Saturday racing tips: Value Bet preview ahead of Investec Derby at Epsom

Recommended bets, Saturday July 4

1pt win Barossa Red in 2.40 Haydock at 13/2

1pt win Plantadream in 3.00 Epsom at 20/1

1pt e.w. Max Vega in 4.55 Epsom at 33/1

1pt win Comin’ Through in 5.35 Epsom at 14/1

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The top three in the market all look there to be shot at in Saturday’s Investec Derby and, at relatively wild prices, it’s worth backing MAX VEGA (33/1, General 1/5 1,2,3,4) to make his mark on the rearranged Epsom Classic.

With an official rating of 110, Ralph Beckett’s first ever runner in the race is currently only a fraction (2lb) behind long-time market leader English King and if you strike a line through his comeback effort – there are reasons to do so, which we will get to – he looks the most over-priced horse with a chance of hitting the frame.

Winding back to last season, the son of Lope De Vega, whose progeny have proved to be fully effective at a mile and a half among a range of distances, had the re-opposing Khalifa Sat back in the pack when beaten a neck by Kenzai Warrior on his Salisbury debut, after which he tucked away a penalty kick at Pontefract when long odds-on.

Stepped up to Group Three level in Newmarket’s Zetland Stakes on his final juvenile outing, the chestnut raced keenly but ultimately powered home to win by three lengths from this year’s Lingfield Oaks Trial winner Miss Yoda, showing he was improving steeply.

A further quarter of a length behind in third came Berkshire Rocco, who looks a very reasonable yardstick having come out this term with solid seconds to English King at Lingfield (two and three-quarter lengths) and subsequent Irish Derby winner Santiago in the Queen’s Vase.

So you can see why Max Vega isn’t too far off English King, whose price became cramped at best following the booking of Frankie Dettori, in terms of the official figures, but the reason we’re getting 33/1 is obviously due to what looked a pretty lacklustre reappearance run at Kempton.

He was easy to back from the widest stall and looked outpaced when the tempo increased, despite making quite a promising forward move just past halfway, but the key thing to stress is that Beckett left nobody in any doubt it was a “prep run ahead of the Derby” on the very first weekend of racing after resumption.

This, of all years, is surely one in which it may pay to forgive a low-key first run of the season, especially now Beckett’s horses have picked up a bit (Friday's Haydock winner his fourth in the past fortnight) after a slow start.

The trainer has also made it clear he feels Epsom will really suit the diminutive, well-balanced Max Vega, who didn’t look at home on the Polytrack at Kempton on reflection.

Going back left-handed is expected to play to his strengths, as is the step up in trip given the fact stamina effectively won the day in the 10-furlong Zetland, which was run on bad ground towards the end of the season.

The Zetland has seemingly become a stronger race in recent years, with Kew Gardens beating subsequent Derby second Dee Ex Bee in the 2017 edition, and Wings Of Eagles finishing fourth to Coronet en route to his surprise Epsom heroics the following June.

We’re not going to have particularly testing ground come Saturday but it’s a mixed forecast and any further easing of the going on raceday morning would clearly enhance Max Vega’s credentials, rather than damage them.

With major doubts around Kameko’s stamina, Mogul needing a giant leap of improvement and the rapidly-progressive Highland Chief having now probably found his correct spot in the market, a chance is taken on Beckett - who has done so well in the Oaks over the years including two wins and a famous one-two in 2013 - enjoying a dream Derby debut.

The Investec Oaks could hardly be less appealing from a punting perspective, unfortunately, especially given the strong antepost position on the top two in the market.

Love really blossomed from the budding top-notcher we saw last season when storming clear in the 1000 Guineas and she looks a pretty cool customer which will give her every chance of staying the new trip.

Frankly Darling, on the other hand, is far more head-strong and will need a sprinkling of magic from the saddle as she looks to make it three from three for the year and confirm the big impression she made in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Ascot.

The 10-furlong Investec Handicap was covered in Monday’s column where Caradoc was identified as being over-priced at 14s after being taken out at Windsor on the same day on account of the lively ground.

He’s shortened up through the week with Oisin Murphy jocked up but, in such a competitive field, I’m happy to go double-handed by adding PLANTADREAM into the mix as well.

Still totally unexposed as a five-year-old with only five races to his credit, he looked a bit special – and certainly miles ahead of the handicapper – when bolting up at Lingfield just under a month ago.

Lingfield form translates well to Epsom, as we’ve seen in some of the more high-profile races as well as handicaps in recent years, and we can put his mid-pack Royal Ascot finish down to inexperience.

The Silver Royal Hunt Cup on Ascot’s straight course was a world away from the all-weather circuits on which he’d been developing his skills over the winter and a switch back to a sharp, undulating, left-handed track might see him get back on an upward curve.

The handicapper has left him alone on 95, a full stone higher than at Lingfield, but I’m inclined to agree the gelding has still got scope to prove he’s up to the mark, and at 20/1 he looks underestimated.

One Lingfield-Epsom specialist we know all about is Corazon Espinado, who must have a fair shot of doubling up after winning last year’s Investec Zebra Handicap.

However, he’s worse off at the weights with Alemaratalyoum and Hateya, who were both hot on his heels last June, and preference is to side with the well-treated COMIN’ THROUGH (14/1).

If Corazon Espinado bursts out of trap 12 and attempts to make all again, Harry Bentley should be able to pick up a good early position without using up too much petrol from stall five on Comin’ Through.

He’s in against a lot of proper speed horses here – the likes of Reputation, Count Otto and Magical Wish – but I like the fact he’s won over further, including an Australian ‘Group One’ at 10 furlongs, as he’s going to be rattling home when others are wilting.

The six-year-old was rated 110 when George Scott first got him and recent evidence suggests he’s slipped to a good mark (90), shaping well when sixth in a hot Newcastle handicap which has thrown up Sir Busker, Dark Vision and Fifth Position, and again when beaten a length by Deep Intrigue at Newmarket when the old tongue-tie/blinkers combination was restored last time out.

He’s evidently finding his range after a winter breathing operating and is too tempting to ignore at the price.

Bet of the day at Haydock – and the only one I’ve landed on despite coming close to putting up Luigi Vampa in the last, too – is BAROSSA RED (13/2, Hills).

The My Alerts At bet365 Handicap will be the horse’s third appearance at the north west track, having won and been second over the same course and distance last season.

Those races, run on August 10 and September 7, were of a lower quality, admittedly, but have produced 12 subsequent winners between them and Andrew Balding’s runner did look unfortunate on the second occasion as he was keen, sauntered to the front, probably arrived there a fraction too soon, and got mugged as Time For A Toot flew by late on.

A Chelmsford pipe-opened last month, when sent off favourite off the same mark from which he runs on Saturday, should have sorted him out fitness-wise and the 10-furlong experiment there is swiftly abandoned.

He’s back over his best trip, on ground and a course he loves, and now has the benefit of useful 5lb claimer William Carver.

Posted at 1630 BST on 03/07/20

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