Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Free betting tips for York Ebor Festival Day Two
Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bet selections on Darley Yorkshire Oaks day, the second day of the Welcome To Yorkshire Ebor Festival.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet, Ebor Festival, Day Two
1pt e.w Arcanada in 3.00 York at 25/1
1pt win Bravery in 3.00 York at 28/1
1pt win Gallovie in 2.25 York at 20/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
It’s a tremendous renewal of the Darley Yorkshire Oaks on day two of the Ebor Festival at York with the Irish Oaks, French Oaks and Ribblesdale winners taking each other on.
Sea Of Class deservedly heads the market for William Haggas after her last-gasp win at the Curragh, although she looks set to be given a stern test by the Prix de Diane heroine Laurens.
Her French form has been boosted by Homerique and With You, fillies that were third and fifth at Chantilly, and both her pedigree and running style suggests she won’t be inconvenienced by the step up in trip.
Perhaps a bigger concern is the faster turf, as she’s probably better with a little bit of cut, so trainer Karl Burke will be hoping the forecast showers later on Wednesday at least take the sting out of the ground.
I thought she’d be a little closer to Sea Of Class in the market, but it looks a race to watch and enjoy with the big betting heat of the afternoon coming just over half an hour earlier in the Clipper Logistics Handicap over a mile.
This race looks ripe for a good each-way bet as I’m happy to take on the handful of horses at single-figure prices at the top of the market; Seniority, who looks short enough having gone up 6lb for his narrow win at Goodwood, Firmament, who hasn’t won in 20 races, Afaak, who is 7lb higher than when he won here in May and Sharja Bridge, who has a difficult task giving weight to everything in this field off a rating of 106.
Original Choice and Kynren are interesting from their low draws, but I’m going to take a chance on ARCANADA each-way at 25/1 (Sky Bet, Bet Victor, Boylesports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) for Tom Dascombe and Richard Kingscote.
He’s drawn out wide in stall 17 but he’s a horse with plenty of early speed, so hopefully he can start well and get across to attain a prominent position in first-time blinkers.
Dascombe reaches for the headgear sparingly but he does look like the sort of horse that could be sharpened up by the headgear and connections will be hoping they have the same effect cheekpieces did when he first wore the sheepskin.
In first-time cheekpieces he won at Lingfield in November and that was the first leg of a winter hat-trick, after which he began the turf season off a rating of 107.
A mini break didn’t seem to do him any good, but he ran okay in a Listed race at Haydock in May and shaped encouragingly in a seven-furlong handicap at York last time on unsuitably soft ground.
In four runs he’s dropped 8lb to a mark of 99 and that’s what marks him out as a good bet back at York on quicker ground over a mile on Thursday.
At this meeting two years ago he won the three-year-old mile handicap off a mark of 99, while in July last year he almost hung on for victory when second from the front in a mile handicap at York off a rating of 105.
He clearly loves it around York and now he’s handicapped to win again with the headgear applied it’s well worth rolling the dice with him at 25s.
Meanwhile, David O’Meara always targets this race with more than one horse and that approach has seen him win it twice in the last five years.
Firmament is his most fancied this year as he’s dropped to a mark just 2lb higher than when he won this race two years ago, but given he’s a short price and always a hostage to fortune it could be worth taking a chance on his stablemate BRAVERY at 28/1 (Sky Bet, Bet Victor).
The ex-Aidan O’Brien-trained horse is handicapped to go well here off 94, as he won the Lincoln off a 6lb higher mark on his stable debut and was second at York over a mile off 95 last October.
Gelded in the winter, Bravery didn’t reappear until late July but he came on massively for his first run back when a good second at Redcar 12 days ago.
That performance, where he didn’t feel the whip despite finishing a three-quarter-length second, suggested he’s ready to strike again and though this is a tough race his odds are too big to let him go unbacked.
Finally, it’s the Goffs UK Premier Yearling Stakes at 2.25 and three trainers have dominated this race in recent years with Kevin Ryan, William Haggas and Richard Hannon sharing the last eight renewals between them.
Those three are responsible for seven of the runners on Thursday, but it could be worth taking a punt on the new kid on the block when it comes to juveniles, Archie Watson, who trains the filly GALLOVIE (20/1 General).
It is on my mind that those drawn towards the stands’ side dominated the opening sprint on Wednesday and Gallovie is berthed in three on the far side, but it’s a bit early to be assuming there is a bias and what we know of the running styles of these suggests the pace is on the far side.
It is with hope then that Gallovie is not inconvenienced by track position and if she isn’t she looks ready to improve significantly judging by her run at Windsor last time where she was well on top at the line.
Watson has proven himself a superb trainer of two-year-olds this year with 33 successes from 102 runners at 33 per cent and they tend to improve with racing, too, which bodes well for Gallovie’s chance.
The form of her Windsor win has barely been tested yet but her debut second at Newbury was advertised in style by the Queen’s horse, Magnetic Charm, who came out and won at the same track by over three lengths next time out.
That’s further evidence Gallovie could be a very nice sort and given how unexposed she is for a red-hot trainer of juveniles she looks a big price at 20s to get the better of some rivals from the more established yards.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +339.18pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Posted at 1700 BST on 22/08/18.
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