Value Bet: Ben Linfoot's free racing tips for Betfair Hurdle day at Newbury
Our racing expert Ben Linfoot seeks out the value in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury including the headline selection at 66/1, while he has bets for the under card and at Warwick, as well.
Recommended Bets: Saturday, February 8
1pt win Acey Milan in 1.50 Newbury at 8/1
1pt win King Of Realms in 3.15 Warwick at 11/1
1pt win Quoi De Neuf in 3.35 Newbury at 25/1
1pt e.w. Zanza in 3.35 Newbury at 66/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The Betfair Hurdle is usually one of the highlights of the jumps season and this year’s renewal is arguably the best handicap hurdle we’ll have seen so far this campaign with a maximum field of 24 doing battle at Newbury on Saturday.
It’s good to see as it hasn’t always filled the quota in recent years and it does mean we have all the layers of intrigue that you want in a race of its type; up-and-coming novices, hardy handicappers and those that have largely proven their class already.
The most important factor going into the race, though, is the ground. They've had a dry week at Newbury, conditions are reportedly between good and good to soft and the minimal rain forecast overnight is not expected to alter the going.
The horses at the top of the market, Not So Sleepy and Mack The Man, might not be dependent on the soft and heavy ground their recent wins have been on but, nevertheless, they are priced up as they are because of their wins in such conditions yet here they are presented with a very different test.
I don't think the market has taken into account the forecast ground anywhere near as much as it should’ve done and, as a result, I’m taking a punt on two horses that look overpriced with their optimum conditions in mind.
Firstly, ZANZA at a massive 66/1 (bet365 ¼ 1,2,3,4,5, 50/1 General) for Philip Hobbs.
Hobbs has never won the Betfair Hurdle but famously trained Rooster Booster to be second in it three times, his most remarkable performance his third attempt, as the reigning Champion Hurdler, when he was beaten a short head off a mark of 166.
This year he has a three-pronged attack with Gumball and Oakley also having chances, but it’s Zanza that sticks out at the prices.
He was too keen in last year’s Betfair Hurdle when it was run at Ascot, but Hobbs always felt he was the right type for this race and he’s gone some way to proving it subsequently by winning two handicaps at Newbury off handicap marks of 131 and 136.
Both of those victories came with a hood on and he’s run without the calming headgear the last twice, when a creditable sixth in the Greatwood and when falling when going well at Ascot last time out.
The hood is back on now he returns to Newbury and, off 138, just 2lb higher than his last win here (that he was good value for having wriggled through the field from off the pace) he’s of major interest, with both of his course and distance wins crucially coming on similar ground conditions.
I also want QUOI DE NEUF on side at 25/1 (bet365, 20/1 General).
Trainer Evan Williams is in great form and while the same stable’s Mack The Man sits close to the head of the market the ground has turned in Quoi De Neuf’s favour.
He was really impressive at Aintree on good ground on his novice hurdling debut and he’s been running well on much softer conditions ever since, shaping like an improving handicapper in all three starts this season.
I loved how he spun around the corner in front in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in November, where he was short of room late in proceedings, while he was going well when brought down by the aforementioned selection, Zanza, at Ascot.
Seriously unexposed after just six starts over hurdles, he has plenty more to offer yet and Champion Jockey-elect Brian Hughes, who is two from seven for Williams, interestingly takes the ride.
The shortlist was extensive with Highly Prized, Stolen Silver, Sir Valentine, Oakley and Pic D'Orhy all considered.
Highly Prized was the closest to another bet, as he goes really well fresh and he has his ground, too. The 20s went on Friday afternoon, though, and he looks about right at the general 14s considering he has a 10lb rise to overcome.
Earlier on the card, ACEY MILAN looks a bet at 8/1 (General) in the Betfair Bet In-Play Handicap Hurdle (1.50).
There still looks to be plenty of mileage in Acey Milan’s current handicap mark of 131 judging by his excellent second off 3lb lower at Haydock two starts ago and he’s easily forgiven his Chepstow run in heavy ground last time where he was a beaten favourite.
The form of both those races has worked out pretty well and the better ground should help Anthony Honeyball’s charge see out the trip better than he has done the last twice.
The six-year-old first burst into prominence here at Newbury with a brilliant 11-length win in the Listed bumper at this very meeting two years ago and he remains unexposed over staying trips over hurdles.
Honeyball has a terrific record in races of this type at this time of year (he’s won seven from 20 at 35 per cent in 3m+ handicap hurdles in February) and it’s of no concern that he’s dispensed with the cheekpieces, as this horse has run well without them plenty of times.
He’ll likely be prominent in this and without too much pace pressure on paper there’s a chance he could get the run of the race as well.
Finally, KING OF REALMS looks overpriced at 11/1 (Boylesports, 10/1 General) in the Paddy Power From The Horses Mouth Warwick Castle Handicap Chase at 3.15.
Ian Williams’ charge looked a chaser to follow when he won a novice handicap on his fencing debut at Ascot last season and he ended his campaign with a win here at Warwick in a first-time visor off a mark of 137 (he's just 1lb higher on Saturday).
He disappointed on his return at Ascot in November, but shaped with much more promise at Kempton last time when fourth behind subsequent Sky Bet Chase runner-up Fingerontheswitch.
A perennial front-runner, he looks well worth a go dropping back in trip under an attacking ride and Williams has reached for the first-time blinkers which is significant.
Not only did this horse win in a first-time visor at this track, but Williams is also five from 19 at 26.32 per cent when applying first-time blinkers to handicap chasers.
This looks a good little race, but King Of Realms has more in his favour than most and he looks underestimated at the prices.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 07/02/20
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +356.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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