1000 Guineas tips: Newmarket preview and best value bets for Sunday May 2
Racing betting tips: Sunday May 2
1pt win Alba Rose in 2.25 Newmarket at 9/1 (General)
1pt win Fev Rover in 3.40 Newmarket at 18/1 (General)
1pt win Thunder Beauty in 3.40 Newmarket at 20/1 (bet365)
Santa Barbara has to be taken on at ludicrously skinny prices in Sunday’s QIPCO 1000 Guineas.
Despite everything we know about her flashy pedigree, her trainer’s record in the race and the bullish statements coming from the team behind her, the Camelot filly should never be as short as she is for Newmarket on the back of just a Curragh maiden win in late-September.
She beat the boys there and did so in good style but it wasn’t a great race for the track - the placed horses are rated in the 70s and 80s - and Santa Barbara faces a very different test on her first trip to Britain this weekend.
Stablemate Mother Earth has travelled twice here before – and to America – and she ran a belter of a race when third behind Pretty Gorgeous and Indigo Girl in the Fillies’ Mile. She’s clearly a tough horse and took her racing well at two with three runs in Group One company, which sees her fit the mould of some recent 1000 Guineas winners from the same yard.
I’m willing to cast the net a bit wider, however, and the two to back at big prices are FEV ROVER and THUNDER BEAUTY, both of whom ran in a really messy renewal of the Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc weekend when last seen.
Fev Rover – for whom I argued the case at 33/1 a few weeks back – was sent off a legitimate 5/2 favourite at Longchamp, having looked on a steep upward curve with seven-furlong wins at Listed (Sandown) and Group Two (Deauville) level at the end of the summer.
She was bumped about quite badly in the closing stages in France, Thunder Beauty doing a lot of the damage as it happens, but she stuck to the task well to be fourth under hands-and-heels riding and I’d like to think it might have really toughened her up ahead of her three-year-old campaign.
Trainer Richard Fahey is adamant we’ll see a better filly back on quick ground (was good to firm when she made her debut at Doncaster and when winning at Sandown), and she’s obviously a cast-iron stayer at this trip which isn’t necessarily the case with the likes of Sacred and Alcohol Free, who have won the two traditional trials over shorter distances at Newmarket and Newbury respectively this spring.
Fahey also adds cheekpieces to his filly which could keep her mind on the job and help her remain balanced heading into the dip, and I still think the northern raider is being a little bit overlooked in the market.
Thunder Beauty is less experienced than Fev Rover and you’ve got to excuse her the wayward tendencies shown when sliding about at Longchamp but her sire, Night Of Thunder, famously veered across the track en route to winning the 2014 2000 Guineas, and perhaps she has the odd quirk along with her abundant talent.
Thunder Beauty won a Curragh maiden over six furlongs first time up – which wouldn’t be a common occurrence when it comes to her trainer Ken Condon's juveniles – but proved that to be no fluke when an eyecatching fifth from a wide draw in the Moyglare.
She was still right out the back with a couple of furlongs to travel before making her move out in the centre of the track, passing some good horse in the process (including Mother Earth) to end up fifth, beaten just three and a half lengths.
She was travelling with menace turning for home in the Boussac too before it all went wrong on the really testing ground in the straight, while she could be a different horse altogether now encountering a quick racing surface as a lot of her sire’s progeny love to hear their hooves rattle and she’s never run on good to firm before.
ALBA ROSE is another filly expected to relish the conditions at Newmarket and she’s worth a bet to lower the colours of A’Shaari in the Betfair Pretty Polly Stakes earlier on the card.
Mark Johnston’s horse was improving steadily at two before a very tepid effort in a Listed race here at the end of October but the going was pretty atrocious on the day and she’s much better judged on her previous Thirsk win and Rockfel Stakes third behind Isabella Giles.
Joe Fanning couldn’t quite get his mount to the front in the Rockfel but she boxed on really well in the circumstances and shaped every inch like a strapping filly who would make up into a middle-distance three-year-old.
She’s a half-sister to the same stable’s Sir Ron Priestley and Subjectivist, who really took off in their Classic campaigns, and it’s not hard to see the daughter of Muhaarar following suit granted a stiff test and some decent ground.
She gets both here and while well-touted Oaks fancy A’Shaari could simply be too classy, at the prices I’d much rather side with the Johnston runner, who doesn’t look likely to be pestered too much for the lead in this field, should they opt to really force the issue on her first try over 10 furlongs.
Published at 1535 BST on 01/05/21
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