Tips for Newbury: Best value bets Saturday December 2
It's the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury on Saturday and our Matt Brocklebank - who tipped a well-backed 6/1 Friday winner - has a couple of recommendations for the big race.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday, December 2
1pt win North Lodge in 1.40 Newbury at 15/2 (General)
1pt win Bad in 2.15 Newbury at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Twig in 2.50 Newbury at 18/1 (Betfred, Betway, bet365)
1pt win Stumptown in 2.50 Newbury at 10/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred)
Time to cotton on to Twig
A couple of horses have jumped out at me in the Coral Gold Cup since the start of the week and, with the ground likely to be far from testing once the frost covers come back up, both should be at home in the conditions at Newbury.
I’ll kick off with the bigger price of the two - although Friday support has seen his odds clipped - and that is Ben Pauling’s TWIG, once considered a mere shell of a horse by his trainer, who sent him off to the point-to-point/hunter chase scene before taking command of his career again last September following a string of wins between the flags.
That time pointing must have done Twig the world of good as he’s not stopped improving since going novice chasing back under Rules last autumn, winning five times in total (hurdles and fences) between then and this summer, when coming up trumps as the well-backed market leader in Uttoxeter’s valuable Summer Cup in early-July.
The highly promising Beau Morgan has apparently been a key component in this horse’s arc of improvement and - now claiming 5lb - he was on board again when Twig returned from nearly four months out in the principal staying handicap chase at Cheltenham’s Showcase Meeting.
Favourite again (4/1), despite racing from a career-high mark of 140, Twig ran a belting race, travelling menacingly into contention and hitting an in-running low of 1.3 on the Betfair Exchange – presumably when joining all-the-way winner Whacker Clan on touching down after the last.
Henry De Bromhead’s horse, getting lumps of weight from the second, found extra on the run-in to win going away but perhaps the lack of a recent outing just caught Twig out as he emptied late on.
He's up another 3lb here but still moved like a reasonably well-treated animal last time and it's worth noting that Cheltenham race has been a good pointer to this prize in recent seasons, The Conditional winning it before bustling up De Rasher Counter here in 2019, and Cloth Cap finishing third to Frodon at Cheltenham before bolting up in the 2020 edition of the then Ladbrokes Trophy.
The Hollow Ginge and Lord Accord have run pretty well here (both finished ninth) having contested the same Prestbury Park event, and Twig is the only one taking the same route this time around.
We know he stays really well, he won a novice hurdle on his only previous visit to this course (Morgan is actually 1-1 at Newbury on account of that success) and – without wishing to overegg the pudding when it comes to the ground – this looks his final chance to land a big one before genuinely wet, winter weather will no doubt see him put away again until the springtime.
There’s loads to like about him creeping into the Coral Gold Cup under bottom weight and I'm backing him at 16/1-plus (might even get 20s again come the morning of the race, providing it's on of course).
"He has to have a huge chance"
— Sporting Life Racing (@SportingLife) December 1, 2023
"He's the closest anyone has got to Constitution Hill. His hurdles form from last year is far superior"
🎙️ Patrick Mullins is expecting a big run from his old pal Sharjah in the Drinmore Novice Chase at @Fairyhouse on Sunday... pic.twitter.com/4V5oL1bbBk
Cromwell and Stump could bowl them over
The other one right at the bottom running from just within the handicap proper is STUMPTOWN and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him end up going off favourite so have to have the six-year-old running for me at current odds.
The youngest horse in the line-up, he already has a decent amount of chasing experience after 11 starts in this code following a brief, four-race spell as a hurdler. He's only won a couple of times over fences but, after an easy victory at Thurles in January, nearly pulled off a well-hatched plan when beaten a neck by fellow Irish raider Angels Dawn in the Kim Muir following an impressive first visit to Britain at Sandown the previous month.
He was pulled-up in the Irish National (15/2) when jumping mistakes scuppered him on his final run of last season but looks to have been building up to something big with a couple of confidence-building outings on home soil since returning this year.
He's another who has to overcome an even higher mark (runs off 143 compared to 135 at the Cheltenham Festival), but he’s clearly happiest when he's on his travels and trainer Gavin Cromwell - who was 5-17 in Britain through October and November - is on record stating this horse finds the fences in England easier to negotiate.
Danny Mullins has ridden Stumptown twice, including the Thurles win last season, and I love the idea of him getting into a good rhythm just behind the pace-setters around here.
There are some really classy horses towards the head of the weights and perhaps Ahoy Senor will lead for the first circuit, but Stumptown shouldn’t be too far away, gets almost two stone from that, and he looks a massive threat to all.
Bad the bet in strongly-run race
The Bet In Race With Coral Intermediate Handicap Hurdle could be fun to watch as the tearaway Doyen Ta Win may turn this into a relative test of stamina for a two-mile race on decent ground (for the time of year).
She was a revelation last season, winning four handicaps in a row and not disgraced in second when that run came to an end at Naas in March. A change in jockey, addition of a tongue-tie, plus an unusually sluggish start really didn't help when last seen at Killarney in May, but you'd imagine Kevin Sexton will look to adopt the usual trail-blazing tactics now he’s back on board for the mare's seasonal debut (tongue-tie removed).
Under Control and Brentford Hope are the dead obvious speed horses but I suspect there won’t be any hiding place, especially when you throw Celtic Art and Our Champ into the mix too, and everything might fall into place for the Pauling-trained BAD.
He probably wants more of a trip than this in an ideal world but looks to have been treated generously down 2lb for his comeback run at Ascot. Sent off a well-backed 5/1 shot from an opening mark of 126 on his British debut in the Fred Winter, he’s now down to 120 and if the comeback effort brings him on as hoped then this horse looks likely to be finishing stronger than most.
Look North for value against Jet
I can't really argue with Master Chewy being a short-priced favourite in the last, particularly after his Aintree form got a sizeable boost through Djelo winning again here on Friday, but earlier on the one to be on in the Coral Racing Club Handicap Hurdle is Alan King’s NORTH LODGE.
He’s not raced for 602 days but that sort of layoff is never enough to put me off a bet these days and his form in Graded novice hurdle races early in 2022 gives him a massive chance running off a mark of 142 on handicap debut.
The short-head second when conceding 5lb to Nells Son, with Bold Endeavour back in third, in a Grade 2 at Kelso reads particularly well and although the opening 9/1 swiftly became a best-price 15/2 on Friday afternoon, I’m more than happy to play as he looks just as likely to blow this race apart as the 3/1 favourite Jet Powered, who also returns from a layoff.
Published at 1600 BST on 01/12/23
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