Free racing tips: Value Bet preview and recommended bets for day one of July Festival at Newmarket
The three-day July Festival kicks off on Thursday and Matt Brocklebank has a couple of bets for Newmarket, including a 28/1 chance.
Recommended bets, Thursday July 9
1pt win Yazaman in 3.00 Newmarket at 13/2
1pt win Progressive Rating in 3.35 Newmarket at 28/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
There will be an undeniable feeling of comfort watching the action unfold on ITV4 as racing returns to York and Newmarket's July Course on Thursday, but the three principal races on the Knavesmire aren’t inspiring betting heats, unfortunately.
Highest Ground is getting shorter and shorter and it could be argued he’s something of a false price now, but there’s no genuine urge to take on Sir Michael Stoute’s leading three-year-old.
This week’s rain will have taken any sting out of the ground, which will probably help if anything, and the son of Frankel already looks a potential top-notch performer with next year in mind.
The Marygate appears a bit of a minefield and the Musidora has been shorn of its star attraction in Franconia, so it is to Newmarket where a couple of horses look worth backing.
There was a 25/1 turn-up in last year’s bet365 Handicap (the 3yo sprint at 3.35 – there are a few race title clashes here this week) as Pass The Vino won on his first turf outing of the year and PROGRESSIVE RATING (28/1, BetVictor, Coral) looks a great bet to produce something similar.
Trainer William Knight has made a really positive start to life at Rathmoy Stables, the Newmarket premises vacated by David Lanigan at the start of the year, including Royal Ascot success courtesy of Sir Busker.
Sir Busker was having his second start of the season at the big meeting but had also won a nice prize at Newcastle on his first outing since October, and he’s not the only stable representative to have hit the ground running since resumption.
Knight – who enjoyed seven winners from 32 runners (22%) through June - has also sent out Shifting Gold and Gold Arch to win first time up after the enforced layoff, so Progressive Rating’s lack of a pipe-opener shouldn’t be considered too much of a negative.
When last seen the son of Bated Breath was on a real upward curve, winning a novice event at Kempton, then following up under a penalty at Wolverhampton.
He was visually less impressive on the latter occasion but ultimately looked good value for the neck victory over Odyssey Girl, who won next time up at Lingfield and now has an all-weather rating of 84.
The Britannia was mooted as a possible target by connections but I like the fact he sticks to sprinting for now as he looks to have loads of natural speed, something which is entitled to have developed further from two to three over the winter. I also love the strong possibility of him staying a bit further at some point as he’s likely to be up with the pace here and will need to really see it out on the stiff climb to the line.
The dam, a six-furlong winner herself, is a half-sister to Haajes who absolutely thrived in the hustle and bustle of a big-field, turf handicap and while Progressive Rating clearly has to prove himself in that regard, he’s a sizeable colt who looks more than capable of handling himself amongst a crowd.
They split into two groups last year, with the far side just edging the runner-up who raced nearer the stands, but stall 12 should afford Callum Shepherd the luxury of roughly going where he wants on the course.
He may have to bide his time slightly with well-fancied pair Meraas and Dancin Inthestreet (made the running last season, 2lb well-in here) other possible pace-setters, but he should be staying on as well as anything and there’s just too much to like to let him go unbacked from a generous-looking mark of 87.
The other one I want on side at Newmarket is the William Haggas-trained YAZAMAN in the Group Two Tattersalls July Stakes, where by my reckoning he should be a fair bit closer to Tactical in the betting.
The Queen’s horse is proving extremely popular again having come out on top when well backed in the Windsor Castle Stakes, but the runner-up endured a luckless passage compared to the winner at Ascot.
Tactical had a dream run along the stands’ side rail, while Yazaman was squeezed up initially before having to weave around rivals more towards the middle of the course heading to the furlong marker.
Perhaps those minor disruptions looked a shade more costly than they were in reality, and could largely have been down to his own inadequacies (blinkered and was slow to hit top gear when winning on debut too), but connections are clearly happy to reoppose over six furlongs.
The son of Kodiac looks to be begging for the extra furlong based on what we’ve seen of him so far and, granted a bit more improvement, could be able to trouble Coventry Stakes second and market leader Qaader.
Three of the last four July Stakes winners have contested the Coventry on their previous start (the other came from the Norfolk) which bodes well for Mark Johnston’s colt, but we’ve also seen four maiden winners improve sharply to win here in the past decade, while the Windsor Castle form worked out to provide the winners in 2011 and 2012, so there’s a fair spread if you dig a little deeper.
Yazaman looks up to winning in Group company and could arguably be the one coming here unbeaten.
Posted at 1530 BST on 08/07/20
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