Free Value Bet horse racing tips from Ben Linfoot for Saturday at Lingfield
Ben Linfoot is taking a punt on Lingfield beating the big freeze on Saturday as he puts up two Value Bets for the all-weather action.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet March 3
1pt win Constantino in 1.45 Lingfield at 12/1
1pt win Rufus King in 3.30 Lingfield at 7/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The freezing weather has decimated the jumps fixtures for the foreseeable and The Beast From The East might well see off all of Saturday’s terrestrial TV action yet, with Lingfield’s all-weather card subject to an 8am inspection.
If it does go ahead it’s not a bad card at all, with the Listed 32Red Spring Cup Stakes taking centre stage at 3.30. Headway sets the standard, marginally, on juvenile form and he heads the betting at around 11/8, but that looks plenty short enough.
He was placed in the Coventry Stakes and the Gimcrack, but he is only one from five and isn’t too far ahead of Saturday’s rivals on the bare form. With plenty of guesswork involved following the winter breaks for these horses, he’s worth taking on.
I’m not sure seven furlongs on the all-weather is what Bengali Boys wants seeing as his best effort as a two-year-old came on soft ground in the Super Sprint, while Albishr could be out of his depth in this.
Lansky looks a danger and there were nibbles of support for him at 3/1 on Friday afternoon, but the underestimated ones could be Mark Johnston’s pair Lake Volta and RUFUS KING, with the latter worth a bet at 7/1 (Sky Bet 5pm-6pm, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power).
Lake Volta is worthy of a second look just because he has a run under his belt and that fitness edge could prove vital, but he does have a bit to find here and may well set things up for the others from the front end.
With that in mind it could well be stablemate Rufus King that can capitalise, as his best run came from the front at Newmarket last October - an impressive handicap win on the Rowley Mile on the 10th run of his juvenile campaign.
That was a very smart effort off 97 and the form looks good. The horse in second that he had a sustained battle with, Porth Swtan, dead-heated for second in a big-field novice race back at Newmarket on his next start, while the sixth, Clubbable, won on her next start at Leicester.
He has experience, then, and plenty of it, and he has a good bit of ability, too, after winning handicaps off 94 and 97 on his way to a rating of 103, a number that puts him right in the mix on Saturday.
The Mark Johnston-Joe Fanning team are already firmly in the groove on the all-weather this year and this horse could well find improvement after a break during which he was gelded.
If he can take a lead from his stablemate he could well be best positioned to make his move rounding the home turn, with that experience coming in handy if he’s asked to repel the late swoopers.
The Betway Handicap over five furlongs at 2.55 is a good race but I struggled to get away from the front two in the market, Encore D’Or and Atletico, so for another bet it could be worth concentrating on the opening Play For Free At sunbets.co.uk/vegas Handicap at 1.45.
Humbert heads the market here, but he is stepping back up in class and didn’t look to have that much in hand when he won at Kempton last time.
Chevallier has beaten Towerlands Park, Sea Fox, Poet’s Society and Franco’s Secret this year and he’s a threat if he doesn’t miss the break like last time, but the two that interest me are the pair returning from a good few months off the track.
Mr Minerals has gone well fresh and has won both his starts on the all-weather, but at an even bigger price it could be worth chancing Richard Fahey’s CONSTANTINO at 12/1 (Sky Bet 5pm-6pm, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power).
This five-year-old son of Danehill Dancer goes really well after a break, as he’s finished 221 following his last three absences of more than 50 days.
The victory in that sequence came on his seasonal reappearance at Newcastle last June, where he won on the Tapeta by a length-and-a-half off a handicap mark of 90.
He didn’t fire on turf in a couple of runs after that, but he put in a respectable effort at Chelmsford last September where he wasn’t beaten far at all in a good race won by Masham Star, where he was a two-length fifth off 94.
Dropped to 91 following one poor run in heavy ground at Haydock, he starts the year off a competitive rating and could well pop up following a break at a track where has run well twice before fresh (those two seconds in the earlier sequence).
He’ll have to be produced late by Paul Hanagan, as he’s not a horse that does a lot in front, but that’s the way to get things done at Lingfield and, remarkably, his jockey has ridden him only once before – in victory at Ayr on his second start as a juvenile.
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Posted at 1700 GMT on 02/03/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +353.89pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Click here for the full Value Bet record
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