Ben Linfoot had 12/1, 16/1 and 18/1 winners at Royal Ascot - don't miss his preview for Newcastle's Friday evening card as the ITV4 cameras roll into town.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet, Newcastle, June 29
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The ITV4 cameras roll into toon for the middle day of Newcastle’s Northumberland Plate meeting on Friday night and with the World Cup taking its first break all eyes (well, mine and yours anyway) will be on Gosforth Park.
The feature race is named after the track as 14 horses do battle over five furlongs for the Stobart Energy Gosforth Park Cup Handicap with Eastern Impact and Atletico disputing favouritism.
Eastern Impact is on a long losing run and, though he was second at Newmarket last time, this surface is far from certain to suit (Bahamian Bounty progeny are 3/78 at the track), while Atletico looks vulnerable to an improver off his career-high mark of 103.
The pace looks like being an honest one from the outset with Copper Knight, Soie D’Leau, Eastern Impact and Evergate helping to set the tempo and with that in mind I’m drawn to the horses that are likely to be running on late.
Of those it’s Mick Appleby’s BARRINGTON that makes most appeal and at 11/1 (Bet Victor, Coral, 10/1 General) he’s worth backing on the back of his Nottingham win last time.
Rated 99 at his best for Charlie Hills, he’d dropped to 91 by the time he arrived at Appleby’s but he was backed into 4/1 favouritism on his second start at Thirsk in May before weakening out of contention.
However, he put that performance way behind him when winning at Nottingham on June 14, travelling well on the firm ground and having enough in the tank to see off the late challenge of the in-form Muscika, the pair over two lengths clear of the rest.
On that evidence he’s well worth dropping back to five furlongs, as he looks to have plenty of pace and his stamina for six should help him in the latter stages if they go hard up front.
A 4lb rise certainly looks lenient enough considering the form of the runner-up and the promise of more to come after just three starts for his new trainer.
Barrington has never run on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface, but his sire, Casamento, is eight from 29 at 28 per cent with his progeny at the track and Appleby's horse could well enhance those numbers as plenty is in his favour on Friday evening.
Earlier on the A V Dawson Handicap kicks things off on ITV4 at 6.20 over six furlongs and it could be worth chancing John Gosden’s LOUJAIN at 14/1 (Bet Victor, 12/1 Ladbrokes, 888Sport, 11/1 General).
Gosden has an outstanding record at this track with 22 winners from 56 runners at 39 per cent, so it’s interesting the disappointing Loujain travels north for this over a new trip off a reduced mark.
Rated 77 after some promising runs in maidens, he’s not kicked on in handicaps since being gelded but he’s shaped better than his final results – particularly at Newmarket two starts ago where he raced keenly up front before weakening inside the final furlong.
He shapes as though he’ll appreciate this drop in distance and the trip, first-time cheekpieces and a new lowly mark of 70 could spark him into life.
Posted at 1700 BST on 28/06/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +366.34pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).