Charlie Appleby: Spotlight turns to dark horses

It wouldn’t be a summer Saturday in 2023 without the form of the Charlie Appleby yard coming under scrutiny.

This time it was Lingfield Derby Trial winner Military Order’s tame return to action in a Listed contest at Chester that was the trigger. Fresh from the handler emerging from the major festivals without a winner at Epsom, Ascot, Goodwood or York it was taken as further evidence of either a problem in the yard or the class of 2023 simply not cutting the mustard.

Half-an-hour later the master of Moulton Paddocks won the Solario Stakes with Aablan, a race that can be a significant pointer to future success at a much higher level. Maybe he's one who could lead the fightback this autumn, snare a big pot on either side of the Atlantic.

Because Appleby is having winners – regular winners – and while some are in pattern races - the majority are lower down the ladder. Stars are thin on the ground and as consequence so are runners on the big days. The trainers' title has gone and delving into the data it's plain to see why.

Analysing Timeform's 100 highest-rated horses in each division at the start of September across the last two seasons reveals some interesting insights

Let’s start with the two-year-olds.

Aablan’s Solario win earned a master rating of 99p. So far this season only Arabian Crown (103p) has broken through the three-figure barrier. This time last year no fewer than eight had.

So you could reasonably expect there was a good squad of three-year-olds for 2023 then? Well not in this case. That octet have registered a combined total of two wins all season – and only one domestic success. That came in a handicap at the July Festival.

On September 1st 2022 Noble Style was rated 117p off the back of a stylish win in the Gimcrack. 12 months on he’s down to 107+ and was last seen finishing fourth in a Listed race at Chester.

Naval Power (110p) is now 109 and while he has won this calendar year, it was in a Listed race at Meydan in January. He’s not been seen since.

Silver Knott’s rating has gone from 110p to 111. He’s winless this term and was third in the Grade Two Secretariat Stakes at Colonial Downs when last seen in August.

Mischief Magic’s season has been even less productive finishing eighth in both a trial for the Commonwealth Cup and the Group One itself. He’s been gelded since last seen.

Flying Honours has only visited the track once, finishing last of 11 in the Dante, Victory Dance was third in the Newmarket Stakes and fourth in a Listed race at Deauville.

Mysterious Night has had three runs finishing last of seven in the Craven, 12th in the Jersey and seventh in a Grade Two in Saratoga.

Last September Highbank had a master rating of 100 and the big P symbol suggesting he could be significantly better than that. He’s our domestic winner – as I say on his latest start in a handicap.

So if the established pattern performers at two don’t come up to scratch a year later you’re looking towards the late developers to fill the void.

It hasn’t happened.

Appleby’s highest-rated three-year-olds are Bold Act (114) who has run six times winning at Chelmsford in April and Deauville last month and Castle Way (114), the Bahrain Trophy winner and second in the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur.

Military Order, who we touched on earlier, is next at 113.

So 114 tops the shop this year – last September there were eight three-year-olds rated higher ranging from the ill-fated Coroebus (127) to Noble Truth, Secret State and With The Moonlight (all 116).

A below-par crop of three-year-olds puts pressure on the other divisions.

In terms of early two-year-olds the cupboard has been bare as we illustrated earlier. The hope – and expectation – is clearly that late-maturing projects will emerge through the autumn and winter, which given the team and pedigrees in the yard is a distinct possibility.

And in 2023 the older horses have been unable to pick up the slack.

On paper this spring there was real depth but…

Derby winners Adayar and Hurricane Lane were back at four and victories in the Gordon Richards Stakes and Jockey Club Stakes respectively in the spring offered hope they’d be a presence in the big middle-distance races this term.

Sadly they proved a false dawn, both retired in quick succession in July, Hurricane Lane to Coolmore as a jumps stallion.

Modern Games won the Lockinge but the big mile campaign for him never materialised either and he too was retired after finishing fourth in the Queen Anne on his only subsequent start.

Native Trail was back – but having finished second in the bet365 Mile and eighth in the Queen Anne, the curtain came down on his career.

The highest Appleby older horses on Timeform ratings as we stand – both on 125 – are Master Of The Seas and Rebel’s Romance. The former had an underwhelming spell in Dubai but was a good winner of the Summer Mile at Ascot on his first and only start of the domestic campaign.

Rebel’s Romance was well beaten in the Sheema Classic and then unfortunate when clipping heels and unseating rider in a Grade Two at Saratoga in July.

New London (120) was third in the Fred Archer before finishing fifth in a Group One in Germany. Siskany (118) beat all bar Broome in the Dubai Gold Cup in the spring and after bombing out in the Yorkshire Cup, won the Grade Two Belmont Gold Cup in June.

Ottoman Fleet (120) won the Earl of Sefton and a Grade Two at Belmont before finishing third in the Manhattan Stakes back in New York while Warren Point (117) has been well beaten in a couple of Belmont Grade Ones himself after tasting success at Sakhir in February.

You sense any big races to be won from this team through the autumn will be overseas – and the overall picture of a lack of strength in depth explains not only the trainer’s drought through the major summer festivals but paucity of runners too.

You can’t fire ammunition you don’t have and for the first time in four years, the well has run dry at Moulton Paddocks.

The re-stocking has already started at the Arqana Sales and will continue at Newmarket next month but it might be a little while before normal service is resumed. Any revival in 2024 is likely to be led by horses we’ve yet to see or who are sailing well under the radar right now.

It's a big autumn - away from the glare of the big meetings - for the boys in blue.

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