Free racing tips: Value Bet preview and recommended bets for day three of July Festival at Newmarket
Matt Brocklebank has had a profitable week at Newmarket and looks to highlight the pick of the value on Saturday, with three big-priced selections.
Recommended bets, Saturday July 11
1pt win Laser Show in 1.50 Newmarket at 20/1
1pt win Street Parade in 3.50 Ascot at 25/1
1pt win Keyser Soze in 4.10 Newmarket at 25/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
It’s no secret Cieren Fallon’s 3lb claim is one of the more valuable commodities in the weighing room at present and he’s the man to follow in the big handicaps at Newmarket on Saturday.
Fallon is improving sharply under the watchful eye of William Haggas and should relish the prospect of being back in the weekend spotlight after spending his past two Saturdays at Redcar and Chelmsford.
You’d be taking a bit of a liberty in completely ruling the 21-year-old out of the day’s feature – the Darley July Cup – in which he rides Abernant winner Oxted for Roger Teal (minus his claim here, of course).
Some of the family magic has evidently rubbed off on Fallon, who could hardly wish for a more willing partner on his very first ride in a Group One. It will be some day for the jockey if he can claim victory in the big one, a race that somehow managed to elude his father, but that was covered in Monday’s column with big-race selection Threat now only a shade shorter in the betting than he was at the start of the week.
I won’t be going in again as the confidence in Golden Horde appears extremely high and the Clive Cox-Adam Kirby combination rarely get carried away without good reason.
The favourite didn’t really handle the heavy ground in last year’s Prix Morny at Deauville and if the drying weather turns conditions tacky and testing at Newmarket on Saturday, then he might not be fully at home on it, but otherwise I’d be surprised if any of the older horses could successfully concede weight to this classy pair of three-year-olds.
Fallon takes 3lb off LASER SHOW (20/1 General) in the bet365 Mile Handicap earlier on the card and he can enhance Godolphin’s great record at the meeting.
He was hit and miss out in Dubai earlier in the year but did manage to bag a fair Meydan contest over the extended nine furlongs on January 23, and I like his proven ability to stay further back over what will be a testing mile.
Focusing on his UK form from last year, he won at Sandown on debut from John Gosden’s subsequent Kempton winner Riot, before almost doubling up under a penalty at Kempton.
He was collared close home there by Hukum, who has since come out and won the King George V at Royal Ascot, so it appears we could be looking at a potential Group-race performer.
That will probably need to be the case if he’s going to defy a mark of 97, but trainer Saeed bin Suroor has fitted cheekpieces for the first time, as well as gelding him, and there is encouragement to take from both ‘alterations’.
Since 2007, the trainer has a healthy 23% strike-rate (43-184) first time after gelding, with a 20% hit-rate (35-170) when fitting pieces for the first time.
He’s only had the 12 runners in that period with the exact same headgear/gelding switch, but two have won, while another couple of that particular dozen have been placed at Newmarket.
Any more rain could completely put paid to Laser Show’s chances of victory – he’s out of a Street Cry Australian Group-placed dam – but the truth is we don’t yet know that yet and it looks to be factored into his price, which is worth a small interest on his British comeback.
Cardsharp was the antepost tip in the bet365 Bunbury Cup but he’s not what you’d call a reliable sort and with fresh eyes on the race after declarations it’s KEYSER SOZE (25/1 General) who appeals most.
He’s probably burnt the fingers of many punters already as he can be tricky from the stalls but, having been given such a good chance by the handicapper, now might be the time to catch him, especially considering this race has tended to fall the way of experienced campaigners in recent seasons.
He lines up on the back of nothing sort of effort in the Buckingham Palace and has a huge amount to find with the reopposing winner Motakhayyel on that evidence, but I’m just not willing to take his Ascot form literally.
He’s been there five times now and never finished better than 10th, including a 26th of 29 and dead last of 30, so whereas plenty of other good all-weather horses have thrived there in the past, I’m convinced he hates the place.
He’s clearly very effective on the synthetics and still boats a rating of 103 in that code after a close second to Magical Wish at Lingfield off that mark in March, but he’s won on turf too and wasn’t completely disgraced in this race last year when drawn away from the action in stall two (ran in a miserable ‘group’ of two on the stands’ side for much of the way).
He was a 16/1 shot then, competing from a mark of 102, has only raced on turf twice since (both Ascot) and has been gifted another 3lb down to 93 after last month’s no-show.
Stall 12 looks a much kinder position from which to break this time, while local trainer Richard Spencer – who has always had maximum faith in Keyser Soze – is starting to fire in the winners with four in the last fortnight.
STREET PARADE (25/1 General) is another who looks to have been eased in the weights too hastily and he’s backed to take full advantage in Ascot’s Betfred Heritage Handicap over five furlongs.
He’s always had a touch of class, winning two of his first three starts before running in the Group Three Molecomb Stakes at two, and did pretty well in what is always a tough three-year-old season for sprinters last term.
He won first time up at Windsor and was raised to a three-figure mark, from which he was beaten just a length by Wedding Date on the July Course at Newmarket in June.
It’s been a tale of mixed fortunes since but going down a neck to Watchable at Wolverhampton in February showed the winter breathing operation had done some good and he was ridden conservatively after fluffing the start on his return to turf at Newmarket last month.
He had no shot from where he ended up on the track there and was beaten over five lengths in 11th. Another 3lb off leaves him able to compete from a career-low mark of 92, and he looks to be drawn really well close to most likely pace-setters National Anthem, Ornate and Benny The Jets.
They should help tow Street Parade along as he loves to be delivered off a fierce gallop, the kind of tactics executed to perfection by his rider Marco Ghiani on Tinto over the sprint course here last October.
Another budding star of the weighing room, Ghiani doesn’t quite get the attention of Fallon just yet but he’s going along nicely, winning two of his last 11 rides, and will bid to add to his tidy little Ascot tally (2-7) on Saturday afternoon.
Posted at 1600 BST on 10/07/20
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