Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet column posted more profits on Friday and he's back with three big-priced fancies from Cheltenham and Doncaster on Saturday.
Recommended bets, Saturday October 24
1pt win Mac Swiney in 2.55 Doncaster at 16/1
0.5pts e.w. Kansas City Chief in 3.15 Cheltenham at 33/1
1pt win Presidential in 4.05 Doncaster at 18/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
MAC SWINEY looks a decent angle into Saturday’s Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster – the final Group 1 of a rather strange British Flat season.
A son of New Approach and from the family of another former Jim Bolger-trained star in Parish Hall, he’s probably only really going to come into his own over middle-distances as a three-year-old next season.
But while he’s been just as much miss as he has hit so far, the good days have shown Mac Swiney to be a pretty serious colt, including a length and a half maiden defeat of the reopposing Wembley, who is clear favourite this weekend in light of his top-class subsequent form.
They had both had a previous spin, got racing from a long way out, and Bolger’s horse just had too many guns for him at the Curragh in mid-July, since when he’s been outpaced in the Tyros Stakes, seen off Cadillac in the Group 2 Futurity Stakes back at the Curragh, before beating just two home in last month’s National Stakes, where runner-up Wembley reversed the form in no uncertain terms.
But I’m content to effectively scrap that effort from Mac Swiney, given he was posted widest of all and got himself into a bit of a mess against much speedier rivals when the pace quickened in the straight (briefly hampered).
Stepping up to a mile for the first time could unlock masses of improvement this weekend, while having looked ill-at-ease on the drying conditions over Irish Champions Weekend, ground on the soft side of good at Doncaster – with more rain to come – looks absolutely ideal for the sizeable front-runner.
A good position towards the head of affairs appears just about guaranteed here, with market principals Wembley, One Ruler and King Vega all expected to be played relatively late.
Megallan – behind One Ruler when getting no sort of run behind a bunch of horses before staying on at the death in the Autumn Stakes – could be another really nice prospect with 2021 in mind and might have a say in things too if able to sit a little handier on this occasion.
He had Roger Varian’s subsequent York winner Baradar behind when second only to the above-average Yibir at Newbury and could be a shade underestimated for a John Gosden team that seems to have swiftly put last weekend’s disappointments behind them (good run of form through the week).
But at 16/1 generally (18s with bet365, backed from 25s on Friday) it’s Mac Swiney for the pick of the value as his trainer looks to add to an illustrious record in back-end Group 1s in Britain.
Bolger has famously won the Dewhurst five times, plus a Champion Stakes at Ascot, and although he’s yet to capture this particular prize, he’s had horses run well before including Zip Top who was second in 2011, in addition to Trading Leather and Verbal Dexterity, who were fifth and fourth in 2012 and 2017 respectively.
Sticking with Doncaster and the Vertem A Fresh Approach Handicap, which doesn’t make the ITV coverage but represents a realistic chance for PRESIDENTIAL (18/1, Hills) to get back to winning ways.
A big-field handicap on a straight course is precisely what brings the best out of Roger Fell’s six-year-old, who showed up quite well in a better race despite not having the best track position on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket last month.
He was ultimately beaten almost five lengths but that probably doesn’t do the effort justice and, having been eased another 1lb in the weights, he’s now only 1lb higher than when successful on Town Moor in June.
That comeback win took his lifetime Doncaster form to 143521 so he clearly loves the place and most of those positive performances have been achieved with some cut in the ground. Fell also has a decent strike-rate overall at the track, while his autumn record of three winners from eight starts in course handicaps during the months of October and November is particularly strong (wins for Muntadab at 33/1 and 8/1 and My Boy Lewis at 20/1).
The yard's main man Ben Curtis is back in the saddle and the strong-travelling Presidential is drawn in six so should get a really good tow into things courtesy of likely pace-setters Musicality (five), Ejtilaab (seven) and Bear Force One (nine).
Down at Cheltenham, West Approach nearly always goes well fresh and could be the one to topple Frodon as he looks to go one better than when bumping into the well-treated The Conditional in last year’s Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Chase.
It’s hard to argue he’s a brilliant price around 7/1, especially with the Colin Tizzard yard just a bit quiet for the time being.
Preference, then, is for a bet in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier) in which KANSAS CITY CHIEF appeals for the in-form Neil Mulholland.
The 11-year-old will love it if the heavens open through the afternoon as his four career victories have all come with ease in the ground and it was really quite testing when he won at Taunton last December.
He backed that up with a head second to Phoenix Way in the Pertemps Qualifier at Huntingdon the following month and, after running out at the final hurdle with the race at his mercy at Doncaster, posted a cracking sixth at 66/1 in the Final itself at the Festival here in March.
That came off a mark of 133 and he’s now down to 128 after just the one comeback run when sixth to Sirobbie at Uttoxeter earlier in the month.
He made the running there and ultimately backed right out of things after clobbering the third-last, but he was thrashed first time out last season too before heading to Taunton, so there’s a good chance the outing was needed again this time around.
His jockey Victoria Malzard is incredibly inexperienced after just three rides under Rules and it's a small concern when parting with your cash, but she had a second this week on Prettylittlething at Hereford and it look to be factored into the price at 33/1 (Hills 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6).
Posted at 1700 BST on 23/10/20
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