Value Bet: Ben Linfoot's free racing tips for Kempton and Newcastle
Our racing expert Ben Linfoot seeks out the value at Kempton and Newcastle on Saturday and he has three suggestions at big prices.
Recommended Bets: Saturday, February 22
1pt win Financial Outcome in 2.45 Newcastle at 14/1
1pt win Faire Part Sivola in 3.02 Kempton at 10/1
1pt win Dashing Perk in 3.35 Kempton at 12/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Nico De Boinville could have a good day at Kempton on Saturday and he’s picked up an interesting spare in the feature Betway Handicap Chase (3.35) by way of Dr Richard Newland’s DASHING PERK (12/1 General).
This horse clearly hasn’t been the easiest to train as he’s had several long breaks, but that does mean he’s a very lightly-raced nine-year-old with just 11 career starts under his belt.
Indeed, he only had his second start over fences on his return from a 414-day lay-off at Sandown in December and he was really impressive, jumping superbly on his way to a convincing two-and-a-half length success over 2m4f.
The form of that race worked out okay with several in behind running well on subsequent starts, including a victory for Burbank, while Dashing Perk himself followed the victory up with an equally good run in second over the same course and distance behind Mercy Mercy Me.
That suggests he could go in again soon off his mark in the low 130s and, though he’s 2lb out of the weights on Saturday, that’s not too much of a concern with the step up in trip likely to bring about more improvement.
He’s a winning pointer who is related to plenty of stayers and I want to back him on his first go at three miles over fences given it’s what he was bred to do.
Tactically things could pan out nicely for him, too. I don’t think there is bags of pace in here with Black Corton likely to go forward, and I’d expect De Boinville to sit just off him and, hopefully, get the perfect tow into the race.
There are loads of hold-up performers that could be caught out and I wonder if Highway One O One will change tactics to a more patient assault with Leighton Aspell booked to do the steering.
He remains of interest back at Kempton and there are loads of other course winners that could go well including Adrien Du Pont, Double Shuffle, Just A Sting, Mister Malarkey and Kildisart.
However, Dashing Perk is the one that appeals at the prices, with Newland’s quiet February only a mild concern. He always ends the season with a healthy strike-rate and it’s worth chancing that this good jumper can get into a nice rhythm and get the yard amongst the winners again.
De Boinville also rides likely favourite Buzz in the Sky Bet Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle and he’ll attract plenty of support being two-from-two over hurdles for Nicky Henderson.
However, in pure form terms he’s not miles ahead of his rivals by any means and it could be worth taking a chance on Nick Williams’ FAIRE PART SIVOLA finding the necessary improvement at 10/1 (bet365, William Hill).
This horse has some good form in the book as he beat Lucy Wadham’s Trincomalee by six lengths on his hurdling debut and that horse beat Firak at Warwick on his next start, while he pulled miles clear with Calva D’Auge last time at Wincanton.
Paul Nicholls’ horse just got the better of him that day before following up under a double-penalty at Plumpton, so Faire Part Sivola’s record has a strong look to it and there looks to be plenty of upside in his current rating of 131.
Imperial Cup and County Hurdle entries give us an indication of what sort of plan Williams has for this horse, but he looks likely to run a big race en route to having a crack at a handicap pot.
Williams has only had one runner in the Dovecote before, but Amore Alato gave it a good go from the front end before finishing second to Irving and I do wonder if Chester Williams’ instructions will be to allow his horse to bowl along in front.
Either way, he looks underestimated at 10s.
Over at Newcastle it’s heavy (soft in places) with more rain forecast and there’s a precautionary inspection at 8am, so it’s going to be really testing if the Vertem Eider Handicap Chase (2.45) goes ahead.
There are plenty of capable sloggers in here, but the one that jumps out at the prices is Rebecca Curtis’ FINANCIAL OUTCOME at 14/1 (bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral).
I don’t think it’s any coincidence that the best he’s ever looked was over the furthest trip he’s encountered when he tackled 3m2f at Doncaster two starts ago.
He won by 28 lengths that day and might well have followed up at Uttoxeter after that but for making a really bad mistake four out, Lorcan Williams making an unbelievable recovery to hang off his neck before somehow getting back in the saddle.
After that drama he actually ran on nicely and the slower tempo of a four-mile-plus heat in bad ground should play to his strengths.
He’s certainly fine on testing conditions and looks all about stamina, being a winning pointer who is related to plenty of horses that shone in that sphere.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 21/02/20
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +349.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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