Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour events in Geneva and Lyon

Tennis betting tips: Gonet Geneva Open and Open Parc

2pts Casper Ruud to win the Gonet Geneva Open at 3/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Luciano Darderi in the Open Parc at 12/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)

1pt e.w. Alexandre Muller in the Open Parc at 20/1 (Sky Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Gonet Geneva Open

• Geneva, Switzerland (outdoor clay)

It’s pretty rare for the world number one to play in the week prior to the Grand Slam but that’s the case in Geneva this week where Novak Djokovic has requested a wild card and duly heads up a strong draw.

He’s one of two top-10 stars in attendance – Casper Ruud being the other – while there are five of the world’s top 20 in the Swiss city in total.

Leaving aside the COVID-affected seasons, Djokovic last played in such a week at Eastbourne in 2017.

As is the case now, he was struggling for form at the time but won that title without losing a set.

Perhaps a repeat will occur here but Djokovic isn’t at home as much on clay and the way he’s played so far this year should have alarm bells ringing for those considering backing the favourite at 6/4.

Maybe it wasn’t quite up there with the Indian Wells loss to Luca Nardi, but Djokovic’s defeat to Alejandro Tabilo last week in Rome was still shocking, especially the manner of it with the Serb looking all at sea.

That can perhaps be put down to the incident which saw the 24-time Grand Slam winner struck on the head by a water bottle which fell from a fan’s bag in the stands after his previous match.

Djokovic has since had scans and has reported no lingering issues but the fact he’s here at all shows his need for matches which in itself displays his struggles in 2024 – he’s yet to win a title of any nature this season.

The 36-year-old’s draw has thrown up a potential opener against Andy Murray – the pair haven’t met since 2017 when the Scot still had his original hip.

That’s generated plenty of talk but the chatter is rather disrespectful to Murray’s first-round foe, Yannick Hanfmann, who is a proven performer at a decent altitude – and they are around 400m above sea level here in the foothills of the Alps.

The German could be an awkward opponent for both Murray and Djokovic and I certainly see no value in backing the top seed this week.

The usual pre-Slam proviso is also worth mentioning now – if Djokovic wins a couple of matches, could he pack his bags and head to Paris for some French Open prep in rather different conditions?

There has to be at least a chance. It would hardly be a first for a big name in a week such as this.

That should also be a worry for those considering backing Taylor Fritz.

The American, Djokovic’s slated semi-final opponent, has impressed on the European clay in recent weeks and, if he’s going full pelt, has to have a chance this week.

Yet after a fairly heavy schedule of late, I’m far form convinced Fritz will be fully committed to winning this title, especially with Roland Garros looming.

I’m usually aiming to get with an outsider in these weeks, a player who is very much engaged in giving his all, seeing this as a great opportunity, rather than simply a warm-up for what lies ahead.

However, the strength of the field and the paucity of form among many of the longer-priced contenders means I’m struggling to do that in Geneva.

The likes of Tomas Machac, Jack Draper, Fabian Marozsan, Alexnader Shevchenko, Emil Ruusuvuori and Marcos Giron were all players I took a look at, but none has really put much together of late.

Instead, I’m going to go with the player who has the strongest track record at this tournament and that’s CASPER RUUD.

• CLICK HERE to back Ruud with Sky Bet

Yes, he let us down in Rome with an early exit (losing to Miomir Kecmanovic having won the first set 6-0) but that defeat could now work in our favour.

The Norwegian likes to stay busy and he’ll now feel he really needs more matches under his belt.

Regardless of that, this is an event he’s played consistently in the past and he’s a two-time champion, winning the title in both 2021 and 2022. Last year he lost to eventual champion Nicolas Jarry in a tight quarter-final.

His appearances here have worked too – Ruud has made the final of the French Open in the past two years, ripping up the theory that a heavy week prior to a Slam will lead to fatigue at the bigger event.

I’m pretty sure Ruud’s goal will be to win in Geneva and then make another final at Roland Garros.

While disappointing in Rome and, to a lesser extent, Madrid, it should be remembered that Ruud won in Barcelona and made the final of the Monte Carlo Masters (where he beat Djokovic) so recent form is strong.

Throw in that excellent tournament record and Ruud gets the vote at 3/1.

Open Parc

• Lyon, France (outdoor clay)

If you’ve just read my Geneva preview above, you’ll already know why I’m wary of siding with the big names the week before the French Open.

But there are other reasons to take on the top three seeds in Lyon.

Ugo Humbert, Alexander Bublik and Adrian Mannarino all prefer a much faster court than this and I’d be pretty surprised to see one of them in Saturday’s final.

Frances Tiafoe is another of the seeds I’m happy to put a line through – he’s gone 0-3 since arriving in Europe.

So, with plenty of potential openings in the draw, preference is to look at some of the ‘lesser’ names.

In the top half, I’m going to side with a player who has made a real impact on clay in recent months and that’s LUCIANO DARDERI.

• CLICK HERE to back Darderi with Sky Bet

He was the surprise winner in Cordoba – his first tour-level title – and then made the last four in Houston.

In Europe, he’s reached two semi-finals of the Challenger Tour this month, first in Cagliari and then, only on Saturday, in Turin.

Saturday’s defeat may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for he’ll get a little bit more time to prepare in Lyon. In any case, losing to Lorenzo Musetti in two tight sets was far from a disgrace – you don’t get many top-30 players in Challengers.

During that run, Darderi has gone 6-6 against top-50 players – a good effort from a player yet to crack the top 50 himself – with good clay sorts such as Sebastian Baez and Francisco Cerundolo among those conquered.

He’ll now make the short trip across the border to Lyon where similar conditions should be on display – there’s certainly very little difference in terms of elevation so Turin should prove to be a decent prep for this event.

Darderi is in the weak-looking second quarter which features Mannarino and Tiafoe and the Italian looks to have a decent path to the semis.

There he could face Humbert but, more likely, the in-form Pedro Martinez or Tomas Etcheverry.

As I write, Martinez is in the Bordeaux Challenger final on Sunday, while Etcheverry arrives having made two ATP semi-finals since the tour hit the clay.

However, with the pair due to meet in round two, I can’t nail my colours to either mast and am happy to side with Darderi at 12/1.

In the bottom half, the Argentine pair of Cerundolo – last year’s runner-up – and Mariano Navone both hold strong claims but the duo look short enough to me with both towards the head of the market. Indeed, Cerundolo is the favourite.

Instead, I prefer to take a punt on a player at a longer price, namely ALEXANDRE MULLER.

• CLICK HERE to back MULLER with Sky Bet

The Frenchman played some of the best tennis of his career in Rome last week and should approach one of his home events brimming with confidence.

Having qualified in the Eternal City, Muller defeated recent Bucharest champion Marton Fucsovics and then seeds Arthur Fils and Andrey Rublev before finally falling to eventual finalist Nicolas Jarry.

He’ll open against veteran Richard Gasquet this week before facing (probably) Navone and then possibly Bublik.

Again, that looks a pretty good draw and if he manages to continue that form of last week, Muller is more than capable of going deep.

Given his form, one suspects he’s exactly the sort of player very much looking to win here, rather than considering what lies ahead in Paris.

At 20/1, Muller is worth a try.

Posted at 0945 BST on 19/05/24

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