Timeform's Graeme North analyses the Dublin Racing Festival from a timefigure perspective and he learnt plenty for Cheltenham.
In last week’s column I examined the record of horses at the Cheltenham Festival who had finished first or second at Cheltenham Trials Day at the end of January; results were pretty good on the whole, certainly a bit better than I had expected, with at least one winner per year in all years bar one since 2014 not counting 2020 when the programme was hit Covid.
That said, there was a clear pattern the figures were dropping off from 2021 which coincides with the increasing dominance of the Dublin Racing Festival as a Cheltenham predictor. Since the DRF was established in 2018 – and once again missing out 2020 - the winners of the 15 races have followed up at Cheltenham at least twice in the same year but more commonly three or four times. As such, the results from last weekend need close scrutiny and who knows, there may even have been five future winners on show as there was in 2021.
First up on Saturday was the Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle which, despite going to the likes of good novices Good Land and Dancing City, has still to be won by a subsequent same year Cheltenham winner, for all Gaillard du Mesnil, who until this year had posted the best winning figure in the race on the clock, 145, came back later and won the National Hunt Challenge Cup albeit in very fortuitous circumstances.
It’s unlikely that any of those behind the latest winner Final Demand merit consideration in Graded races at the Festival so convincingly were they beaten, but the winner looks a top prospect and the best chance yet the race has of producing its first Cheltenham winner. He tanked through his Limerick win at Christmas when beating two next-time-out winners easily and did the same here in a race that was run at a searching pace throughout.
Despite that, his final circuit time was easily the fastest of the three hurdle races run on the day, one of which was over two miles, and his finishing splits from three out, two out and the last were arguably even more impressive given the two-mile hurdle didn’t really begin to take shape until the home turn. Most of the official 12 lengths he put between himself and runner-up Wingmen came after the last and though he’s in all three novice hurdles, he looks to me a better fit for the Albert Bartlett than the other two given the stamina on display here. A 148 timefigure sets an extremely high standard.
The two-mile hurdle referred to above was the Grade 2 juvenile hurdle which has been won in previous years by subsequent Triumph Hurdle winners Quilixios and Vauban as well as Gala Marceau who finished second in 2024 behind Majborough.
The latest contest went to a horse I have mentioned before, Hello Neighbour, and though he didn’t win by far he didn’t to me look to do his Cheltenham claims any harm despite a winning timefigure of just 88. As I have mentioned, juveniles who have won a Graded race on their hurdling debut as he did at Leopardstown on Boxing Day (for which he was sent off favourite after two Flat wins) have a very good record in similar events subsequently (subsequent Triumph Hurdle winner Burning Victory was another who managed the feat) and his Flat speed might yet be the overriding factor if the Triumph turns into something of a dash as it might given other potential challengers to current favourites Lulamba and East India Dock look thin on the ground.
Percival Legallois took the one-time Pertemps Trial for the second time in three years in a smart 135 timefigure. He was installed as second favourite for that race in 2023 after his win off a mark of 125 at Leopardstown; a 10lb higher mark here is an indication of the progress he has made since and though his official handicap mark has taken a hammering for that win, up 11lb, his chase mark has remained unchanged on 153, at least in Ireland. He’s in the Grand National.
The first chase on the card was the Grade 1 Irish Arkle, won in recent seasons by subsequent Arkle winners Footpad and El Fabiolo, and it went to another Willie Mullins horse in the shape of Majborough who wasn’t foot perfect at a couple of fences but was good at others and never looked like coming down (log-in for free video replay, below).
He ran the distance between the third last and second last a second slower than the handicapper An Peann Dearg (who scored off an official mark of 122 while carrying 24lb less) in the concluding handicap over the same trip, having run the distance from the first fence to three out in almost identical time, so to run the section from the second last to the last two seconds faster and then the segment to the line over more than another second faster still was some feat given the weight differential, all combining for a 159 timefigure.
For context, that’s the same as Sir Gino posted at Kempton over Christmas and all the more significant as far as Cheltenham is concerned given the only novice chasers to have run higher figures before the conclusion of the Dublin Racing Festival are 2021 Arkle winner Shishkin (161 and 165), Energumene (163, missed a clash with Shishkin but won the Grade 1 at Punchestown), Ferny Hollow (163, missed Cheltenham through injury), Grey Dawning (161, won the Turners) and Edwardstone (160 twice, won the 2022 Arkle). For what it’s worth Galopin Des Champs also posted a 158 in his novice season before and would also have won the Turners but for a clumsy last fence fall. Some record to follow and an Arkle very much to look forward to assuming Sir Gino comes through Newbury this weekend problem free!
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Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsGalopin Des Champs was also on show on Saturday and won the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup again, just as he had done before winning the last two Cheltenham Gold Cups. Once again, his winning timefigure wasn’t fast, just 115 after being allowed to dictate a steady pace (time from the fence in the home straight to three out nine seconds (!) slower than An Peann Dearg) that saw the field still well grouped up three fences from home, the proximity in second of the seemingly much-improved Grangeclare West something of a conundrum, but Galopin Des Champs never looked troubled.
Some of those behind on Saturday will benefit from a more strongly-run race but Galopin Des Champs is no less effective when stamina is at a premium (best timefigure 179) and it’s clutching at straws a bit to think any placings might be reversed.
The concluding bumper has been won by subsequent Cheltenham winners Envoi Allen, Facile Vega and A Dream To Share in recent years but with this year’s winner Colcannon seemed the most exposed in the field and it was probably a substandard running for all the winner was at a disadvantage for coming from the rear.
The horse who Sir Gino beat at Kempton, Ballyburn, was back in action for the first time since in the opening Grade 1 over fences on Sunday, the Ladbrokes Novice Chase over an extended twenty-one furlongs. In contrast to the previous day’s Irish Arkle, the pace was on the modest side, dictated by the 2023 Ballymore third Champ Kiely, who dropped away rather disappointingly that consideration in mind and ended up finishing behind the never-dangerous Impaire Et Passe as he had in the Ballymore.
From two out the race only ever featured Ballyburn and the likeable Croke Park, who briefly looked like he might make it three in a row when jumping the last in front, but he couldn’t go with Ballyburn after the last. A winner over three miles already, Croke Park will be hard to keep out of the frame in the Brown Advisory (generally available at 10/1 with three places available) having won in a good time at Christmas (145) but the extra distance promises to suit Ballyburn too and the 157 (over hurdles last year) and 154 he has run to are high timefigures for a novice chaser if not quite in the Shishkin echelon mentioned above.
So, what to make of Solness who won his second race at Leopardstown in a row after the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase, both from the front after taking a very wide course and showing in the process, at least on the face of things, a vastly superior level of form than he had until then having been thumped not long before by Jonbon in the Tingle Creek.
Four of the horses who had finished behind Solness at Christmas took him on again in the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase but only Marine Nationale got closer than he had first time around, reducing the significant gap Solness had built up since the third fence from 14 lengths five out to six two out and two approaching the last. Given the very wide and possibly advantageous route he followed, almost scraping the outside rail, it’s hard to know exactly how much if anything he was at an advantage but timefigures of 163 and 160 on his last two starts if taken at face value suggest he deserves a crack at the Champion Chase.
That race looks sure to be on the agenda too for 2023 Supreme winner Marine National who looks to be steadily regaining his form, but the race saw another underwhelming one from Gaelic Warrior who was detached until late on while El Fabiolo didn’t get beyond the second fence adding to a increasingly and worrying recent shaky profile.
Backtonormal appreciated the drop into handicap company after three runs against smart novices, running out a winner of the handicap chase in a modest time but still managing to match the figures Ballyburn posted over the last three fences after running a very creditable if marginally slower – less than a second – final circuit. A 12lb rise in his Irish mark to 142 doesn’t look harsh in the circumstances and it wouldn’t be a surprise if his shrewd trainer Gavin Cromwell has him lined up for something valuable over three miles.
The Sky Bet Supreme looks the destination for the latest Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle winner Kopek Des Bordes and though it’s hardly original, I find it hard to see what might get close to him let alone beat him at Cheltenham.
His circuit time – hurdle in the straight to the winning line – was the fastest of all the three hurdle winners on the card (though might not have been had State Man been ridden differently) and though he covered the section between three out and two out almost a second slower than McLaurey managed in the concluding handicap, he ran a lot faster between the last two and faster still from the last, by five lengths or so by my calculations despite his rider taking things very easily.
A 154 timefigure is the same as Ballyburn recorded last year and 1lb higher than Impaire Et Passe posted in 2023; both went on to score at Cheltenham and so dominant was Kopek Des Bordes it’s not difficult to see him starting odds-on come Cheltenham and potential opposition dries up.
The Irish Champion Hurdle, which was already a two-horse affair, turned into a non-event after Lossiemouth tipped up under an unexpectedly aggressive ride, State Man getting to three out (after she had come down) around 24 lengths faster than Kopek Des Bordes before finding his way home rather wearily, it looked to me, the evidence once again far from conclusive he’s back to the level he was at last season.
McLaurey posted a 113 in the listed handicap, in which runner-up and 2024 Triumph fifth Storm Heart (132, official mark up 7lb) caught the eye in second, while Bambino Fever had plenty in hand in the Mares’ Bumper, winning in a 93 timefigure.
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