Timefigure tips for Cheltenham Festival 2024 day three

THURSDAY

Fourteen of the sixteen horses that made the first four in the four Grade 1 contests on Tuesday, the first five in the Boodles and the first two in the National Hunt Challenge Cup illustrate the total domination of the Irish challenge on the opening day with only the Ultima - last won by Ireland in 2006 - being the traditional sole port in the storm for the domestic challenge.

That onslaught continued in the opening skirmish on Wednesday (first five in the Gallagher) so while it might seem counterproductive to look to the home challenge in the Turners for Thursday’s opening bet not only is it stronger numerically (seven against four) but seemingly deeper in ability too.

The best of the Irish on the clock is not the horse once hailed as the next superstar, Facile Vega, whose participation was in doubt until very recently given he reportedly hadn’t been pleasing his trainer and is now trying a new trip, but Letsbeclearaboutit who was impressive at Cork in November but hasn’t quite gone on as expected from that albeit one of those subsequent runs was at an inadequate two miles.

Current favourite Grey Dawning is the best of these on the clock having run to a whopping 161 when winning the Classic Chase at Warwick last time, but that strong-staying performance, where he beat Challenge Cup flop Apple Away, only served to reinforce earlier impressions that his long-term future lies beyond two and a half miles and with that in mind the horse who beat him at Cheltenham on his previous start, Ginny’s Destiny, looks the one to be on.

He’s no mug on the clock himself, having run a race-leading 156 at the trip, is improving fast and though Grey Dawning would have finished closer to him but for an error two out when the pair met earlier in the season he’s sure to get a measured ground-saving ride out in front, uncontested too if Timeform’s pace forecast is anything to go by, which you can’t always say about some of the rush-of-blood rides Harry Skelton (only one win from thirty-seven rides over fences at the Cheltenham Festival) has given chasers in recent years.

At 4/1, he looks decent value to give Paul Nicholls his second successive Turners winner.

Nicky Henderson-trained runners dominate the time ratings for the Pertemps but with his stable under a cloud to such a severe extent that two of his high-profile horses Jonbon and Shishkin have been pulled out of the Champion Chase and Gold Cup respectively it makes sense to look elsewhere and unsurprisingly it’s the Irish who dominate the betting.

Choosing between any of several credible candidates is difficult to say the least using the clock and if pushed for a selection I’d opt for the mare Popova but her trainer Henry de Bromhead and jockey Rachael Blackmore look to have much more solid claims in the following Ryanair Chase with defending champion Envoi Allen who remarkably has run at every Cheltenham Festival since 2019.

He might be facing two more rivals than in 2023 but some of them are the same and ought to have too much speed for several of his rivals stepping down from three miles. The ones he has to fear most on the clock are Banbridge, who has been declared despite conditions being much softer than connections have publicised (not that that stopped Lark In The Mornin, twice withdrawn recently on heavy ground, winning the Boodles on Tuesday) and Stage Star who is increasingly all or nothing and surely won’t get the uncontested lead he enjoyed in the Turners.

Envoi Allen is effectively taking the same route he took in 2023, scoring at Down Royal and then kept fresh after missing the King George in which he ran so woefully last year, and a repeat of his last year’s win will hopefully be good enough.

Sire Du Berlais tops the time ratings in the Stayers Hurdle, a race he won in 2023 when he was in peak form, but he returns with a very different profile this season having just had one inconclusive run in the ragbag Grand National trial known more formally as the Boyne Hurdle and it’s not easy to know what level of ability he retains.

Flooring Porter is an interesting re-recruit to the hurdling ranks and should go well along with the 2023 third Teahupoo who has been kept fresh for this and for whom the rains have come in time. I’m struggling to find a bet on the clock, however, and nothing really catches my eye in the Kim Muir either but the remaining two races, the Plate and the Mares’ Novices Hurdle look fair betting heats.

Things aren’t quite as tight at the top of the time ratings in the Plate as might be expected but, that said and keen as I am on his chance I find it hard to put forward Theatre Man at an already tight 9/2 which is a price that will shorten even more if Ginny’s Destiny who beat him last time in a race that has been a prominent Cheltenham pointer in recent years wins the Turners earlier in the afternoon.

So, I’ll turn to the Mares for my final selection in the hope that Fergal O’Brien gets some well-deserved atonement for the sad demise of Highland Hunter by landing his first Festival winner. The two mares at the head of the market, Brighterdaysahead and Jade De Grugy, are both trained in Ireland and won’t be easy to beat, particularly Brighterdaysahead who showed a very decent turn of foot in bumpers last year and has looked smart in three unbeaten starts over hurdles, but there are good grounds for thinking Dysart Enos is at least her equal and she’s available at a much bigger price.

Carefully campaigned so she escapes a penalty for this race, she was easily the best of her sex domestically in bumpers last year by my calculations, winning a hot Grade 2 race at Aintree in a very fast timefigure where six of the ten horses that followed her home at wide margins won next time out.

There’s room for improvement in her jumping but connections have presumably been working on that at home and she makes a lot of appeal.

Cheltenham Festival day three selections

• 1pt win Ginny’s Destiny in the Turners (4/1 general)
• 1pt win Envoi Allen in the Ryanair (9/2 general)
• 1pt win Dysart Enos in the Mares' Novices' Hurdle (NON RUNNER)

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