Free racing tips: Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet preview and recommended bets for day one of the Cambridgeshire meeting

Recommended bets, Thursday September 24

1pt e.w. Stormy Girl in 2.25 Newmarket at 12/1*

1pt win Sleeping Lion in 3.35 Newmarket at 22/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

*Stormy Girl declared a non-runner early Thursday morning (Vets Certificate)

Newmarket’s Rowley Mile has become a bit of a front-runners’ paradise in recent years and STORMY GIRL (12/1 Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4) is being overlooked on her belated handicap debut as the Cambridgeshire meeting kicks off on Thursday.

It’s not unfamiliar territory when it comes to this horse, whose two career wins to date have been achieved at odds of 25/1 and 22/1; the first of which came in a Carlisle novice when trained by David Loughnane last year.

It was a good juvenile campaign all told, winding up in solid fifth-placed finishes in Listed races behind Aberama Gold at York and Mild Illusion over this course and distance, when finishing just a length behind John Quinn’s Keep Busy.

Stormy Girl has progressed again at three, following a stable switch to the upwardly mobile yard of Rebecca Menzies and, after a fine fourth to Liberty Beach at Haydock first time out, she tried her hand in a couple of seven furlong races without success before bouncing back to score over six in Listed company at Pontefract.

After a really fast start, she dominated all the way and went on to beat a bunch of genuine fillies rated in the mid-90s, including Richard Fahey’s Exceptional who did her bit for the form by winning at Ayr last week.

The well-named daughter of Night Of Thunder wasn’t able to repeat the dose returned to seven furlongs in a Group Three at Doncaster’s St Leger Festival more recently, but a pretty respectable sixth there (denied a clear run late on) showed she was still in pretty good heart.

A mark of 101 probably leaves her with little margin for error in the British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap, but I’m not overly concerned about that given most of her rivals also have something to prove off their current ratings, and we could just see stall one acting as the perfect launchpad to success.

With the starting stalls positioned on the far rail, that should allow Cam Hardie to grab the ideal slot from the outset and with fellow potential pace-setters Auchterarder and Portugueseprincess deeper out, more towards the middle of the course, in eight and six respectively, I’m convinced Stormy Girl will be the one to pass at halfway.

Recent Thirsk scorer Betsey Trotter is unlikely to be far away from the speed and has won off her revised mark on the all-weather, but she’s pretty exposed all things considered, while Gale Force Maya is proving costly to follow and the lightly-weighted Quickstep Lady – a daughter of Australia – has been shown to be lacking the requisite gears for this trip in the past.

It’s hoped the selection can burn them off in the mid-part of the race and from there it could be a case of hanging tough – something we see executed time and time again on this track throughout the year, whether that’s on the stands’ rail earlier in the season or the far side, where all the action will hopefully be unfolding in this instance.

Front-running tactics are likely to be the plan for Shane Kelly on Lightening Shore in the nursery earlier on the card too and his proven stamina for the mile trip should see him go a fair way to landing this.

Favourite Last Sunset probably wouldn’t want the ground to remain too lively but the showers in the forecast will be a blessing and her game Ascot second in what looks a really warm event isn’t the sort of performance you can pick too many holes in. She’s clearly the one to beat going down the handicap route despite her mark edging up 1lb for that narrow defeat to Love Is You.

All eyes will be on La Barrosa in the Tattersalls Stakes and he’s another Godolphin favourite I’m hardly desperate to take on. He could be in a different league to this lot if he lives up to his pedigree and the deep impression he made first time out.

Perhaps Qaader is the most likely alternative up in trip after a 56-day break and that kind of layoff for a Mark Johnston juvenile suggests he may have been treated for something, or just badly needed the time to help fill out his frame. I can let him win at no bigger than 15/2 at the time of writing, but do think they’ve all got their work cut out.

The two Pontefract races aren’t attractive betting heats either, unfortunately, but back at HQ SLEEPING LION (22/1 Paddy Power/Betfair) looks capable of outrunning his odds in the Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes.

This is going to sound a touch contradictory as he’s a proven hold-up performer ridden by Jamie Spencer so we’re going to get anything but an attacking ride, but they might just cut each other’s throats in this proper stamina test.

Withhold is likely to struggle to match Mildenberger when it comes to front-running duties but he’s going to be hot on his heels throughout, while Ghostwatch likes to track the leaders and could be drawn into the battle a little earlier than ideal as well.

Ranch Hand will be afforded another chance by many after attracting support at Salisbury but he likes a good bit of dig in the ground and Sleeping Lion is twice the price of Andrew Balding’s horse anyway.

You’ve got to overlook a rank bad performance in the Mallard at Doncaster – a race he’d won for James Fanshawe last year – but Sleeping Lion didn’t get a fast pace to aim at there, has bounced back quickly from lesser efforts before and he looked a stayer on the upgrade when second to Cosmeli under top weight in a Newcastle handicap in July.

He was one-paced at Ascot when third there the following month but all he does is keep galloping and this course could really suit, especially with a potential scenario in which the pace collapses inside the final two furlongs.

He clearly comes with risks attached but looks worth a small dart win-only at 20s or bigger.

Posted at 1430 BST on 23/09/20

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