Timefigure analysis for Cheltenham Festival hopefuls Ahoy Senor, Edwardstone, Echoes In Rain and more

The weekend just gone was an enjoyable one with some good action on both sides of the Irish Sea.

I’ll start at Cheltenham which hosted its usual January Trials Day card and where the feature race for the third time in the last ten years was one not usually part of the running order but carried over from a frozen Ascot the week before.

If any race on the card could rightly be described as a ‘proper trial’ it was the Albert Bartlett Clarence House Chase featuring as it did the two horses at the top of the betting for the Queen Mother Champion Chase, Energumene and Edwardstone.

In the event the script didn’t go to plan with another E in the shape of Editeur Du Gite upsetting the apple cart with an exuberant front-running performance. The race was a slightly tactical affair run at a decent if not end-to-end gallop – Editeur Du Gite’s wining timefigure was 154 compared to his 167 performance rating – and featured something of a slow-motion finish compared to the two handicaps over two and a half miles, with the winner’s time from the second last fence being at least a second and a half slower from two out than either Il Ridoto or Stage Star.

Willie Mullins and Alan King subsequently put forward excuses for their horses, Energumene fazed by the white fences apparently and Edwardstone too fresh, and though I’d say there was more truth in the latter I’d still favour Energumene, who may well have won this anyway had he not made a horlicks of the last, come March, even if it is still in the back of my mind that he’s a two-and-a-half miler operating at two miles.

The fast-improving Editeur Du Gite is certainly worth his place in the big one, however, with his Kempton defeat of Nube Negra over Christmas entitling him to a rating in the high 170s even if he has still to reach that level on the clock.

Ahoy Senor is a horse I’ve probably written more about than any other in this column this season, and not always in glowing terms, either.

He got back on the up in the Paddy Power Cotswold Chase in what was effectively a re-run of the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree, even if post-race quotes of 10/1 for the Gold Cup seem rather unrealistic to me.

Despite rail movements adding 100 yards to the race distance, the Cotswold wasn’t anything like the test of stamina that it has often has been and Ahoy Senor’s winning timefigure of 122, on the back of a slower finishing time from each of the last three fences than any of the other chases, is a fair way below the 166 Timeform awarded him on form.

SKY BET FESTIVAL FAVOURITES: Jonbon (Sporting Life Arkle) and Constitution Hill (Champion Hurdle BOTH to win - was 2/1, NOW 7/2!

The result seemed to me a triumph for his evolving track craft with signs his jumping is improving too, but with the race proving an insufficient test of stamina for both Noble Yeats (who shaped well considering I thought) and the keen-going Protektorat (whose best chance of winning a Gold Cup is surely not if Dan Skelton has him fully tuned up on the day, but if the race is run in a mudbath), if there was a conclusion to be drawn from events it was that the claims of those that weren’t there were enhanced at the expense of those that were.

Sounds Russian might well have won the race had he not gone for home quite so soon and jumped a couple of the last four fences better as well, but his wily trainer Ruth Jefferson seems of the opinion (and probably rightly so) that he’s not of Gold Cup quality and that he could well shine in the something less competitive like the Betway Bowl at Aintree.

My opinion might change next week after the Dublin Racing Festival, but the most likely Gold Cup winner as I see it still remains A Plus Tard for whom missing the Irish Gold Cup I see as a positive and not a negative.

Paul Nicholls might have been out of luck with the gallant but deteriorating Frodon in the Cotswold but Stage Star and Il Ridoto were two of his three winners on the card.

I’ve always held the former in some regard since his win in a faster finishing split over two and a half miles than Jonbon managed on the same card over two miles, and though his career trajectory hasn’t always been an upward one he finally looked the good horse his win in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at the end of 2021 suggested he was with a very convincing win in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase.

A 149 timefigure, on the back of the fastest time from the last fence to the line, of the four races over conventional fences, even then underestimates his merit for me given how easy his rider was taking things and, whatever your view of front runners being favoured on the day, is a deserved addition to the list of credible home-trained Festival candidates.

His stablemate Il Ridoto put up an even better performance on the clock, returning a 151 timefigure as he and the runner-up, the progressive Fugitiv, pulled fifteen lengths clear. Both are smart, though their performances didn’t go unnoticed by the handicapper.

Over hurdles, French-challenger Gold Tweet took the honours, if that’s the right word given his timefigure was only 139, on the clock in the Cleeve Hurdle.

That he could win so readily trying 3m for the first time (there are only a handful of races over that distance in France over hurdles) must be a sobering thought for the domestic contingent that lined up against him given he is hardly a prolific winner at home, but his speed at shorter trips was clearly a big factor on the day given the race didn’t provide the test Paisley Park needs.

Neither of the two Graded novice hurdles on the card were up to much on times. Comfort Zone has several superiors in Ireland and his win in the opening Triumph Trial (timefigure 121) only underlined the dearth of top juveniles trained here, while Rock My Way and Pembroke dominated a steadily-run Ballymore (timefigure 117) with those behind looking handicappers rather than Graded level. The latter’s official mark has been left alone, however, and he looks to me a prime candidate for improvement back at a strongly-run two miles.

Over at Doncaster’s Sky Bet sponsored fixture, Cooper’s Cross took the honours in the headline and eventful Sky Bet Chase, denied a serious challenge by fallers at each of the last two fences to score in a 134 timefigure.

Tommy’s Oscar hasn’t looked a natural over fences so far, but the Champion Hurdle also-ran had far too much speed for Boothill who was trying to concede 5lb in a steadily-run Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase (timefigure just 107) without looking as if he’s Arkle class. The two Grade 2s over hurdles went to Epatante and Maximilian.

Epatante had the sort of Cheltenham preparation Nicky Henderson is particularly fond of, sent off at 2/9 in the Yorkshire Rose faced with no serious opposition and hacking up in a 128 timefigure, well below the level she is capable of, while Maximilian, back from a breathing operation, beat what looked a stronger field than lined up in the Ballymore at Cheltenham in a 131 timefigure without as I saw it looking up to Graded standard.

There were several good cards in Ireland last week.

Three Card Brag was the star name on show at Fairyhouse last Wednesday and posted a creditable 134 timefigure from the front in the novice hurdle but whether he’ll turn out to be as good in time as the winner of the two-mile novice, In Excess, remains to be seen.

The latter showed a sharp turn of foot after the last and could have doubled his winning margin had he began his run sooner and is almost certainly graded class even if he ends up running in another handicap again next time.

Gowran Park staged their main race of the year, the Goffs Thyestes Chase on Thursday. The race might have drawn some criticism on account of the majority of the runners coming from just two yards but the finish didn’t with just a short head separating Carefully Selected and Dunboyne at the end of a strongly-run race that saw the winner register the highest timefigure performance (152) of the week.

Sir Gerhard made an unconvincing debut over fences (which are some of the softest in Ireland) on the same card and a beating of the equally flaky Largy Debut in an 89 timefigure says as much about the pace as it does the value of the form.

The feature event over hurdles, the John Mulhern Galmoy Hurdle, went to Teahupoo who shortened up rather bizarrely in the market for the Stayers' Hurdle afterwards. The race attracted a ragbag of contenders all of whom were at least two years older than he is including several that had plenty to prove, and in drawing clear over the last couple of flights to score in a 139 timefigure Teahupoo did nothing other than confirm he is in good heart.

Ashroe Diamond was another horse to harden in the market for Cheltenham after winning the Solerina Mares Novices Hurdle at Fairyhouse, a race that has gone to Allegorie de Vassy and Honeysuckle in recent years, but the race was a messy one (timefigure was just 122) and in the circumstances her sectionals from the second last and last hurdle when compared with those recorded by the ordinary maiden winner Buddy One later on were slightly underwhelming in all honesty.

Her best days are still ahead of her undoubtedly, but one horse whose career looks all but over is Bob Olinger who was a sorry sight of his former self in the Limestone Lad Hurdle.

I’m not sure who at the yard or among his connections thought it was a good idea to try him back at two miles, or whether it was no more than a final throw of the dice, but it was clear from Rachael Blackmore’s body language very early that he wasn’t travelling and he had no answer to the speed of Echoes In Rain before staging a minor rally for third late on.

He won’t be a factor even if he turns up at Cheltenham, but Echoes In Rain surely will as she looks better than ever to me and I’ve no doubt she would have played a leading role and might even had won the Hatton's Grace in December had she not tipped up two out when cantering.

For one that stays well – she was an agonising second in the Irish Cesarewitch when carrying my money – she has speed in spades and she’s one I would want on my side in the Mares’ Hurdle.

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