Free Cheltenham racing tips: Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet preview and recommended bets for day three of the November Meeting
Matt Brocklebank struck with 20/1 Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Coole Cody on Saturday and he's down to the one Sunday fancy after Milkwood was withdrawn.
Recommended bets, Sunday November 15
2pts win Riders On the Storm in 2.25 Cheltenham at 6/1
1pt e.w. Milkwood in 3.00 Cheltenham at 33/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)*
*Milkwood was declared a non-runner at 0715 GMT on Sunday
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
RIDERS ONTHE STORM (6/1 Betfred, Boylesports) is the one to be on in a good renewal of the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham.
He was one of the finds of the season last year after taking his form to new heights altogether for Nigel Twiston-Davies, and seemingly wasn’t a spent force before falling three from home in the Ryanair Chase when last seen in March.
He’d been unbeaten from three appearances earlier in the campaign, rising from a mark of 140 to 162, and while all of those victories came at two and a half miles (and slightly beyond), there’s no question he’s got a wicked turn of foot.
Despite dropping back in trip against high-class opposition here, I’d absolutely bank on him travelling as well, if not better, as anything in the field and they should go a good gallop with Rouge Vif** and Put The Kettle On set to be winging away at the head of affairs.
It might tee things up perfectly for Riders Onthe Storm and last year’s winner Defi Du Seuil, but the latter has it all to prove again now following a lacklustre effort when 2/5 favourite for the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Festival and is one to monitor only with the Philip Hobbs team scratching around for winners at present (6-69 in October and 2-32 in November at time of writing).
**Also declared a non-runner on Sunday morning
MILKWOOD (33/1 bet365 ¼ 1,2,3,4) looks one of Neil Mulholland's most progressive, unexposed hurdlers and he’s a great each-way bet in Sunday’s Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle.
Mulholland’s runners can often be overlooked at these early-season Cheltenham meetings but he’s got a reasonable overall record at the course (19-139 at 14%) and evidently has his team in good order at present after six winners in the last fortnight.
Bumper winner Milkwood is clearly a bit of a work in progress still after just the five starts over obstacles and this kind of test may, admittedly, come a shade too soon in his development. But knocking heads with Sceau Royal, Ballyandy (who reopposes on 1lb worse terms) and Buzz – all of whom have a lot of experience in big races across both codes - at Ffos Las last month should have done him the power of good.
Initial impressions, looking at the bare form of the Welsh Champion Hurdle, might suggest the 9lb hike for his impressive comeback win at the same track on October 1 has put him in the grip of the assessor, but I’m not buying that yet.
He still travelled supremely well, got a bit squeezed for room coming to the last flight, before sticking on really strongly on the run-in.
That was only his second ever run in a handicap, having previously been second to Scaramanga at Wincanton off a mark of 127 last December, in a race that has thrown up five other subsequent winners. He’s now been eased back down a pound to a mark of 140.
Further improvement shouldn’t be ruled out at all and a strongly-run race of this type could really play to his strengths. As should the relatively sharp nature of the Old Course, whereas a few of these rivals are going to want more of a stamina test over further in time, including Sir Psycho and maybe even Wetherby eyecatcher and market leader Proschema who was a stayer on the Flat for Tom Dascombe.
The Shunter is quite interesting sporting a first-time tongue-tie back over hurdles with Robbie Power booked and presumably set to carry a couple of pounds overweight.
He’d want the ground a bit quicker, though, which also applies to Sebastopol so Thyme White is feared most in spite of his lesser effort last term coming in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle on his sole career outing at the track.
It's an open race and Milkwood appeals most at the prices.
Posted at 1600 GMT on 14/11/20
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