Timeform TV Focus: ITV racing tips for Saturday

The Timeform Jury provide their best bets on all the ITV action!

The crack team of analysts, reporters, and handicappers behind their world-renowned data and ratings help you find more value every week with leading insight and winning picks.

You can now take advantage of their decades of racing knowledge for free with Sporting Life Plus, available the evening before ITV racedays at 5pm.

Epsom

2.00 1 pt – 7 Sparks Fly 9/2 general

Running Lion has 5 lb in hands of her rivals on Timeform ratings in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes and it would be no surprise were she to win, but we do have a slight niggle about supporting her at a short price given she’s been beaten at shortish odds a couple of times in her last few starts, while the fact that she had to be withdrawn from the Oaks after panicking and playing up in her stall on this weekend last year is another concern. Sparks Fly looks a viable alternative. One of the success stories of 2023, winning eight times and progressing from an opening win off 59 to streeting her rivals in a Saint-Cloud listed race in the autumn. Her reappearance fifth in a handicap at Haydock five weeks ago over an inadequate seven furlongs suggests she should retain all her ability, she’s back over a much more suitable trip and stall one for the second race on the card should ensure she gets the best of the fresh ground on the inside.

2.35 1 pt – 2 Embesto 4/1 general

4/1 the field in an eight-runner race on Friday afternoon tells of an open-looking renewal of the Diomed, though that’s as much to do with concerns over well-being as it is with how closely matched they are on form. Regal Reality and Highland Avenue are again in the field after filling the first two places respectively 12 months ago, though the latter has a penalty to carry this time round and looks vulnerable as a result. In the hope that a first-time hood has a positive effect we’re prepared to give Embesto another chance after a disappointing return in the Earl of Sefton. For the second race in succession Embesto was keener than ideal at Newmarket, also disadvantaged by being held up in a race that was heavily influenced by a tailwind. Some of his three-year-old form stacks up well in the context of this race and hopefully the headgear will enable him to drop the bridle better through the early stages and have more left for the finish as a result.

3.10 0.5 pt ew – 6 Blue Storm 11/1 general

The 3YO Dash is a very difficult race to call right and the each-way terms on offer – five, six or even seven places are available with bookmakers – mean it’s best played that way. One that appeals from that point of view is Blue Storm, who’s run well on each of his three outings for Gemma Tutty and has the potential to improve a bit more this year. His mark of 88 still looks fair judged on an impressive win in nursery company at Southwell in December and his reappearance fourth at the Chester May meeting contained a fair bit of promise. He might easily sharpen up for that effort, and the prospect of a furiously-run race in a big field should prove ideal for one that has on occasions raced a bit too freely, with the rail draw in stall 20 perhaps an advantage as well, provided Rossa Ryan manages to chart a mostly trouble-free passage.

3.45 1 pt – 1 Clarendon House 6/1 general

Silky Wilkie and Clarendon House went down in a three-way photo for this race last year and it’s easy to understand why they are at the top of the market 12 months on. Silky Wilkie is much better off at the weights this year than last, but the two horses have experienced very different fortunes since and, given he comes here in career-best form and is a slightly bigger price, we’re happy to give Clarendon House the nod. Clarendon House has won three of his five starts in handicaps since last year’s Dash (Silky Wilkie 0/7), the latest of which came in a deep handicap at York’s Dante meeting where he travelled supremely well before quickening to lead late on. That showed that he’s well suited to giving weight to inferior rivals so a 6 lb rise may not be enough to stop him, especially with a third of the field out of the handicap due to his presence. Being drawn next to Night On Earth should ensure he gets a good tow, and he can use this as a further springboard to a Nunthorpe bid. 

4.30 1 pt – 4 City of Troy 3/1 general

It’s not hard to come up with a list of negatives for City of Troy’s chance of winning the Derby – he was so disappointing in the Guineas, he needs to prove he’s trained on, there must be some doubt about the trip, he was being challenged for favouritism by a stablemate earlier in the week and, to top it off, he’s drawn in stall 1 which historically has had a poor record in the race. Against that, however, is the fact that, on raw ability, he could be head and shoulders above his rivals. He looked so good at two and it’s not like he was beating second-raters either, Haatem well in his wake in both the Superlative and the Dewhurst. It’s hard to forget the way Auguste Rodin bounced right back from such a poor run in the Guineas to win the Derby just 12 months ago for the stable, while City of Troy’s full-brother Bertinelli was a good third under a big weight in a briskly-run King George V Handicap last year to give plenty of hope that the trip will be within range. What’s more, although it’s a big field, it certainly doesn’t look a vintage Derby in terms of strength in depth, none of those who beat him in the Guineas are taking their chance, neither of the trial winners from Chester are here for one reason or another, the Sandown Classic Trial winner Arabian Crown has been sidelined and, most significantly, the impressive Dante winner hasn’t been supplemented. Straight after the Guineas it would have been impossible to entertain backing him as favourite for this but things change and, in our view, he’s the best value in the race at 10/3 or 3/1.

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.