Newbury & Newmarket ITV Racing tips: Preview and best value bets for Saturday May 15
Racing betting tips: Saturday May 15
1pt win Thunderous in 2.25 Newbury at 15/2 (bet365)
1pt win King Frankel in 3.00 Newbury at 10/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Fantasy Master in 3.15 Newmarket at 22/1 (BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Century Dream in 3.35 Newbury at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
It’s not been a ‘merry month of May’ for John and Thady Gosden, whose blistering start to the season has hit the rocks somewhat in recent weeks.
A respective 43% and 24% strike-rate for March and April has dipped below 10% in the past fortnight and that’s not the only reason to be slightly wary of rowing in with Palace Pier at a skinny price ahead of Saturday’s Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes at Newbury.
He obviously has the strongest form in the book, most notably Group One scores over Pinatubo and Alpine Star at Ascot and Deauville last summer, while he laid the Champions Day ghost to rest - to some degree - with an eight-length comeback success at Sandown last month.
Beating Bless Him eight lengths off level weights was everything you’d want to see from the son of Kingman, but Gosden (senior) once again mentioned post-race the likelihood of a step up in trip sooner rather than later for Palace Pier, while there’s a pretty strong sense that he’s a better horse when able to kick clear having come around a bend.
He does have a big-race, straight mile success on the CV having just got there in time in the Jacques le Marois, but the QEII went pretty wrong over Ascot’s straight eight furlongs, and I’d be slightly surprised if we saw the very best of him on his Newbury debut this weekend.
Looking even further ahead, he may end up contesting the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and/or the Coral-Eclipse back at Sandown, over the Queen Anne Stakes for which he’s only 7/4, but a lot clearly depends on this next assignment.
The Lockinge has often been won and lost due to a small tactical edge and while it's fair to suggest nobody is better in that regard than Frankie Dettori, it's not impossible to envisage Palace Pier’s turbo registering just a fraction too late if he finds himself buried among the pack early on.
It’s not as though there aren't realistic alternatives in opposition here and I’m really tempted by an each-way play in the race.
Lope Y Fernandez is a converted sprinter and also likes winging his way around a bend on decent ground, while My Oberon and Top Rank have resumed in good heart this spring but haven’t exactly been missed in the market as a result.
Preference is to take a chance on the returning CENTURY DREAM, who represents another father and son training combination in Simon and Ed Crisford, who are ticking over quite nicely so far this term.
Century Dream is getting on a bit and isn’t open to significant improvement like some of these but Mustashry struck for the older brigade in the last renewal of the race (2019) and the likes of Paco Boy and Farhh have also seen off the young guns in the past decade, so the selection being a hardened seven-year-old isn’t overly concerning.
He has a good record when fresh, has won well on his last two visits to Newbury and has some strong, straight mile, Group One form to his name having been a close fourth in the 2018 Queen Anne and third – beaten under a length – to Roaring Lion in the same year’s QEII.
He struck at Group Three and Group Two level last season to show the fire still burns bright when on song and will love every drop of rain due to fall in the region on Saturday morning.
Century Dream also seems to get on very well with jockey James Doyle, but the biggest factor at play is that he’s only really got outsider Lord Campari as the other obvious pace angle, meaning he shouldn’t have to use up too much petrol in the first half of the race.
He might be able to get his own way out in front for much of the journey, which wasn’t the case when well beaten off on Champion Day, and if there’s enough juice in the ground I fancy he could hang in there a lot longer than the market suggests.
Take on big two in middle-distance clash
Al Aasy and the Gosden-trained Logician take up a good chunk of the market in the Al Rayyan Stakes and I can’t resist THUNDEROUS at his current price.
Mark Johnston’s colt has never been a flashy work horse at home, by all accounts, and looks to have taken his time to really come to hand this season having been off the track due to injury following a narrow win in the rescheduled Dante Stakes at York last summer.
It’s good to see he’s clearly standing his racing well at present though and, following a limp comeback over 10 furlongs at Sandown, he did show a lot more promise when third to front-running stablemate Sir Ron Priestley in the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket a fortnight ago.
He was staying on steadily without being knocked about by Ryan Moore at HQ and I suspect connections took considerable encouragement from that first crack at Saturday’s mile and a half trip. Moore keeps the ride and the horse should really enjoy a return to Newbury where he won the Washington Singer on soft ground as a two-year-old.
Al Aasy looked very good on his return to action but hasn’t always backed up one good run with another and he’s got the 3lb penalty to carry here despite the recent course form looking flaky, with all six of the subsequent runners from the John Porter well beaten at Listed or Group Three level since.
What are the best bets in the handicaps on Saturday?
Johnston could be in luck in the BetVictor London Gold Cup too as the beautifully-bred KING FRANKEL, who has done his racing at Wolverhampton, Goodwood and Pontefract to date, looks the type who could take his form to a completely new level now faced with a big, galloping, flat circuit like Newbury.
Not that he doesn’t look well enough handicapped from an opening mark of 82 anyway, the full-brother to Eminent having split Act Of Wisdom and Juan De Montalban at Goodwood last September.
That pair are now rated 92 and 91 given what they’ve done subsequently and it’s worth noting that that Future Stayers’ EBF Maiden has been a race to follow closely in recent years, having been won by Derby second Khalifa Sat in 2019, future Group Three winner Pablo Escobarr in 2018, and Charlie Appleby’s very useful and sadly ill-fated Setting Sail (rated 106) the year before that.
King Frankel wasn’t quite at the same level when beaten by Juan De Montalban on his final run as a juvenile but got back on track behind the classy Trawlerman on seasonal debut at Pontefract before winning his maiden at the same venue last time.
His task was vastly simplified by market rival King Of Tomorrow going lame mid-race there but he registered a bloodless, 32-length victory in the end and was only nudged up 2lb.
No doubt he’ll get a good early slot under Joe Fanning from stall four here and, if getting his huge stride rolling at the top of the straight, could take a bit of passing under a low weight on softening ground.
The only race that really interests me from a punting perspective at Newmarket is the Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap.
I was with Jumby on his reappearance here last month and he ran a most eyecatching race in third behind Creative Force, who has gone in again since off 8lb higher, so Eve Johnson Houghton’s colt looks potentially well in having been left alone by the assessor.
He could be quite a warm order on Saturday but isn’t the only horse in the field with potential and I’m convinced FANTASY MASTER is well ahead of his mark too.
The son of Sepoy was a real work in progress last season and evidently took everyone by surprise when winning a Nottingham maiden over five furlongs at 80/1 in September. He proved that no fluke when doubling up in a nursery over the same course and distance but that presumably prompted trainer Mick Appleby to stick with the minimum trip and he found things happening all too quickly when bidding for the Colwick Park hat-trick in late-October.
He was eased a pound ahead of his return to action – again over five furlongs – at Sandown last month and ran a belter in the circumstances, the six and a half-length beaten margin clearly exaggerated by Hollie Doyle unfortunately dropping the whip before she was able to use it at all.
The winner Nelson Gay let the form down on the face of it, but they were almost forced into running him a week later under a penalty before a 13lb rise kicked in so I can forgive him the odds-on reverse at Goodwood and thoroughly expect Fantasy Master to improve for his run in second.
He was a bit of a boy when racing over six furlongs on his first two starts last year but is bred to stay further and, now he’s more experienced and far more settled, six furlongs looks a very sensible move at this stage.
He sneaks in here at the bottom and although much of the pace is drawn low-to-middle and he’s out in 13, I can’t let the draw put me off a horse seemingly with so much else in his favour.
Published at 1600 BST on 14/05/21
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