild Hacked at Newcastle on his seasonal reappearance over a mile and a half, he ran on strongly that day and he also shaped like a stayer at Ascot last time when third again behind Appeared.

Those two runs were the best of his career so he’s definitely improved again at four and it could be he’s a better horse on the all-weather given two of his three career wins have come at Kempton and Wolverhampton.

He’s a half-brother to a couple of hurdlers in France and he just looks like another son of Sir Percy that needs a good test of stamina to see him at his best. Burmese, Mirsaale and Van Percy are three of the more high-profile progeny of the Derby winner that were best over a trip.

Lord George could be another and with that good run at Newcastle in mind he might be worth catching now while he’s on his upward curve. At 12/1, he makes the most appeal from those towards the top of the market.

If Lord George is an up and comer, then SUEGIOO is anything but, yet at 33/1 (Boylesports, William Hill ¼ 1,2,3,4, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) he’s in good enough form off a competitive mark to warrant an each-way interest.

He has to be an each-way bet with a career strike-rate of two wins from 41 races, but while he’s clearly a little bit quirky and difficult to win with the handicapper has finally given him a chance to notch up the third victory of his life.

Rated 109 at the start of last season, he acquitted himself pretty well in Group One and Two company in 2016 against horses that were a level above him.

Dropped 9lb to a mark of 100, he’s now running off his lowest rating for two years and the recent signs are he’s now running in a grade that he’s capable of winning in.

Two starts ago, at Haydock, he was beaten in a photo by Yorkidding after staying on strongly up the rail, while last time at Royal Ascot he didn’t run badly at all in fifth behind Thomas Hobson over two and a half miles.

Drawn around the pace from stall seven, it’s likely he will be dropped out and taken the shortest route by Tony Hamilton, but if they go hard enough up front he’ll be passing plenty in the straight.

Second and fifth in this race off similar marks when it was run on turf, there is hope his first run on an all-weather surface since he shed his maiden tag at Lingfield could spark an improvement in form as well.

He could run into trouble, find a way to lose or just simply be beaten by more unexposed rivals, but, at 33/1, the positives significantly out-weigh the negatives as far as I’m concerned.

Finally, you may have heard it was Brian Ellison’s birthday this week and the North Yorkshire handler is going for that elusive first-Plate success with Seamour again.

He has an obvious chance but he is another that is proving hard to win with and he is disputing favouritism.

However, stablemate NORTHGATE LAD (14/1 General) is really interesting back at Newcastle and he could be the one to provide Ellison with a late birthday winner in the opening Betfred ‘Celebrating 50 Years Of Success’ Handicap at 1.50.

The five-year-old grey wasn’t at his best at Haydock last time, but nothing got into that race from off the pace and he’s worth forgiving that run especially as it meant the handicapper shaved another couple of pounds off his rating.

Before then he’d be running really well off his 2lb higher mark of 89 at Doncaster, Pontefract and York, that latter form behind Al Qahwa (reopposes off 6lb worse terms) having worked out well following subsequent wins for Flying Pursuit, George Bowen, Udontdodou and Reputation who were all behind Northgate Lad on the Knavesmire.

That suggests Northgate Lad will be competitive off 87 on Saturday, especially at Newcastle where he has a really good record.

He won here off a mark of 90 the only time he ran on the old turf track, while he was a close-up second and third on Tapeta here last summer off marks of 88 and 89 over seven furlongs.

His efforts earlier this season suggest he still has the speed for six and that proven stamina over further could well come into play in this race in the closing stages.

Ben Robinson, who takes 5lb off, has got on well with him in two starts, including one of those seven-furlong races at Newcastle last season, and old stable companion Robero could give him a lovely tow into things on the near side from the adjacent stall as well.

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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +381.99pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). 

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Posted at 1650 BST on 30/06/17.

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