Timefigure analysis for Irish Oaks winner Magical Lagoon and more

Not so long ago when Timeform House was still operational, there was an ‘Accident Book' kept in the one of the cupboards in the canteen alongside the First Aid box in which work-related injuries and incidents had to be entered among other things.

Most of the entries were as I recall minor and typical of most office-focused environments such as ‘sustained a paper cut to finger while reading the Weekender’ though occasionally something more racy such as ‘banged head after slipping on discarded orange peel on stairway’ made an appearance.

The one entry that has stuck with me most, however, not least as it is sometimes still relevant, was posted by James Willoughby and complained of a ‘terrible headache after studying the weight-for-age table’ that required a ‘long sit down in a dark room’. I never had cause to make an entry in the book myself, but if Timeform House was still open I’m sure I’d have popped downstairs by now and, with a nod to James, scribbled something about ‘Curragh timefigure-induced midsummer madness’.

More about that later, but at least there was some decent racing at the Curragh last weekend as well as plenty of good-class action in France last week, as there certainly wasn’t at home with the only pattern race domestically being the bet365 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury on a day dominated (depending on your disposition) either by the Weatherbys Super Sprint or the fillies novice that had to be abandoned after none of the thirteen entries were declared in the latest dispute over prize money.

Oddly, considering the lamentable number of small fields lately, the Hackwood attracted a bigger-than-usual field of thirteen and went to the 2020 Gimcrack winner Minzaal in a 102 timefigure, though Hollie Doyle will no doubt wish she could ride the race again with her mount, Wokingham winner Rohaan, looking unfortunate after being rushed up from the back.

The field ended up converging on the stands' rail, so often an indication of uneven and overwatering, and was the line taken by Eddie’s Boy in the Super Sprint. Eddies Boy was one of several with similar form claims behind clear form pick Maria Branwell, but with no Little Big Bear or Rocket Rodney in opposition he made the most of his ideal draw next to the stands' rail to win authoritatively in a career-best 99 timefigure (Swift Asset in sixth, one of only two to go far side, must have done well).

The best timefigure of the day (115) at Newbury - and the highest of the week domestically, too - came from Grocer Jack in the Listed Steventon Stakes. Having just his third run for William Haggas and first in Britain, Grocer Jack added to his Group 3 wins last year in Italy and Germany in good style, staying on very strongly to win by nine lengths and is another good advertisement for trying to unpick the results of French Group races by recourse to the sectional times published on France Galop, having run the fastest last 600m in the Grand Prix de Chantilly last time out in which the front-running winner Mare Australis was only sixth best on that metric.

I’ve written before how timefigures sheets at the Curragh can be daunting with meetings often having to be split into two or more distinct distance divisions to return acceptable timefigures once sectional upgrades have been considered.

Even after doing that, it was hard to settle on some acceptable figures across Saturday’s Irish Oaks card with those over sprint distances particularly hard to pin down. The overall times made it clear the course had thrown an awful lot of water on the track leading Timeform to describe the ground as good to soft, unacceptable in itself in high summer after a period of dry weather, but beyond that the relative times over sprint distances led to speculation in some quarters that the 6f 63y start wasn’t where it has been previously.

Certainly, the times for both races are among the slowest recorded this century, though the resultant timefigure for Little Big Bear (92) is pegged to an extent by the 16lb upgrade (which relies on the sectional distance as measured by the furlong poles and the overall race distance being deadly accurate) making his overall time rating 108.

All the other timefigures over sprint distances were slotted in behind Little Big Bear, but given that the official times in those races differed to my hand times by approximately 0.26 seconds bigger than I would have expected, it’s fair to say that the figures on the straight course are not ones I’m particularly confident in and could easily be 10lb too low across the board.

For what it’s worth, Little Big Bear ran the fastest last three furlongs of the four races over sprint distances with his 34.48 sectional as measured by Timeform over two seconds faster than that recorded by Mr Wagyu over the same distance half an hour later (Little Big Bear also ran the overall distance 0.2 seconds faster) and 0.66 seconds faster than Ladies Church managed in winning the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes over the minimum trip.

Fortunately, the race times over a mile and a half made more sense. Game and genuine Juddmonte Irish Oaks winner Magical Lagoon might be, but there can be little doubt an in-form Emily Upjohn would have thumped her had her flight not been grounded at Stansted. A winning time just over two seconds faster than the (officially) 63-rated Extensio posted half an hour later is far from exceptional, not least as it comes with no upgrade and translates into a miserly 103 timefigure.

This is undistinguished Classic form, make no mistake about it, with runner-up Toy possibly throwing the race away and how on earth the winning distance was returned as half a length is beyond me when it was clearly a head or neck at most, adding further to the sense of an unsatisfactory day at the ‘headquarters’ of Irish Flat racing.

Times made more sense on the Sunday but there was little to get excited about from a timefigure perspective with Order Of Australia winning the Romaised Minstrel Stakes in a timefigure of 102 and Lily Pond taking the Kilboy Estate Stakes in 97 to make it a pattern-race double for Aidan O’Brien.

As I’ve made clear a couple of times recently, Onesto was a horse I had been waiting to reappear having run the last 600m in the Prix du Jockey-Club 0.37 seconds faster than the winner Vadeni from a draw out in stall 14 whereas the winner had benefit of the inside rail, and I’ve little doubt that he’s almost as good if not as good as the Eclipse winner having come from last to first very readily in the Grand Prix de Paris under a confident ride from Stephane Pasquier.

El Bodegon, who’d finished a length and a half or so ahead of Onesto from a good draw at Chantilly, had no answer this time around as Onesto left him for dead inside the last 400m, and Onesto’s win underlines how much it is worth keeping an eye out for Jockey-Club fourth Al Hakeem who also ran the last 600m faster than Vadeni from an almost as wide draw.

As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, Onesto ran all five of the last individual 200m faster than any of his rivals in the Prix Greffulhe and he almost repeated that feat in the Grand Prix, running all bar one of the last five quicker and only 0.02 seconds slower in the other. Onesto is not your typical French-trained Group 1 mile-and-a-half winner being by Frankel out of a mare by Sea The Stars and I’d be surprised if there isn’t more improvement forthcoming, certainly enough to allow him to develop into a leading Arc candidate.

Quickthorn was also a winner on the card, winning the Prix Maurice de Nieuil over a trip two furlongs or so shorter than in the Henry II Stakes, but he ran a slow last 600m and only got the prize because the much-faster finishing runner-up Jannah Flower (who looks likely to improve even more at two miles) was set too much to do.

Staying in France, there were good wins over the weekend for Aidan O’Brien’s Blackbeard in the Prix Robert-Papin and William Haggas’ My Prospero in the Prix Eugene Adam.

Blackbeard was easily the best in the Papin at Chantilly, brushing aside the bigged-up home challenge headed by Prix du Bois winner Belbek with ease, but not impressing totally with his head carriage or manner in which he hung left when sent to the front. His stablemate The Antarctic ran a slightly faster last 600m but was hampered by being set a lot to do.

Tariyana, a filly by Sea The Stars, was another for the ‘wide-draw next-time-out system’ from the Chantilly classics, having little chance from her 18 stall when eighth in the Prix de Diane but always in control in the Prix Chloe.

At Saint-Cloud the previous day My Prospero saw things out gamely without seemingly running up to his St James Palace’s Stakes form. Sectionals show that he ran both the last 600m as well as the last 200m slower than the pair that chased him home with the third Junko, winner of the Prix Noailles on his previous start, looking a little unlucky not to retain his inbeaten record.

Finally, it was interesting to read David Easterby say in a Racing Post Q&A on Saturday that his greatest achievement this season had been his double at Pontefract’s ‘debacle’ meeting on June 27 that I drew attention to here a couple of columns ago when the runners ended up coming stand side after inconsistent and excessive watering.

Biases are cropping up everywhere on account of inconsistent watering at present - Redcar’s meeting on Sunday was one where the clock clearly showed the far rail was much faster than the centre of the course – and it’s becoming a full-time job keeping up with them.

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