Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Ascot and York tips on King George day

Recommended Bets: Value Bet

1pt win Fire Brigade in 2.25 Ascot at 20/1 - Can resume upward curve now he faces an ideal test on likely favourable conditions

1pt e.w Havre De Paix in 3.00 Ascot at 33/1 - Looks really well handicapped on a few bits of form, ran well here latest and any rain will suit

1pt win Muntadab in 2.40 York at 12/1 - Roger Fell's yard are in really good nick and this horse is back down to the same mark he ran off when a neck second at York's Dante meeting 

1pt win Rasheeq in 2.40 York at 22/1 - Also has very good course form and is now a couple of pounds lower than May second at this track

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Enable versus the colts and geldings in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on Saturday looks likely to be one of the highlights of the season and the skinny odds about John Gosden’s filly are perfectly understandable.

The daughter of Nathaniel has looked out of the top drawer when romping to Classic victories at Epsom and the Curragh this summer and the very fact she has been rerouted here from a less ambitious tilt at the Yorkshire Oaks speaks volumes.

Frankie Dettori will be sweating down to one of his lowest riding weights and the fasting on Friday could well be worth it as it’s going to be tough for her opponents to give her a stone and a beating come Saturday afternoon.

Highland Reel is the one she has to beat, but the recent rainfall, with the threat of more to come, is against Aidan O’Brien’s charge and fully explains his drift in the market. On fast ground they would be much closer together in the betting, but conditions look like being very much against him.

With that in mind the one that could give Enable most to do is stablemate Jack Hobbs, as a mile-and-a-half on ground with a bit of cut in it are probably his optimum conditions. His very best form is excellent and, if he hits the heights he did at Meydan back in March, I wouldn’t like to call which of Gosden’s will come home in front.

It should be a cracker, and so is the undercard headed by the mind-bending puzzle that is the Gigaset International Stakes at 3.00. We’ll work on the assumption the ground will be on the soft side of good, although it could be softer depending on how much rain hits the track during Friday night.

There isn’t a lot of obvious early pace running here and it could be a bit messy if they split into two or three groups, so a prominent position could be valuable again as it was for Zhui Feng in the Royal Hunt Cup at the track last month.

With tactics and the weather at the forefront of my thoughts, I’m drawn to the chances of David Menuisier’s HAVRE DE PAIX at 33/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5, Coral, Stan James 1/4 1,2,3,4) and at those odds the five-year-old mare is worth an each-way bet.

The daughter of Le Havre has some really good Listed form to her name, in the context of this race, and her two poor runs earlier this season are happily ignored since it has emerged the stable were battling a virus until recently.

Indeed, Menuisier had no winners from 17 runners from March to May, and no runners at all in June, but his stable have been firing on all cylinders this month with three winners and a further five places from 17 starts.

One of those places was a second for Havre De Paix at this track, when she was second to Friday’s Listed fifth Mittens when attempting to make all giving her 12lb in a fillies’ handicap.

A little keen early on, the drop in trip to seven furlongs looks a positive move on that evidence - especially with the extra cut in the ground likely to be a big positive for her.

That’s not the only piece of form that suggests a mark of 90 underestimates her ability. At Chantilly, last October, she ran a really nice race in the Listed Prix Casimir Delamarre when finishing fourth, over 1m1f, beaten a length.

She led that day as well and went three lengths clear inside the final two furlongs, before being caught in the closing stages. It looks good form, too, as Rostova, the winner, is now rated 99, while Golden Stunner, just behind Havre De Paix in fifth, is now rated 107.

That mark of 90 could be workable, then, especially as she was dropped 5lb when the stable was under a cloud. 

The jockey booking of Martin Dwyer is an interesting one, too. He hasn’t ridden her since her debut, but he gets back aboard here with the possible scenario of dictating a big field from the front end, just as he did on the aforementioned Zhui Feng at the Royal meeting.

Earlier on the card Michael Bell’s FIRE BRIGADE can rescue punters in the Porsche Handicap at a surprisingly big 20/1 (General).

He was beaten at Yarmouth last time, but that small field and steady gallop didn’t play to his strengths and he’s very much of interest now he runs in a bigger line-up where the possibility of them going a decent clip looks likely.

Pealer, Masham Star, Naval Warfare, Mustarrid and Alwahsh have all led or raced prominently in recent outings and they could well set things up for a closer in this.

Fire Brigade ticks that box and he’ll love the cut in the ground as well judging by his two victories at Newmarket and at Haydock this campaign.

Those wins highlight how progressive he is and, just 4lb higher than he was for that Haydock success last month, he could well resume his upward curve now he’s faced with an ideal scenario.

Finally, it’s the Sky Bet Dash up at York and I’m siding with a couple of horses that have good form on the Knavesmire to their name already this season.

MUNTADAB is the first of those at 12/1 (General). 

He has been backed on Friday afternoon but his price remains fair given he’s back down to a mark of 97, a rating he was second off at York in the Infinity Tyres Handicap (usually a good pointer for this race) at the Dante meeting.

That was on soft ground, so he wouldn’t mind any rain, but he’s perfectly at home on good ground and things didn’t pan out for him at Hamilton last time when he was drawn away from the action.

On both occasions he’s been to York he’s been a really close second and the course clearly suits his style of racing. He’ll be prominent, he travels sweetly and he has the speed to get plenty of these off the bridle before he’s asked for his effort.

With the Roger Fell yard in really good nick he’s worth getting on side.

RASHEEQ’s York record also catches the eye and he’s another worth backing at 22/1 (William Hill, 20s generally) for Tim Easterby who has also been amongst the winners in recent weeks.

Fourth in a nursery here as a two-year-old, he’s been second at this track twice from two goes this season including off a 2lb higher mark at the end of May when he was runner-up to stablemate Copper Knight.

He ran on really well that day, shaping as though six furlongs would be well within his limits, and he’s probably been aimed at this race ever since.

The Vale Of York gelding has never really cut it anywhere else and nothing went right for him at Pontefract last week where he was keen and hampered and eased off when his chance had gone up the hill.

It wasn’t an ideal preparation, but the hope is it will have at least put him spot on for this fitness-wise and if he can recapture the form he showed at the track earlier in the campaign it could well be his day.

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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +387.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). 

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Posted at 1700 BST on 28/07/17.