The Cunningham File: Chrono Genesis the horse to deliver Arc de Triomphe glory for Japan

Genesis to prove a Japanese revelation in Arc showdown

The first Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe I recall was as a 14-year-old. Local superstar Allez France was odds-on to repeat her 1974 success in a field which also contained old rival Dahlia and several leading three-year-olds, while Lester was riding Duke Of Marmalade (no, not that one) and Tony Murray partnered Leger hero Bruni.

It was a rough race with 24 runners vying for space – Dahlia and Allez France were among those hampered in a scrummage at halfway - and I felt slightly cheated when Greville Starkey charged through to give Germany a first Arc winner on 118/1 shot Star Appeal.

Solemia left me similarly perplexed (and appreciably poorer) when thwarting the wretched Japanese star Orfevre in 2012, but the Arc usually sorts the hawks from the doves in short order. So how do this year’s faucons et colombes stack up? Or, to put it another way, who has the right blend of courage, class and Star Appeal?

🦅 ADAYAR (Timeform 133)

No, I still can’t work out how he didn’t win the Lingfield Derby Trial. And yes, I know he can emulate Mill Reef and Lammtarra if he brings his Epsom and Ascot form to Longchamp. A destructive Derby win and a decisive King George victory place Adayar firmly in the Hawk File - but there is one caveat.

It’s not so much the minor setback that caused him to miss the Prix Niel, though that is worth noting. No, Adayar’s early aggression is the potential concern.

The apple hasn’t fallen far from the tree with this son of Frankel, who took a fierce hold in the King George until Broome rolled forward to give him a lead and some valuable cover. Sunday is another day but similar exuberance could be problematic.

Star Appeal Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

🦅 CHRONO GENESIS (Timeform 125)

It’s been a while since Chrono Genesis received a File mention for the Arc at 16/1 but this high-class mare still looks overpriced at 10/1. Granted, her TF rating isn’t as high as previous Japanese raiders like El Condor Pasa, Deep Impact and the wretched Orfevre but she’s at least as good as as Nakayama Festa, who ran Workforce close in 2010, and the 125 she earned running Mishriff to a neck in the Sheema Classic puts her right in the Arc mix with a sex allowance.

Japanese jockey bashing is a tradition like no other but Chrono Genesis gave the impression she could have found more at Meydan had her rider Yuichi Kitamura avoided a sustained nudge-athon with fellow Japanese raider (and subsequent HK G1 winner) Loves Only You. Highly consistent and effective on a yielding surface, it would come as no surprise if she posts a career best with Oisin Murphy aboard.

And if she does, this daughter of Arc hero Bago might just be the one to give Japan that cherished first Arc success.

Star Appeal Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Click here to back Chrono Genesis for the Arc with Sky Bet

🦅 SNOWFALL (Timeform 124)

Defeat in the Prix Vermeille didn’t stop Solemia and Treve getting it right on Arc day and three runaway summer Oaks successes suggest Snowfall’s shock trial reverse shouldn’t be held against her too much. All the same, that Vermeille defeat is puzzling. In a rare example of jock-on-jock criticism, Frankie blamed Hollie for not setting a strong enough pace aboard pacemaker La Joconde.

He may have a point but Snowfall couldn’t cope with the rejuvenated Teona and had to work hard to get past a stablemate she had treated with disdain at Epsom, the Curragh and York. The good news if you like her is that Snowfall has drifted from 2/1 to 5/1 - but can we really treat the Vermeille as just one of those days?

Star Appeal Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

🦅 TARNAWA (Timeform 125)

When a five-year-old has had 16 runs you ought to have a clear idea of how good she is. But, unlike the market, I’m unsure whether Tarnawa is a true champ or just very good. Her narrow win in last year’s Opera was good, not great. Her BC Turf defeat of below-par Magical and exposed grinder Channel Maker fills the same bracket, while her runaway Leopardstown reappearance win this year was against inferiors.

The Irish Champion should have answered any lingering queries but Dermot Weld’s mare was stymied behind St Mark’s Basilica as possibly the best ever O’Brien colt hung towards the Leopardstown betting ring. Sunday’s market makes her a 5/2 chance to beat four rivals with similar or better form. And, though she’s nobody’s pigeon, price hawks might opt to pass.

Star Appeal Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

🦅 HURRICANE LANE (Timeform 126p)

The Frankel fire doesn’t burn so brightly here and the chances of this Hurricane burning himself out by wasting energy are remote. But will Hurricane Lane be good enough on his first venture into all-aged company?

Wins in the Irish Derby (narrow yet deserved), Grand Prix de Paris (commanding) and St Leger (emphatic) make him a dangerous horse to underestimate. And, though his TF mark leaves him with something to find against stablemate Adayar, he heads to France with much stronger credentials than most of the long list of Leger winners who have come up short on Arc day.

Star Appeal Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

🕊 This year’s pigeon coop consists of a few who simply don’t look good enough like last year’s fifth Raabihah (TF 116), Niel one-two Bubble Gift and Baby Rider (TF 111) and the long-absent Sealiway (TF 118), while Broome (TF 123) could be in to help make the pace for Snowfall and the second Japanese raider Deep Bond (TF 126) might be flattered by an all-the-way Prix Foy win in which he and Broome were given plenty of rope.

Mojo Star (TF 122) and Alenquer (TF 117) have work to do to reverse Leger and Grand Prix de Paris form with Hurricane Lane but the Leger runner-up could still be on the up and a peak-form Love (TF 122) and German raider Torquator Tasso (123) would make more appeal than most of the longshots.

Conclusion: Time is right for Chrono to end Japan’s Arc drought

The final field is declared, complete with draw, and now the annual debate about whether you need to be high or low is ongoing. Some say a low gate is a big advantage but Sakhee and Treve bolted up from stall 15, while Golden Horn won from 14 and the wretched Orfevre would have saluted in style from way out west in 18 had he not dogged it furiously.

Of course, if there is a draw bias then a list of star horses who were compromised by it should be readily available. Sea Of Class when second to Enable in 2018? I don’t buy it for the simple reason that she would have been dropped out in rear and a hostage to traffic wherever she had been berthed. Oh, and she also ran a career best against an exceptional rival.

Taghrooda and Kingston Hill when third and fourth from 15 and 20 in 2014? Perhaps they would have finished a little closer but they certainly weren’t up to beating Treve and, with the ground set to be soft, I’m not using the draw as a route into this year’s race.

That’s just as well given that Chrono Genesis is drawn 14, I hear you say. In an ideal world I would have preferred less testing ground but her sire Bago handled the mud well and Chrono Genesis is the one horse in the race who could be appreciably better than the market suggests.

Arlington closure rings alarm bells the world over

Breeders’ Cup arrived in Chicago for the first and only time on October 26, 2002 and the Windy City was bright and chilly for a superb one-day event that gripped this first-time visitor from start to finish.

Brilliant American filly Azeri romped in the Distaff; Aidan O’Brien’s Rock Of Gibraltar rolled too late as French longshot Domedriver swooped in the Mile; stablemate High Chaparral added to his two Derby wins in the Turf; and Volponi’s 43/1 Classic boilover helped shed light on a brazen Pick Six scam which led to jail time for a Tote programmer and two pals.

If you had told me then that Arlington was on borrowed time I would have been incredulous, but one of the jewels in the crown of American racing closed its doors last weekend, with owners Churchill Downs Inc. accepting a bid of almost $200m from the NFL’s Chicago Bears as a possible replacement for its historic Soldier Field site.

It’s tempting to think a similar fate could never befall one of Britain’s leading city racecourses. But twenty years is a long time in any sport. Kempton had a near miss a few years ago. And if it can happen to Arlington, it can probably happen anywhere.

Too busy to die? I thought you were

The much-delayed release of the latest James Bond movie got me pondering on Derek Thompson this week. Now that’s not a sentence I ever thought I’d type but when I heard the Bond flick was called ‘No Time To Die’ it made me think the Broccoli family were borrowing the title of the former C4 frontman’s autobiography.

A swift Google search revealed Tommo’s tome (penned in conjunction with the RP’s Lee Mottershead) is actually called ‘Too Busy To Die’ and the blurb claims Derek is "as comfortable interviewing the Aga Khan as Ronnie Corbett."

I’ve no idea why the late Ronnie would ever have cause to interview the Aga but Sportinglife guv’nor David Ord hailed it as “a text version of a very good best man’s speech"” And it’s only three sovs on ebay!

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