Nic Doggett provides an overview of the key things to note on Saturday.
It’s the 27th is it? What day of the week is that? Saturday, you say? Oh. I thought it was Wednesday. I’ve totally lost track of the days.
And repeat.
Luckily, there’s nothing repetitive about the horse racing over this festive period, perhaps with the exception of the general quality being more akin to a normal Saturday afternoon, but just every day.
A Grand affair
I quite like that there are a lot of regional ‘National’ races; you never know when you’re going to unwittingly stumble onto the North-North-East-Wednesday-Market National or the Former-Coalminers-Social-Club-Midlands-South National.
With its powerful rendition of the Welsh National Anthem sung prior to it, the Coral Welsh Grand National (14:50) has perhaps the most prestige of any of the non-Aintree races, and is the race for local trainers. Christian Williams won in 2019, fellow Welshman Evan Williams won the delayed 2020 renewal, Abergavenny-born Sam Thomas won the 2021 version, while last year’s winning trainer Mel Rowley is just over the border in Shropshire.
This year’s renewal looks as competitive as ever, with Thomas’s Jubilee Express (a ‘Horse In Focus’) just heading the betting following his win here earlier in the month; a 4 lb penalty likely underestimates his chance from a handicapping point of view.
Leading Welsh trainer Rebecca Curtis saddles Haiti Couleurs who drops in grade after pulling up in the Betfair Chase last month. He looks the perfect type for this assignment, and the unseasonably good ground should aid his chance for all he is also at home in the mud.
Timeform weight-adjusted ratings highlight the claims of Ascot winner Rock My Way, (representing ‘Hot Trainer’ Joe Tizzard whose dad Colin won this in 2016 and 2028), Collectors Item and ‘Horse In Focus’ Mr Vango, though the last two will both face stiff competition for the lead in a race in which front-runners are in abundance.
It’s a race that Ireland has done well in, so it’s a little surprising that Raz De Maree was the most recent Irish-trained winner in the delayed 2017 renewal. Bryony Frost is a notable jockey booking for the Thomas Gibney-trained Intense Raffles who looks to have been teed up for this race; the Hennessy eighth looks the pick of the Irish runners.
The power of the ‘p/P’
Last year’s running of the Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle (13:40) went the way of the impressive French raider Nietzsche Has who – like Comfort Zone and Salver in the preceding years – boasted the best form prior to the race and lived up to his reputation in it.
Will this year’s winning favourite – if there is to be one – fit the same bill?
The best French form arguably belongs to Manlaga, a Nicky Henderson-trained and JP McManus-owned filly who has her first start since easily winning a fillies’ hurdle at Auteuil in March, while Macktoad won his bumper in France in May and made a big impression when scoring on his British/hurdling bow at Sandown earlier this month.
So much so, that he has been given the ‘Large P’ symbol attached to his rating of 138 by the Timeform race reporters, which denotes that ‘the horse is capable of much better’.
Trained by Gary (and Josh) Moore who has won two of the last four renewals, Macktoad is likely to go off the favourite, but the best form on offer according to a strict reading of the numbers alone, is shared by Kaldoun Des Rocs and Sonic Pioneer. The first-named was actually behind Macktoad at Sandown but was unfavoured by the way the race developed having been held up, while Sonic Pioneer impressively made all at Kempton on his hurdling bow and may be going under the radar with the bookies due to his less fashionable yard.
A puzzle, then, though surely still easier than those instructions for the technic Lego you foolishly bought for little Jimmy.
Focus on Ireland
Kempton’s fine card features the Ladbrokes-sponsored Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase (13:55) and Desert Orchid Handicap Chase (14:30), while Wetherby's meeting is competitive if a little more mundane, however it was a little remiss of me not to give Ireland more focus last time.
While Leopardstown’s St Stephen’s Day card focused more on horses for the future, this one is a little more about the here and now, with a pair of Grade 1s.
Tactics could again prove crucial in the Paddy's Rewards Club Chase (13:12), as they did last year when Solness ran them ragged on the favoured part of the track. He’s surely overpriced (double figures) as he bids for a repeat, but the market is dominated by Majborough (second to the reopposing Found A Fifty at Cork last time) and Champion Chase hero Marine Nationale who makes his seasonal reappearance in tough company.
The Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle (13:47) looks a tremendous renewal and there are more ‘p’s attached to Timeform ratings than a leftover plate from a spoilt child (editor’s note: Please refrain from insulting your own children).
All eight are expected to improve upon their rating, but Love Me Tender comes out nicely on top before all that is said and done, having looked a very smart prospect when coming nicely clear in a Grade 3 at Tipperary when last seen in October. Stablemate Le Divin Enfant looked a little out of the ordinary himself when sauntering clear at Thurles, but he is priced more on reputation and potential than substance.
Over at Limerick, Gavin Cromwell’s Bioluminescense broke the dominance of Willie Mullins when winning the McMahons Builders Providers Irish EBF Dawn Run Mares Novice Chase (1.27) last season and, though improvement is expected following Jade De Grugy’s underwhelming chasing debut last month, the yard may have to settle for second once again as the Henry De Bromhead-trained The Big Westerner looked a horse to follow when chasing home Jimmy Du Seuil on her own debut over fences and the longer trip here should suit the Albert Bartlett runner-up.
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