Tips for Newbury: Best value bets and preview for Saturday December 30

• The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
• Value Bet tips are now available to qualified, logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, from 3pm before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App at 4pm.
• Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 120pts in profit.

Value Bet tips: Saturday, December 30

1pt win Bangers And Cash in 2.25 Newbury at 16/1 (General)

1pt win Farnoge in 3.00 Newbury at 12/1 (William Hill)

1pt Moon Hunter in 3.35 Newbury at 14/1 (bet365) - NON RUNNER

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Saturday’s Coral Challow Novices’ Hurdle card at Newbury was always going to feel like a bit of a drop-off following the sheer quality on show in Ireland earlier in the week but Nicky Henderson is looking to flex his muscles down the road at his local track.

The well-publicised Jeriko Du Reponet is back at the scene of his maiden success under a penalty in the Introductory Hurdle (12.40) and Willmount – a striking hurdling debut winner here at Newbury in early-November – is stepped up in trip for the Grade 1 feature.

Willmount is bred to cope perfectly well with the new distance, but he doesn’t yet have the best form in the book, Captain Teague’s Grade 2 efforts at Chepstow and Cheltenham setting a very respectable standard.

I’ve not got a lot against Lookaway, whose Greatwood form looks red-hot, or Johnnywho either, but the value bet in the race is Captain Teague’s stable companion FARNOGE, who is another unbeaten under Rules and won with any amount in hand at Ascot last time after idling on the run to the last.

He might not get things his own way out in front under Bryony Frost this weekend, but fellow pace-setter Lookaway could potentially be ridden with a touch more restraint now back up in distance and I can see Farnoge turning it into quite a severe test of stamina if getting into a good jumping rhythm.

That could be something of a leveller given the conditions (more rain on the way) and I’m quite sure we’ve not seen anything like the best of Farnoge yet.

He’ll be a staying chaser in time but looks a touch underestimated in this company and might be able to grind it out from what appear to be a few classier sorts on paper.

There is likely to be at least one deduction on all bets struck in the Coral Mandarin Handicap Chase, with Fantastikas doubly-declared and having a first preference at Haydock, but that’s not going to deter me from putting up BANGERS AND CASH.

He’s one of two for trainer Ben Pauling in this - a race the yard seem to target having won it in 2015 with Silvergrove and had horses placed in 2016, 2020 and 2021 - along with Bowtogreatness under Ben Jones, whose sole Newbury chase win remains De Rasher Counter in the then Ladbrokes Trophy. But it’s Kielan Woods’ mount who makes most appeal at the prices as I thought he shaped better than the end result at Cheltenham last time, still in there pitching three out before weakening up the hill.

He’s possibly taken a couple of outings to reach peak fitness this year having ended last season with a lung-busting, short-head victory over three and a half miles at Taunton in March, and I definitely took some positives from his latest effort after he was pulled-up on his comeback over hurdles the previous month.

Eased a couple of pounds, the unexposed seven-year-old is now only 3lb higher than for the Taunton win and connections are applying first-time cheekpieces in a bid to get him right back into the groove which looks a good move.

In the concluding Coral Get Closer To The Action Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase, the Nicholls-trained Golden Son has to bounce back from a very low-key effort on grim ground at Aintree and Walking On Air has no chasing experience at all, while the other market leader, Ballycamus, is competing from a couple of pounds out of the handicap on these terms.

The outsiders Henry’s Friend and MOON HUNTER – first and second in a novice hurdle at Doncaster back in March – are worth exploring. The latter was beaten three and a half lengths as the 13/8 favourite on Town Moor that day but he’s 6lb better off at the weights here and could run a big race if putting last month’s Exeter flop behind him.

The Exeter race came less than four weeks after a staying-on fourth behind Idalko Bihoue on chasing debut at Cheltenham and I just wonder if he’s a sensitive soul who needs a bit more time between races.

He’s clearly not been the easiest to deal with as Henry Daly held him in very high regard when making it two from two over hurdles 12 months ago, but the ability is obviously there if it can somehow be unlocked.

Staying chases should be his bag on pedigree and it’s obviously too soon to be writing him off after the poor run last time as he’s now slipped to a career-low mark of 125 and could be a lot happier on this relatively flat, left-handed course having done his winning at Wetherby and Doncaster.

I’ll take my chances with him at double-figure odds.

The small-field races from Taunton and Haydock set to be shown on ITV4 have failed to spark much interest as while East Street promises to be suited by a slog in the mud in the Betfred Last Fling Handicap Chase, it’s hard to argue he’s being missed in the market around 9/2.

Published at 1600 BST on 29/12/23

Click here for the full Value Bet record

More from Sporting Life

• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org