Two-year-olds to follow from the Charlie Appleby yard this autumn

"We’re looking forward to the two-year-olds coming out over the next six weeks. I’ve said that from August onwards the two-year-olds are going to be our main firepower for the autumn and I’m very confident they will be. Hopefully, we can unearth a Group 1-winning two-year-old before the season is out and then we can have something to look forward to for next year."

Those were the words of Charlie Appleby during York’s Ebor Festival, taking comfort in the wealth of blue-blooded two-year-olds at his disposal when it was put to him by ITV Racing’s Matt Chapman that it had been a tricky year for the team at Moulton Paddocks.

Chapman certainly had a point. Crowned champion trainer in Britain in both 2021 and 2022, Appleby is currently ranked only tenth in this year’s championship, a notable dip from the high standards he's set for himself since sending out his first runners in his own name in 2013.

The most stark difference between Appleby's current squad and the one which carried him to such heights last season, for example, is the quality of the three-year-olds in his care – as David Ord outlined a couple of weeks ago.

In 2022, Appleby sent out no fewer than six three-year-olds who ended the season with a Timeform rating of 120 or above, namely Coroebus (127), Native Trail (125), Nations Pride (123), Ottoman Fleet (122p), Modern Games (122) and New London (120). This year Bold Act and Castle Way are competing for top honours among the three-year-olds at Moulton Paddocks despite both having a rating of just 114.

That's meant Appleby has been conspicuous by his absence in the major prizes this year, saddling just one winner – Modern Games in the Lockinge – from 15 runners in Group 1 races in Britain and Ireland so far in 2023. And hence why he's so keen for something to raise their hand among his juveniles in the coming weeks, a horse or two to go to war with at the top level in 2024.

Future Champions Festival the acid test

History tells us that this is the time of year when Appleby's two-year-olds typically come into their own and the Future Champions Festival at Newmarket is a meeting he's targeted to particularly good effect.

Not only has Appleby won the last two runnings of the Group 3 Zetland Stakes courtesy of Goldspur (2021) and Flying Honours (2022), but he's gone one better in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes with three straight wins thanks to One Ruler (2020), Coroebus (2021) and Silver Knott (2022).

We don't yet have entries for those two races, but we do have some early possibles for the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes, run at the Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket next weekend. It's a race Appleby is surprisingly yet to win, though Coroebus (runner-up in 2021) and Flying Honours (third in 2022) both used it as a stepping-stone to their subsequent Group-race victories.

Arabian Crown (103p) and Aablan (99p) are Appleby's only two entries in this year's Royal Lodge and they also happen to be the highest-rated two-year-olds among the current crop at Moulton Paddocks as things stand.

Arabian Crown emulated Flying Honours by winning the Listed Stonehenge Stakes at Salisbury on his latest start, proving well suited by the step up to a mile as he drew clear in the closing stages to land the spoils by two and a quarter lengths with something to spare (watch the replay below).

That was just a useful performance, but Arabian Crown promises to have more to offer and looks capable of holding his own at a higher level this autumn. The Royal Lodge is likely to be up next and, depending on how he fares there, he'll then have the easier option of the Autumn Stakes or the opportunity to step up to the top level in the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster.

Aablan is also entered in the Futurity Trophy and he's sure to stay a mile having impressed with his strength at the finish when making it two from two in the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown last month, ultimately getting the verdict by a neck having stayed on well to lead in the final 50 yards.

Aablan still showed signs of greenness at Sandown and is very much the type to go on improving as he gains in experience, though it will be no surprise if his connections go gently with him.

While entered in the Dewhurst Stakes at the Future Champions Festival – a race Appleby won with Pinatubo in 2019 and Native Trail in 2020 – it's worth pointing out that Aablan has plenty to find on Timeform ratings with the leading two-year-olds in training, Henry Longfellow (120p) and City of Troy (119p).

Legend of Time leads the potential improvers

Appleby has one other entry in the Futurity Trophy, namely Legend of Time (89p), who looked potentially useful when making a winning debut at Haydock earlier this month, showing a good attitude to edge ahead in the final strides.

By Sea The Stars and out of a smart winner over a mile and a half, Legend of Time probably won't come into his own until tackling middle-distances as a three-year-old, but he could get the opportunity to enhance his Doncaster credentials by testing the waters in lesser pattern company before then.

Of the other two-year-old colts in Appleby's care, Ancient Wisdom (97) created an excellent impression in winning his first two starts before finishing only third when sent off the 7/4 favourite for a Listed race at Ascot in July. He'll be suited by a mile when the time comes, though the fact he doesn't hold any big-race entries having been off since Ascot suggests he might be done for the year.

Similar comments apply to Haydock novice winner By The Book (88p), not sighted on a racecourse since that impressive debut in June (replay below), and Great Truth (88p), last seen finishing a well-beaten fourth behind City of Troy in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket's July Festival.

That could leave Appleby rather light for the big juvenile prizes in the autumn, as he doesn't exactly have promising maiden/novice winners coming out of his ears.

Emperor's Star (87), Age of Time (86p) – who was bought for €800,000 at the breeze-ups – and Musical Act (84p) are the best of the rest in that category following their recent all-weather wins, though none of them have been given big-race entries. Neither has Broadway Act (87p), who has shown fairly useful form in filling the runner-up spot in both his starts to date, finding only a smart prospect too good on both occasions.

Who knows, perhaps Appleby has a swathe of unraced two-year-olds ready to demonstrate their top-level potential in the coming days and weeks – Dubawi colt Military Leader has a hefty price tag to live up to when he makes his debut at Kempton on Friday – but time is of the essence if one of them is going to become the Group 1-winning juvenile he's looking for before the season is out.

Proven fillies thin on the ground

And if the two-year-old colts Appleby has run so far this year need to improve to be winning at the top level, the same is certainly true of his juvenile fillies.

Star of Mystery (97) is the pick of them on Timeform's figures, though she's failed match the form of her Listed victory at Newmarket in July in two subsequent starts, both at Group 2 level. After being turned over at 1/6 in the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes back at Newmarket, she then followed that with another below-par effort when finishing only sixth in the Lowther Stakes at York last time.

Appleby's sole entry in the Cheveley Park Stakes at the Cambridgeshire meeting, Star of Mystery is likely to be up against it with the main form principals in that Group 1, namely Prix Morny runner-up Ramatuelle (111) and Lowther winner Relief Rally (104).

Romantic Style (88p), who kicked off a notable four-timer for the yard when opening her account at Yarmouth on Wednesday, is the pick of Appleby's other fillies ahead of Dazzling Star (86), last seen finishing third in the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes at Woodbine earlier this month.

However, perhaps the most interesting filly to look out for at the backend of the season is Dance Sequence (83P), who will hopefully be back in action soon having been on the sidelines since making a successful debut at Newmarket in July.

There was plenty to like about that performance as Dance Sequence overcame both inexperience and a pace bias to justify odds-on favouritism in ready fashion, just needing to be nudged out to land the spoils by half a length.

The absence since is an obvious concern, but Dance Sequence looked one to follow at Newmarket and the large 'P' attached to her Timeform rating denotes that she is open to significant improvement. Her Group 1 entry in the Fillies' Mile at the Future Champions Festival suggests she's held in high regard, too, so perhaps she’s the one to give Appleby something to look forward to, both heading into the autumn and as a three-year-old in 2024.

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