Weekend racing tips for Newbury, Doncaster & Kelso: Value Bet Saturday March 6
Racing betting tips: Saturday, March 6
1pt e.w. Gala Ball in 1.50 Newbury at 25/1 (bet365, Hills 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Zoffee in 2.55 Doncaster at 5/1 (bet365, Hills)
1pt e.w. Scardura in 3.15 Kelso at 33/1 (Hills 33/1 1/5 1,2,3,4)
Paul Nicholls has won the BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase nine times and will be looking to boost his lead over Dan Skelton at the top of the trainers’ championship further still with Capeland and Grand Sancy representing Ditcheat in the Newbury feature this weekend.
The latter has been laid out for the prize since disappointing in the Rising Stars at Wincanton and he’s got to be of interest pitched into handicap company now his elongated novice status (extended due to COVID-influenced rule change) has essentially expired.
He’s going to go off among the market leaders but I wouldn’t be completely dismissive of stablemate Capeland either. He wasn’t alone in being blown away by Dashel Drasher in the Ascot mud last time but his form with First Flow earlier in the season reads well and he won pretty stylishly from just 4lb lower than his current mark under Daryl Jacob at Wincanton on his penultimate start.
Jacob is back on board and could have a great spin on the nine-year-old with the return to better ground a slight plus if anything (he goes on all conditions). The slight issue I have with him is that all his chase wins have come going the other way round, and his form left-handed looks decidedly suspect.
Umbrigado and Killer Clown are improving novices with relatively sexy profiles and they could each rate a fair bit higher still as seven-year-olds just getting to grips with the chasing game.
Senior Citizen – 13lb better off – is clearly weighted to reverse last year’s Doncaster form with The Big Bite and he’s another who has been pretty well found in the betting throughout the week, so I’d rather cast the net further and back GALA BALL at a big price.
He’s the veteran of the party at 11 years of age but he absolutely loves Newbury – his form here over hurdles and fences reading 12222102 – and there was a valid excuse for the one blowout as he lost a shoe.
Two of the runner-up efforts have been in this very race as he was second to Warriors Tale in 2017 and then followed San Benedeto home in 2019 on his first start after a long layoff.
He got back to winning ways last season when beating Le Rocher at Wincanton and he’s 2lb lower in the weights now despite a cracking effort first time out this term when second to the seriously progressive Clondaw Castle (again over this course and distance).
On that evidence there are still nice races to be won with Gala Ball and I’m willing to excuse two poor efforts since, firstly when struggling behind Capeland at Wincanton and also when pulled-up on bad ground at Warwick.
Trainer Philip Hobbs is on record in the past saying his runner must have it soft after the problems he’s had, but the good ground effort behind Clondaw Castle proves that isn’t necessarily the case anymore and, as well as a spot of midweek rain that's likely to have taken any sting out of the going, I also like the fact he’s been declared in blinkers to help spark him back to life.
He’s worn cheekpieces so far this season but the 2017 second in this event came in first-time blinkers so it’s interesting to see a return of the latter for the first time since. Incidentally, 2013 Greatwood Gold Cup winner Pacha Du Polder had pulled-up on his previous start, and also lined up with a change of headgear.
With the Hobbs string finally looking in really good shape again (three winners on Thursday), it’s worth taking a chance on the return to Newbury proving a catalyst for this horse.
Stick with Hobbs horse at Doncaster
Gala Ball’s trainer and jockey Tom O’Brien could also be in business in Newbury's BetVictor Veterans’ Handicap Chase with the well-handicapped Strong Pursuit, but top-weight Present Man is going to be very hard to beat here after a 108-day layoff and he’s not easy to oppose.
Perhaps it’s significant Richard Johnson heads to Doncaster to ride the Hobbs-trained ZOFFEE and I reckon he’s well worth a bet at 5/1 or bigger in the Virgin Bet Handicap Chase.
His best performance over hurdles – an 11-length demolition job in a maiden - came on good ground at Town Moor last February and he’s taken to fences quite well in the face of some stiff tasks against older rivals this time around, including Getaway Trump who reopposes on similar terms having beaten Zoffee a length at Warwick at the start of the season.
Having just turned five, time is very much on Zoffee's side and it’s not hard to see him learning a huge amount from his chasing handicap debut run when a fraction disappointing behind Elusive Belle at Newbury when last seen.
He’s been kept away from the worst of the winter ground since that effort at the end of November and I’d be disappointed if he can’t resume his upward trajectory having been eased 2lb in the ratings.
ITV Racing schedule
- Kelso: 1.30, 2.05, 2.40 & 3.15
- Doncaster: 2.20, 2.55 & 3.30
- Newbury: 1.15 & 1.50
Mulholland runner underestimated in Kelso feature
I’d have been dead interested in War Lord in the bet365 Handicap Hurdle at Kelso had the Colin Tizzard yard come to hand in time as I feel he’s crying out for this step up in trip, but with no sign of an obvious resurgence I’ll focus on the bet365 Morebattle Hurdle north of the border.
There’s a £100,000 bonus available for anything able to win this and a race at the Cheltenham Festival and the obvious candidate is Greatwood winner The Shunter, who is only 7lb higher despite ultimately winning that with something to spare.
He’s since been third in a valuable handicap chase at Leopardstown and he’s obviously got loads of options at the Festival but I’d be amazed if he isn’t seen over an intermediate trip there as he looks to stay really well.
If it remains dry at Kelso then there might not be quite enough of a test on for him and the same goes for Solo, who I fancied at Kempton and isn't one to give up having probably run a fair bit better than the finishing position suggests in the Lanzarote.
I can just about let him go unbacked, though, especially with SCARDURA on offer at a huge price. He’s sneaking into this under the radar having not run over hurdles since last March, but he’s improved loads since then and was sent off 9/2 to beat Rouge Vif at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting having won well off a mark of 127 at Newton Abbot in September.
He unseated at Cheltenham and the wheels have come off a bit as far as his fencing is concerned, but he’s been freshened up for the spring and looks just the type to show his true colours again off a very fair mark of 131 providing the weather plays ball.
He’s another one entered up for the County Hurdle at Cheltenham so the bonus may also be at the back of the minds of his connections and his trainer Neil Mulholland – who had two winners at Wincanton earlier in the week - has always been a great placer of his horses.
He and Sam Twiston-Davies (18% strike-rate, level stakes profit of +49.21) also team up with the promising Any News for the same owners in the Grade Two bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle, but it’s Scardura who interests me most at the odds.
Published at 1600 GMT on 05/03/21
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