Free Cheltenham racing tips: Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet preview and recommended bets for day one of the November Meeting
It's day one of the November Meeting at Cheltenham and Matt Brocklebank has one big-priced selection as he looks to follow on from profits gained at the Showcase.
Recommended bets, Friday November 13
1pt e.w. Rakhine State in 1.15 Cheltenham at 20/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Possibly not the most appealing betting card to open up the November Meeting at Cheltenham but few complaints in terms of underfoot conditions for a fixture hit hard by the weather in recent seasons.
Good to soft, good in places is the official line and with the chance of one or two early-morning showers on raceday there shouldn't be too many excuses on that front.
Easysland versus Tiger Roll in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase arguably takes top billing and it looks a real statement of intent that the French horse travels over to tackle this course again having basically slammed Gordon Elliott’s Festival legend in March.
That came off level weights and this event favours Easysland further still so with Potters Corner – having his first go at this kind of test, in competition at least – the only other one allowed to race off their proper marks, then it does boil down to a bit of a penalty-kick for the market leader.
Pipe's Eamon An Cnoic, who unseated in the big Saturday feature when carrying our cash in this column last November, came closest to making the staking plan in the Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase, but he's surely going to need some fairly heavy rain, or a seriously strong gallop to chase, if he's going to successfully drop back to two miles as a nine-year-old this term.
Perhaps the summer breathing operation, in addition to the usual tongue-tie and blinkers, has sparked a resurgence and if so he's realistically treated again competing from a mark of 135.
All four can be given some sort of chance in the SSS Super Alloys Supports Racing Welfare Novices’ Chase, but that’s not to say Fergal O’Brien’s Paint The Dream – the outsider of the party – is worthy of support.
The hope was that Mossy Fen may be a fraction bigger than his initial price as he just looked a bit rusty on his chasing debut here last month and it’s not hard to envisage a significant uplift in terms of the bare form he’s able to produce on this occasion.
At 4/1 (and shortening) he’s passed over, while stablemate Polish and the others look to have their work cut out muscling the top two in the betting, namely Does He Know and Grand Mogul, out of the action in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle later on the card.
There is a rather more appealing bet, however, in the opening Markel Insurance Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle, which often throws up a bit of a plot horse, or one who proves to be miles ahead of the assessor, as was the case in 2015 when Unowhatimeanharry effectively started out on his remarkable journey at this wonderful racecourse.
His trainer Harry Fry won the next two editions as well, while David Pipe was striking for the third time in the past decade when Duc De Beauchene landed a pretty hefty gamble under Jonjo O’Neill Jr 12 months ago.
Fry is nowhere to be seen this time around but Pipe runs Induno in the silks of Ronnie Bartlett and early indications are that he’s going to be hot property at the top of the market.
Sent off 3/1, 11/8, 11/8 and 8/13 for his four public appearances to date, the horse obviously has plenty about him and may prove to be another blot on the handicap having been allotted an introductory mark of 115 after a disappointing run at Sedgefield on Boxing Day last year.
He’s clearly not alone in the ‘could be thrown in’ column as he resumes his racing career, with Emma Lavelle’s Silent Assistant seemingly creeping towards a big performance when last in action around the turn of the year, and the Nicky Henderson-trained Steal A March another scoring highly when looking for a horse who might be able to go through the ranks from a lowly perch.
But for really solid form chances, I much prefer the claims of Lungarno Palace and RAKHINE STATE (20/1 Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5, 6), with the latter getting the nod at the prices.
He seemed to take forever to break his maiden for Gordon Elliott but is still relatively unexposed in the grand scheme of things after 17 career starts and the pick of his efforts – mainly coming on decent ground – give him a massive chance off a mark of 121.
He won at Perth last April where he beat Curramore, who landed a Carlisle maiden hurdle on his very next start. The third, Fanzio, has won four times across the two codes since and now commands a chase mark of 132.
Local trainer David Jeffreys picked Rakhine State up out of a Stratford seller when he provided Richard Johnson with a birthday winner last summer, quite readily giving 4lb and a five-length beating to Doubly Clever.
The runner-up has since switched yards, too, and gone on to win four times in handicap hurdles, rising to a mark of 142 in the process.
This horse hasn’t improved to that extent – not yet at least – but he’s only had four goes for his new yard and fell on one of those occasions so can’t be judged too harshly. He had nearly a year off following that Worcester spill but came back with a good second to Tel’Art at Stratford in August, before an even more promising third over two and a half miles at Sedgefield 26 days ago.
He just looked in need of the run there following another short break but has clearly retained all of his ability and kicking on with him now before the ground turns again seems a perfectly sensible approach.
Jeffreys only has a dozen or so horses in his Stow-On-The-Wold yard but struck with his very first Cheltenham runner when Zara Hope won last December (course record now reads 1-3), while he’s been among the winners already this month as well – Sunday’s Stratford scorer Dubai Outlaw was the trainer’s most recent runner.
He’s also got an in-form jockey for the job. Max Kendrick is 0-14 at Cheltenham overall, with just the one second and one third to his name, but he’s 3-8 in the last 10 days and in Rakhine State has a mount certainly entitled to be in the shake-up if things go his way on Friday.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 12/11/20
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