Ben Linfoot's Value Bet: Free racing tips for day five of Royal Ascot 2019
Our racing expert Ben Linfoot has had 10/1, 14/1 and 18/1 winners at Royal Ascot this week - don't miss his Saturday selections for the final day of this year's meeting.
Recommended Bets: Royal Ascot, Day Five
1pt win Harpocrates in 2.30 Royal Ascot at 16/1
1pt win Highland Chief in 2.30 Royal Ascot at 16/1
1pt e.w. Dream Of Dreams in 4.20 Royal Ascot at 20/1
1pt e.w. Tis Marvellous in 5.00 Royal Ascot at 25/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Blue Point’s quick reappearance in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes lights up the final day of Royal Ascot on Saturday and Tuesday’s King’s Stand winner has a favourite’s chance of going in again.
He’s the best horse in the race and he absolutely loves Ascot, winning four from five at the track, his only defeat here coming at the hands of Caravaggio and Harry Angel in a superb renewal of the 2017 Commonwealth Cup.
If he settles well for James Doyle in the early stages he can be the first horse to do the King’s Stand-Diamond Jubilee double since Choisir in 2003, but the quick turnaround is the one niggle.
It’s difficult to do, especially when you’re tuned up for five furlongs on the Tuesday, and the 11-day gap between his two wins at Meydan in March included an easy Group Three assignment.
On balance I’m happy to take him on with something each-way and the one I like is DREAM OF DREAMS for Sir Michael Stoute at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4).
Stoute has had a great week thanks to victories for Crystal Ocean and Sangarius and Dream Of Dreams looks to have improved as a five-year-old judging by his two victories this term.
He was consistent without winning as a four-year-old, in Group Two and Three company, but Stoute has done a great job in getting his confidence back this campaign.
A drop in class to a conditions race at Chelmsford did the trick, but that wasn’t a bad race against solid 100-plus horses and he did it nicely, finishing really well.
From there he went on to Windsor for the Listed Weatherbys Hamilton Stakes and put in a career-best performance to beat Glorious Journey and The Tin Man.
He travelled very smoothly, went through a gap when asked and put the race to bed quickly, again finishing his race strongly.
The Tin Man was two lengths behind in third and was giving Dream Of Dreams 7lb, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to reverse that form off level weights, even considering his good Ascot record.
Dream Of Dreams himself has some Ascot form having finished a neck second in the Bengough Stakes last season, but he looks a better horse now and the confident Danny Tudhope takes the ride.
He is building an impressive record for Stoute, winning seven races from 18 at 39 per cent, so it’s no wonder the Freemason Lodge handler has turned to the red-hot jockey for this assignment.
The Hardwicke and the Jersey Stakes don’t really appeal as betting heats but I think there might well be an angle in the opening Chesham Stakes.
This is the first year the race conditions have changed, allowing the dam to be the qualifying parent if she won over 10 furlongs or further in her racing career.
That allows sires with more of a speed influence to enter the fray and it will be interesting to see if the progeny of stallions like Invincible Spirit, Dark Angel and Footstepsinthesand have too many gears for their rivals in this.
Lope Y Fernandez is a hot favourite and the €900,000 yearling looked very good on debut at the Curragh, but he looks very short to me on the back of that run and Lope De Vega progeny are only one from 30 at the meeting.
I’m going to take him on with a couple including stablemate HARPOCRATES at 16/1 (general).
This Invincible Spirit colt arguably has better form than the favourite thanks to his two runs behind Siskin, one of the best two-year-olds we’ve seen in Ireland so far this season.
In the Listed Marble Hill Stakes at the Curragh on May 24 he was third behind Ger Lyons’ horse, but looked like dropping out to last at one point before he rallied and gained a couple of places in the closing stages.
That was a really encouraging performance with a view to him stepping up to seven furlongs and he looks a good few points too big on account of not being the O’Brien first string.
Harpocrates finished ahead of Southern Hills in the Marble Hill, a son of Gleneagles that won the Windsor Castle on Wednesday, so his form has a very strong look to it.
Coolmore will have been delighted to get a win out of Gleneagles at Royal Ascot in his first season as a sire and he’s the stallion of the other selection in the Chesham, HIGHLAND CHIEF (16/1 General).
Trainer Paul Cole always targets the Chesham and has won it four times in the past, most recently with Berkshire in 2013 who took this race on his second start after making his debut at Newbury.
Berkshire was only third on debut but Highland Chief won, also at Newbury, and over five furlongs, as well.
It was a terrific effort to win over a trip as sharp as that on his first start and he responded to pressure to get on top late on from a couple of subsequent winners in Separate and Chattanooga Boy.
He looks sure to improve significantly for the step up to seven and looks to have been saved for this ever since that debut win 71 days ago. Prices of 16/1 underestimate his chance.
Finally, the Wokingham and a chance for TIS MARVELLOUS at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) to improve upon his fourth place in the race last year for Clive Cox and Adam Kirby.
Beaten a length in last year’s renewal, he stayed on really strongly and was one of only two single-figure drawn horses to finish in the first 11.
That was just his second run of the season and he came back to Ascot for his fourth start of the campaign, winning the Shergar Cup Dash nicely off a mark of 100.
Beaten off 105 a couple of times after that, he’s back down to 101 now and looks primed and ready for a serious crack at this race having had three runs this year.
His seasonal reappearance came in the Cammidge Trophy at Doncaster and he ran a good race in fourth behind Invincible Army, Major Jumbo and Equilateral, finishing on the heels of those higher-rated horses (115, 109, 110) off level weights.
His first ever run on the all-weather came after that, before an encouraging return to turf at Goodwood on May 24 where he tried to give significant weight to his rivals including Lake Volta.
He ran well in fourth and came down a couple of pounds for it, too, so Cox will likely be delighted with his preparation for his first big target of the season.
The drying ground is in his favour, he loves the course, looks fairly treated and he’s drawn around the pace centrally, too. At 25/1 he rates a good each-way bet.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +377.19pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Posted at 1700 BST on 21/06/19.
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