Trainer stats and racing tips: Who is in form heading into December?

There are a few ways to answer that question, but we’ll use the percentage of a trainer’s runners which ran to form (RTF) based on how they performed against their existing Timeform rating. The table below lists the top dozen trainers in Britain and Ireland who had at least 30 runners during November.

Willie Mullins (51.0) and Henry de Bromhead (50.0) just missed making the top dozen, and while Ireland’s two most potent jumping yards enjoyed Grade 1 success in November – Sharjah in the Morgiana Hurdle and A Plus Tard in the Betfair Chase their respective highlights of the month - it’s understandable that neither has yet to hit top gear this early in the season with more important targets coming up. Instead, it was Noel Meade who led the way for Ireland in November, ending the month with three winners at the Fairyhouse Winter Festival, notably Beacon Edge in the Drinmore Novices’ Chase.

In Britain, it was Lucinda Russell who headed the RTF figures for November. She too ended the month with a flourish, and it paid to take note of the only horse she sent south of Doncaster from her Scottish base when last season’s Sefton Novices’ Hurdle winner Ahoy Senor looked a star in the making over fences with an impressive wide-margin win at Newbury in the John Francome Novices’ Chase.

Olly Murphy would have been one of the most profitable trainers to follow in November, returning a £36.61 profit to a £1 stake thanks to an excellent win-to-run strike-rate of 31%. Another 13 of the stable’s runners finished runner-up, underlining its good form. Thomas Darby landed the yard a good prize in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury, though a better effort came from Brewin’upastorm who beat some other smart hurdlers in a conditions event at Aintree earlier in the month.

Fergal O’Brien may no longer be leading the trainers’ championship but his stable remains in fine form, with two winners at Cheltenham’s November meeting and a four-timer split between Kempton and Ludlow later in the month.

A really good month for Donald McCain supplied plenty more ammo for Brian Hughes in his bid to regain his champion jockey title. McCain was another trainer who enjoyed some successful raids down south with winners at Sandown, Kempton and Wincanton. The Sandown winner was prolific novice chaser Minella Trump who went on to complete a seven-timer at Catterick later in the month when one of three winners for his stable on the card.

Running to form doesn’t always translate to winners, though, as David Pipe’s figures show. While only two winners for the month was a poor return on the face of it, that’s no reflection of the stable’s overall form as there were plenty of placed efforts, notably an excellent second from four-year-old Adagio under top weight in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Another to shape with promise was Remastered who was going strongly in second and likely to have been placed at worst when crashing out at the fourth-last in the Ladbrokes Trophy.

The most profitable yard in the table to follow last month would have been that of Nigel Twiston-Davies with a return of £51.06. Rocco’s 40/1 win in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase at Wincanton made the biggest contribution to that return, while Earlofthecotswolds followed up a Wetherby win earlier in the month when a 14/1 winner of a handicap hurdle on the Ladbrokes Trophy card.

Gowel Road was beaten on the same day at Newbury, but both he and I Like To Move It were useful winners at Cheltenham earlier in the month and are two of the yard’s better young prospects.

So which yards can be expected to hit form this month, one which sees some of the best racing of the season on both sides of the Irish Sea before the Cheltenham Festival? The next table lists the top dozen yards by RTF percentage in December for the last five seasons, with at least 100 runs needed to qualify.

If past Decembers are anything to go by, then, we can expect both De Bromhead and Mullins to click into gear this month, while Gordon Elliott and Noel Meade aren’t far behind the top two in Ireland by RTF, Elliott in particular deserving all the more credit for maintaining such a healthy percentage given the mammoth number of runners he’s had at this time of year. Leopardstown’s four-day post-Christmas meeting will be the main focus in December for all four who, between them, have won the last seven runnings of the Savills Chase. The latest one went to A Plus Tard for De Bromhead, though it was Mullins who dominated the meeting overall last year with 13 winners, including five of the other Grade 1s.

But while there’s little to choose between De Bromhead and Mullins in terms of RTF in December, there’s a big difference between the two yards in terms of profitability during the month. Backing Mullins blind would have incurred a big loss, whereas De Bromhead’s runners would have returned a £69.75 profit.

De Bromhead and Mullins could both have their sights on the King George VI Chase too this season, though would have to break the stranglehold which has seen 13 of the last 15 renewals of Kempton’s Boxing Day highlight go to one or other of two of the leading British trainers in the table, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson. Henderson has had either two or three winners at each of the last five two-day Christmas meetings at Kempton, while Nicholls has struck there in the last four years, with three winners in both 2017 and 2018.

With fewer runners, and less high-profile ones, Dr Richard Newland and Tom Lacey are two trainers with excellent RTF percentages in December. Newland’s useful chaser Beau Bay has been in good form in December in both the last two seasons, winning the Grand Sefton at Aintree last year and finishing third in the same race in 2019 before going on to win at Wetherby on Boxing Day. Lacey’s Kimberlite Candy goes well in the mud and has regularly contributed to his stable’s good December form in recent campaigns, winning in that month in both 2016 and 2017 and finishing second on his reappearance in the last two editions of the Becher Chase.

Philip Hobbs has had at least one winner at Newbury in December in four of the last five seasons, notably with Thyme Hill in the Challow Novices’ Hurdle in 2019, the same horse going close to winning the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot 12 months later.

Harry Fry won the Long Walk with Unowhatimeanharry in 2016 (also third a year later) and, in a month when the stable tends to hit form, Ascot’s pre-Christmas meeting also featured a win for Hell’s Kitchen in a handicap chase in 2018, a second for Acting Lass in the Silver Cup Handicap Chase in 2019 and a big run from Lightly Squeeze to finish third in last year’s Betfair Exchange Trophy, the card’s valuable two-mile handicap hurdle.

In the North, Nicky Richards and Sue Smith are the leading stables by RTF in December, with Richards enjoying a 22% win-to-run strike-rate which yielded a level-stakes profit of £34.21. While most of Richards’ wins came closer to home, his December highlights in recent seasons have been Simply Ned’s two victories (both at 16/1) in the Grade 1 two-mile chase at Leopardstown in 2017 and 2018 after being placed in the three preceding renewals, and Guitar Pete’s win in the 2017 Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

Smith saddled the runner-up in the latter contest last year with Midnight Shadow who could bid to go one better this year in what is now the Racing Post Gold Cup after last month’s course win in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Haydock and Wetherby have tended to be the tracks where the stable’s runners have performed best at this time of year; Wakanda finished in the frame in four consecutive renewals (runner-up twice) of the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase at the latter course between 2016 and 2019, a race Cloudy Too won for the yard in 2013.

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