Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Free betting tips for Glorious Goodwood day four
Ben Linfoot hit the bar with 22/1 chance Maid Up on Thursday but he's hoping Andrew Balding can strike on Friday in the Golden Mile where he takes two against the field.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet, Glorious Goodwood, Day Four
1pt e.w Poet’s Society in 3.00 Goodwood at 33/1
1pt win South Seas in 3.00 Goodwood at 11/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The Unibet Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood on Friday is one of the best handicaps all season with loads of factors to consider including the all-important draw.
In the last five years 14 horses out of 20 placed in this race have broken from single-figure berths and four of those have won with the last two winners, Franklin D and Master The World, starting from stalls one and three respectively.
A potential factor this year is the pace coming from out wide as there are plenty of hold-up horses drawn low with Mythical Madness (drawn one), Escobar (two), Seniority (three), Fire Brigade (five), Firmament (eight), Master The World (nine), Third Time Lucky (10) and Hors De Combat (11) all usually ridden patiently.
Prominent racers like Hayadh (14) and Masham Star (21) could get across and help force the pace but the one front-runner drawn in single-figures could be at a positional advantage throughout and that horse is first reserve POET’S SOCIETY at 33/1 (William Hill ¼ 1,2,3,4, 25/1 General) after he made the final line-up following Zhui Feng's withdrawal.
Mark Johnston’s horse only ran two days ago when he finished 10th in the seven-furlong handicap on Wednesday but that doesn’t tell the whole story as he set a strong gallop and only lost several places inside the final furlong as he got flanked by the closers.
He didn’t run too badly at all considering the pace he set and he was beaten less than five lengths at the line, so he can improve significantly on that performance if ridden a tad more efficiently on the front end.
With Frankie Dettori replacing 7lb claimer Oliver Stammers in the saddle you would expect that to be the case and there are few better jockeys at judging pace up front than the experienced Italian.
Backing up so quickly is not a bother to Poet’s Society, either, as he’s as tough as teak and his latest victory, at Leicester in July, came just 24 hours after he was fourth at Doncaster.
Since then he’s been busy, running with credit at Newcastle after not faring so well at Newmarket in July. However, that Newmarket race has been used as a stepping stone by the winner of the Golden Mile the last two years.
Most of his wins have come over seven furlongs but he’s capable over a mile, winning over the distance at Bath and a quick mile like he’ll get around here looks well within his compass.
A previous winner at the track as well, in June when making all, he has plenty in his favour on Friday and with the market slow to react to the significant jockey change he looks well worth backing each-way at 33/1 with Hills or at 25s where available.
There are loads of dangers with Seniority a worthy favourite and David O’Meara’s pair of Escobar and Firmament big threats if they get the breaks, but the one horse I want to have a saver on is Andrew Balding’s SOUTH SEAS at 11/1 (Hills, 10/1 General).
He’s drawn out in 13 but he could get across and get a good position in mid-division considering the plethora of hold-up merchants drawn towards his inside and he could hardly have been any more eye-catching at Sandown last time.
Running off 105 in Esher like he does on Friday, South Seas came from an impossible position to get sixth with loads left in the tank after finding trouble in the run as well.
That was further evidence that he’s got a big handicap in him off his current mark after suggesting as much at Chester and he’s a horse with plenty of classy back form being a Group 3 winner and Group 1 runner-up as a juvenile.
It’s no surprise that this Qatar Racing-owned horse has ended up here with a good chance and of all of those towards the top of the market he’s the one I want to be with the most.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +341.34pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Posted at 1700 BST on 02/08/18.
Related links
Next Off
Most Followed
MOST READ RACING
