Free racing betting tips: Value Bet preview for Welsh Grand National at Chepstow plus Leopardstown & Kempton
Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to Sunday's high-class racing and picks out three big-priced fancies across the cards in the UK and Ireland.
Racing betting tips: Sunday, December 27
1pt win Hotter Than Hell in 1.55 Kempton at 14/1
1pt e.w. Dunvega in 2.55 Leopardstown at 12/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt win Double Shuffle in 3.05 Kempton at 16/1
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DOUBLE SHUFFLE (16/1 General) looks the bet of the day on Sunday as he returns to Kempton Park.
Second behind Might Bite in the King George VI Chase here in 2017, he’s evidently been really hard to place since and hasn’t actually won a race since way back at the tail-end of 2016.
That came in this very contest when rated 143 and he’s finally come all the way back below that mark – he competes off 142 this weekend.
Rated 162 two years ago and still a stone higher than his current perch at the start of last season, it’s clear he’s now been cut some considerable slack at last.
And while well held in a decent veterans’ chase at Chepstow from just 5lb higher on his return to competitive action in early-October, he’s never really been a horse to catch first time out, and the majority of his best form over fences has come on right-handed tracks (here and Ascot).
Conditions are set to ease further overnight which won’t be much of an inconvenience at this stage of his career, and he’ll enjoy chasing a good, end-to-end gallop thanks to Mellow Ben and The Kings Writ, who are likely to take them along at a fair clip.
Elsewhere on the card, there’ll be some more long faces at Seven Barrows if Shishkin doesn’t do the business in the Ladbrokes Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase, though I suspect plenty of punters will be happy to have a cut at stablemate Altior in the Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Chase following his late Tingle Creek withdrawal.
It will be fascinating to see which way main market rival Duc Des Genievres goes – especially with the Antepost Angle cap on – following his Shloer Chase comeback, though the hood is now removed on his second start for Paul Nicholls and it is, admittedly, hard to know quite what to expect.
With the Skelton team flying high Nube Negra might be able to perform above what’s expected of him according to the betting. I’ve always been convinced he’ll be a superb chaser in time and his novice campaign was good, if not spectacular.
He’d probably want a genuinely sound surface to be seen at his very best, especially in such hot company on seasonal debut, so he’s passed over despite being temptingly priced (18/1 and bigger at time of writing).
There are some winning machines in the Play Ladbrokes 5-A-Side On Football Mares’ Handicap Hurdle – namely Perfect Myth, Empressive Lady and Bannixtown Glory. I’m not totally convinced the former is completely done with yet having only found subsequent Cheltenham scorer The White Mouse too good when bidding to add to her impressive tally at Wincanton.
However, the bet had to be the third from that Wincanton race – HOTTER THAN HELL (14/1 General) – who has since run a very sound race when fourth at Ascot. She just got a bit bogged down in the pretty poached ground more out towards the centre of the track last time, while the first two came stands’ side to fight out the finish.
Both of that pair, Robin Gold and the reopposing Midnightreflection, have won since while the sixth, Printing Dollars, performed with credit in the aforementioned contest at Cheltenham.
Alan King’s Hotter Than Hell is 12lb better off at the revised weights and despite being held off similar marks since first going handicapping at Ludlow in February, still gives the impression she’s learning the game and may only just be fully getting the hang of things now.
Who to look out for at Leopardstown?
There’s a brilliant card at Leopardstown with Chacun Pour Soi facing a real test against Notebook, Put The Kettle On and Annamix in the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase, and the Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle should be highly informative as Ballyadam and Appreciate It clash over two miles.
I’ll be focussing on the hugely competitive Paddy Power Chase where I can’t resist a bet on DUNVEGAN (12/1 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6 Betfred).
He’s been pretty well tried from an early age and didn’t really make the grade as a novice hurdler but he’s shown enough in just four chase starts to suggest he’s up to landing a big handicap pot in this code.
The pick of his efforts last term came first time out when slamming Valdieu on chasing debut at Punchestown but he’s been brought to the boil a little more quietly this time, running in a Flat maiden at Thurles before an eyecatching effort back over fences at Punchestown last month.
He looked a likely winner turning for home but could only plug on at the one pace and he just looks like he’s dying for a proper test now.
Stepping up to three miles for the first time in a race of this nature is clearly going to expose any weaknesses he has but he’s also totally unexposed and it’s not hard to see him improving a fair chunk for the trip.
Last month’s Alanna Homes Handicap Chase wasn’t a bad race by any means either, with the runner-up, Tornado Flyer, going on to be second to Min in the John Durkan and Dunvega finished a head in front of Farclas, who is now a fraction shorter than him in the betting at Leopardstown.
I’d be a bit worried about what the ground might be like come the off (heavy rain on Saturday) for Farclas, whereas Dunvega handles any sort of surface but definitely enjoys a bit of dig.
His jockey Bryan Cooper is enjoying a real resurgence at the moment and will be buoyed by his Grade One success on Franco De Port for Willie Mullins on Boxing Day. Dunvega rates a decent each-way bet with several firms paying six places.
Published at 1700 GMT on 26/12/20
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