Tips for Ascot: Best value bets on Saturday December 23
Matt Brocklebank focuses on the action from Ascot this Saturday as he looks to unearth the pick of the value on the big pre-Christmas Saturday card.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday, December 23
1pt win Eden Du Houx in 1.50 Ascot at 10/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Larry in 3.00 Ascot at 16/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Teddy Blue in 3.35 Ascot at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
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Houx are you?
Don’t get too used to it this Christmas but Saturday’s Howden Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot has attracted a good, 10-strong field containing former champions, rising stars and the odd loveable rogue thrown in too for good measure.
It’s race I’m looking forward to immensely but the market does look to have things about right, with the unexposed West Balboa and Crambo topping the shop, and I can’t quite make the case for Botox Has stick, for all that he’s a tempting proposition around the 10/1 mark.
He’s officially a 10lb better horse than the promising six-year-old Crambo and Gary Moore’s charge is still only seven himself, and yet I’m not fully convinced this will be his ideal track, having really made his name with high-profile Saturday wins at Haydock (last November) and Wetherby (last month).
I’ll let him go unbacked and instead throw a dart at old pal EDEN DU HOUX in the Howden Handicap Chase.
I say ‘pal’, although I’m not sure I’ve got this mercurial character right too many times in the past, and it’s clearly a bit of a leap of faith to side with him first time out following another wind surgery since last seen at Newbury in March.
He was pulled-up by Fergus Gillard on that occasion but he’s such an in-and-out sort that you’re going to have to overlook the odd one of those before the case for him winning becomes that bit clearer.
Firstly, he evidently goes very well fresh, the majority of his best efforts over the years cropping up when returning from a break so I see the seasonal debut as a good time to chance him, while it’s surely significant that two of his five career wins have come on his first outing after a breathing operation. It must be a recurring issue they keep having to tinker with.
David Pipe’s horse won a bumper here at Ascot back in December 2018 and while all three subsequent victories have come on left-handed tracks – including a nine and a half-length triumph over subsequent Badger Beer winner Blackjack Magic at Ffos Las – he showed he was happy enough jumping fences this way around when beaten half a length into second by Zhiguli at Sandown last spring.
It's good to soft at Ascot at the time of writing which is possibly on the drier side for Eden Du Houx in an ideal world, but they did get 15mm on Tuesday and there’s a chance of further showers into the weekend so hopefully this provides enough of a test. I’d love him to be up there from the outset as there isn’t much pace elsewhere in the race and that looks the best scenario for Jack Tudor to get a truly run race to suit.
The late show again with Larry
There’s a bit more early pace signed up for the Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase, with market principal Blackjack Magic (1lb well-in following a collateral form rise) expected to be prominent and Harry Cobden unlikely to be hanging around on Flash Collonges, who stays further than the bare three miles.
Things could be teed up once more for LARRY, who nearly always saves his best for Ascot and has won a couple of times coming from off the pace over this course and distance in the past.
He’s slipped back to a mark just 1lb higher than when swooping late in the piece to win by six lengths on his seasonal comeback here last term, and he went on to show that a mark in the mid-130s isn’t completely beyond him with placed efforts at Newbury and back at Ascot later last season.
One could argue he’s possibly on the decline now after never really making much impression in a veterans’ contest on last month’s return to competitive action, but the front two bossed that race from the off and I don’t think they went quickly enough to draw out Larry’s finishing kick.
I’m willing to believe he’s still capable of a good deal better than that bare form and, now getting on a little bit, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Gary Moore used the Sandown run as a bit of a sighter before sending this horse back to his favourite haunt. He’s a very fair each-way bet at anything north of 12/1.
Teddy price looks early gift
Burrows Diamond in the Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase was the closest I got to recommending anything up at Haydock but the ground will be hard work there and she's unproved over such a gruelling trip so I’ll stick with team Moore for the standout value in Ascot's concluding Betfair Exchange Trophy too as TEDDY BLUE has apparently been completely written off by the layers.
That’s generally unwise when it comes to two-mile handicap hurdlers from this yard and I don't think it's hard to look beyond his two efforts so far this season after unseating Caoilin Quinn first time back at Cheltenham in October (8/1) and then racing far too keenly out the back early on under Jamie Moore in the race won by Knickerbockerglory (reopposing Altobelli was second) over this course last month.
Conditions were pretty terrible that day which wouldn’t have suited Teddy Blue at all so it was no real surprise, especially given the amount of energy he’d wasted early on, that he’d effectively shot his bolt by the third-last.
Faivoir was pulled-up that day and has already proved the form all wrong with a good second behind Gin Coco, while the well-held eighth Rare Middleton has since won by five lengths doing handstands off just 2lb lower at Doncaster.
In short, the better conditions this weekend could see a massive upturn in fortune for a strong-traveller like Teddy Blue and, following the two no-shows, he’s been dropped a couple of pounds and can now compete off a mark of 134, just 2lb higher than when runner-up to Black Poppy in the Swinton at Haydock back in May.
A good juvenile a couple of seasons ago and third to Aucunrisque in last year’s Betfair Hurdle off 133, I don’t think he’s done with yet in these major handicap races and is definitely being overlooked on this occasion.
Published at 1500 BST on 22/12/23
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