Timefigure tips for day two of Randox Grand National Festival at Aintree

The third and final day of what has been an enjoyable Aintree meeting – one that, for me, illustrates the benefits of condensing top-class action into three days – looks set to take place on ground that won’t be as testing as might have been feared earlier in the week.

The last time Timeform called the ground soft on opening day was back in 2018 and while Timeform’s internal going allowance used to calculate timefigures was slower on both the hurdles course and the chase course on Thursday than it was back then, little or no rain in the forecast ought to ensure at least that the National won’t be run in a mudbath.

That observation doesn’t make picking winners any easier, of course, but there are a couple of horses that catch my eye from a timefigure perspective and the first of them is CALDWELL POTTER in the second race, the Grade 1 Mersey Novices Hurdle over two and a half miles in which its slightly surprising to see the Mares’ Novice runner-up Brighterdaysahead head the early betting.

Unfortunately the strength of that form wasn’t able to be tested on Friday when the winner Golden Ace was withdrawn from the Top Novices’ Hurdle, but Brighterdaysahead is already a winner at a trip further than she tackles here and, much like her compatriot Jade De Grugy did subsequently at Fairyhouse, she might well relish the return to a longer trip having been done for speed at Cheltenham.

Her trainer Gordon Elliott will know what he is up against in the form of Caldwell Potter, however, who he trained until his recent high-profile sale to join Paul Nicholls. Caldwell Potter looked a bit special when beating Predators Gold by six and a half lengths at Leopardstown over Christmas, the pair over a distance clear in testing conditions in a race-leading fast time, and though subsequent events have shown that race didn’t have the strength in depth it looked to have at the time, Predators Gold went down by only a length or so to Albert Bartlett third Dancing City at the Dublin Racing Festival (he clearly wasn’t himself at Cheltenham in the Gallagher).

The decision to miss Cheltenham with Caldwell Potter, where he would probably have come up against Gallagher runner-up Jimmy Du Seuil and third Ile Atlantique, who both run here, was probably a wise one and on that Leopardstown performance, which was a very strong-staying one at two miles, it’s difficult to conceive he wouldn’t have got closer to Ballyburn than the 13 lengths Jimmy Du Seuil managed.

Nicholls is already on the scoresheet at Aintree having saddled Sans Bruit to win on Thursday and he’ll be keen to hit first time out with his new acquisition for some of his most loyal owners. He’s got a 4lb advantage on the clock and will relish the step up in trip.

Five horses who contested the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham reoppose in the Liverpool Hurdle and given Flooring Porter fared best of those behind Teahupoo it’s no surprise to see him at the top of the betting for a race in which he has finished second and third in the past two seasons.

Indeed, several of those that contested this race last season when he was third line up again and the one that interests me most despite his advancing years is the 12-year-old and defending champion SIRE DU BERLAIS who is easily the best of these on the clock on their efforts over the past couple of years.

His latest campaign has been a rather different one to that the season before when he came here fresh from a win in the Stayers’, but there were clear signs in that race last month that he’s ready to strike.

That Stayers’ Hurdle run was just his second of the season having made a belated reappearance only a month before and wouldn’t have suited his strong-staying style given the steady pace it was run at (finishing speed of the winner was 107.5%), but it’s interesting to note from the sectionals provided by Course Track that only Teahupoo ran the final furlong and penultimate furlong faster than he did and only two horses ran the third-last furlong faster as he tried to get competitive from a poor position.

A 10-length fifth doesn’t really convey how well he ran in the circumstances, the set up here promises to suit him much better and if he takes another step forward from that run, as he is entitled to, he’s going to take a fair amount of beating.

It seemed to me earlier in the season that after Hercule Du Seuil took a Grade 3 novice chase at Punchestown in October in a 153 timefigure that he would take very high rank as a novice chaser and he finally gets the chance to show me if my assertion was correct when he reappears after a six-month absence in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase.

The presence of two other out-and-out front runners in the shape of Matata and Nickle Back promises to expose any weakness he might have, however, assuming he is gunned from the front as he has been so far over fences, but that scenario ought to bring the best out of Found A Fifty who found only Gaelic Warrior too good in the Arkle when posting a 154 timefigure.

The strength of that form was illustrated earlier this week when Arkle third Il Etait Temps made mincemeat of Turners one-two Grey Dawning and Ginny’s Destiny in the opening race of the meeting but the suspicion that Hercule Du Seuil might be ridden with a bit more restraint on this occasion persuades me to give the race a swerve.

Recommended bets

1pt win Caldwell Potter in the 1.55 (11/4)

1pt win Sire Du Berlais in the 3.05 (11/2)

More Grand National tips and features

• Grand National Preview Podcast
• Horse-by-horse guide
• Statistical analysis and trends
• What the pedigrees say
• Graham Cunningham: Mission possible
• 'Jumpability' ratings and insight
• Key numbers behind the National
• Simon Holt on the remarkable Kitty's Light
• Record of Gold Cup horses
• Heavy ground Grand Nationals
• National runners who love soft ground
• Grand National Quiz
• Andrew Asquith's Weekend View
• Alex Hammond Blog
• WATCH: Grand National thoughts

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