Tips for Aintree and Sandown: Best value bets Saturday December 9
Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to the quality action from Aintree and Sandown and he's looking to have a sub-market bet in one of the Graded races.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday, December 9
1pt win Not So Sleepy (without Constitution Hill) in 1.15 Sandown at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt win Donna's Double in 1.30 Aintree at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Highland Hunter in 2.05 Aintree at 9/1 (Ladbrokes)
On the hunt for best bet in Becher
Plenty going on at Sandown which will make for interesting viewing, providing it goes ahead of course, but once you boil it all down the BoyleSports Becher Handicap Chase at Aintree is by far the most engaging betting race this Saturday.
Never say never and all that but it would appear Coko Beach is destined not to win a Grand National around the punishing four and a quarter miles of this famous course. However, the Becher is a different beast altogether and this admirable grey – who is still only eight let’s not forget – could be a massive threat to all despite having to defy a BHA mark of 162 and the welter burden of 12-0.
Danny Gilligan seems to be Gordon Elliott’s go-to man when looking to take off a handy 5lb in the saddle these days, the rider having already enjoyed success in the Galway Plate and Troytown Handicap Chase for Elliott this year. The latter success came aboard Coko Beach, of course, when the grey built on his seasonal comeback run at Limerick to post a clear career-best piece of form in beating Gavin Cromwell’s mare Limerick Lace and a trio of Elliott stablemates led by Fakir D’alene.
Coko Beach looks to have all the right tools for Saturday’s Becher, including that previous experience over the fences and a prominent run-style which can sometimes turn out to be a considerable advantage in this race.
However, it is quite a competitive handicap after all and I keep coming back to that mark of 162. If he defies that and goes up to 166, say, then you’d be putting him on a par with a horse like Royale Pagaille who won last month’s Grade 1 Betfair Chase, and I just don’t think Coko Beach is quite up to it.
Ashtown Lad is another obvious one with previous around here but I’d be dead against him if it turned heavy. He’s happy enough on soft ground but bottomless conditions over this sort of trip would probably test his stamina beyond its limit.
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Undersupervision is the horse I’ve been keen on since the start of the week but him being forced to race from 2lb out of the weights is nagging away at me slightly and I can’t honestly argue his current price is anything to write home about.
I’ve warmed a lot more to the chances of HIGHLAND HUNTER anyway and reckon he’s the one to be on at 8/1 or thereabouts (9s in the odds place - he was backed across the board from 10/1 earlier on Friday).
This horse has been bought for precisely this sort of deep winter assignment and, after an extended layoff of 630 days, it was encouraging to see all the right parts doing all the right things on his belated return to action at Kelso towards the end of October.
In fact, I’d go a few steps further than that as on reflection he looked a shade unlucky not to go very close in the Edinburgh Gin Chase having not had a clear shot at Elvis Mail on the short run for home after the last fence.
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Formerly with Paul Nicholls, and Lucinda Russell during his time in bumpers and over hurdles prior to that, Highland Hunter is an excellent jumper of a fence when he’s on song and he was never too far off the pace when finishing fifth in the 2021 Midlands National, or when winning Sandown’s London National on this weekend a couple of years back.
He also finished second in the Welsh Grand National later the same year and he’s obviously still on a fair mark based not only on the pick of that old form, but also the promising reappearance north of the border.
Trainer Fergal O’Brien could easily have looked at another go at the London National but he’d have top weight in that and it’s perhaps significant the horse comes here instead, where he’s able to carry under 11st, as was the case at Kelso. That looks a bonus given the weather and just how testing it could become everywhere on Saturday and while I’d generally much prefer to back a horse with course experience around here, I’m willing to chance him at the price.
A little earlier at Aintree, I want a proper mud-loving horse on side in the BoyleSports Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase too and DONNA’S DOUBLE fits the bill nicely.
Sandy Thomson tends to punch above his weight in these quality handicap chases and I think we’ve yet to see the best of the seven-year-old Donna’s Double, whose sole chase success to date came over this intermediate trip on heavy going at Ayr back in January.
His season petered out from that point, including a couple of outings over three miles, but he was back in good form again when returned to this sort of trip at Ayr last month.
He’s obviously had some issues with his wind over the years as he can seemingly cut out quite quickly but the win came straight after a breathing operation and now Thomson fits a first-time tongue tie after the horse appeared to rather chuck it away last time.
Prominent throughout, he went a couple of lengths clear after jumping big and bold at the last, only to tie up and somehow manage to finish only third, and I’ve no doubt he was the best-handicapped horse in that race. A 2lb rise shouldn’t be enough to anchor him based on that evidence, especially given the fourth Famous Bridge has won a decent pot at Haydock since, and if the additional tongue strap does the business then he could take plenty of catching in a race distinctly lacking in obvious rivals for early supremacy.
Feeling Sleepy in Fighting Fifth
The aforementioned Betfair Exchange London National Handicap Chase is one of the more attractive betting heats down at Sandown but I was really hoping to see Beauport a good bit bigger than the general 3/1 at the time of publication.
He almost won a seriously competitive stayers’ handicap hurdle on his last outing at the course, having landed the 2021 EBF Final on his first visit, and he’s finally slipped to a mark from which he can surely win over fences.
He was getting going a bit too late in the piece when fifth in a typically informative race at Ascot last month and, whereas he won first time out last season, that did have the look of a nice tee-up job for something like this. I’ll have to see how the market plays out on Saturday morning with him as it’s probably optimistic but a drift to anything around 9/2 would almost certainly lure me into a bet.
Unexpected Party might be the one in a tricky-looking Henry VIII Novices’ Chase, but in the Graded races I’ll have a dart at NOT SO SLEEPY without the favourite in the rearranged Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle.
Let’s hope Constitution Hill runs for the good of the race but I’ll take him out of calculations completely (the bets in this market still stand even if he’s a NR) and focus on the race for second which could see Hughie Morrison’s charge in a positive light.
Goshen is a bit of a law unto himself and God knows where Shishkin might be soon after the tapes go up, but You Wear It Well and Not So Sleepy are the obvious pace-setters in the race and, when the ground is particularly testing as it undoubtedly will be on the hurdles track, then it can be hard to make up ground from off the pace.
I’ve no doubt Constitution Hill will be able to pick them up, but Love Envoi isn’t going to be asked to go to the well first time back on bottomless ground and the ratings strongly suggest Not So Sleepy could be able to concede the 7lb mares’ allowance to Wetherby winner You Wear It Well.
We’ve not seen the old boy over obstacles since finishing a well-held fifth in the Champion Hurdle back in March but his subsequent Flat form is about as good as it’s ever been, winning easily from the front off a mark of 98 in a seven-runner field at Newbury before performing well again under a penalty in the Cesarewitch in October.
He memorably dead-heated with Epatante in the 2021 edition of the Fighting Fifth before finishing third behind Constitution Hill and Epatante at Newcastle last November, and if he brings that sort of level – which the recent Flat evidence suggests he might – then he’s a massive player without the jolly in conditions he’s going to absolutely relish.
Published at 1600 BST on 08/12/23
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