Sky Bet Sunday Series: Timeform York guide ahead of May 22 meeting

Timeform’s York course guide

Left-handed, flat. In essence, York is a very fair track, ideal for the long-striding galloper.

In recent seasons, the field tends to come more down the centre of the track than has historically been the case, particularly if conditions are testing.

The track was made into a circuit in 2005 and offers a straight five-furlong/six-furlong track, on which a high draw has been a distinct disadvantage in recent years, while seven-furlong races start on a chute.

Leading active jockeys at York

Sorted by strike rate in the last five years (minimum 20 rides)

• Frankie Dettori 24.47% (23-94)
• Daniel Muscutt 19.05% (4-21)
• Connor Beasley 18.52% (15-81)
• Stevie Donohoe 16.67% (5-30)
• James Doyle 16.28% (21-129)

Other points to consider

• Danny Tudhope is the most prolific jockey at York in the last five years with 35 winners from 302 rides at a strike rate of 11.59%. Tudhope enjoyed three winners from 12 rides at the recent Dante Festival, the first meeting of the calendar year on the Knavesmire.
• Connor Beasley has been one of the most profitable jockeys to follow at York in the last five years – his 15 winners have returned a level-stake profit of 128.95 points at Betfair SP. Remarkably, six of those 15 wins have been achieved on the same horse, namely Dakota Gold who, after winning at the Dante Festival, now sits alongside Copper Knight and Stradivarius as the winning-most horses at York.

Leading active trainers at York

Sorted by strike rate in the last five years (minimum 20 rides)

• John & Thady Gosden 28.57% (32-112)
• Ed Dunlop 23.81% (5-21)
• Charlie Appleby 22.95% (14-61)
• William Haggas 18.22% (39-214)
• Owen Burrows 17.39% (4-23)

Other points to consider

• Local trainer Tim Easterby is the most prolific trainer at York in the last five years with 41 winners from 467 runners at a strike rate of 8.78%. Easterby saddled two winners from 16 runners at the recent Dante Festival, with Cruyff Turn and Bollin Joan both winning big-field handicaps.
• William Haggas (39), Richard Fahey (37) and Charlie & Mark Johnston (29) are best of the rest among the most prolific trainers at York in the last five years. However, bragging rights at the Dante Festival went the way of Karl Burke, who saddled four winners from 12 runners to take his overall tally at the track in the last five years to 12.

Running style

The tactical advantage front-runners have in any given race, both on the Flat and over jumps, should never be underestimated. For example, if you had backed every horse who recorded a Timeform EPF (Early Position Figure) of 1 in British Flat races since the start of the 2017 season, you would be operating at a strike rate of 18.01% and celebrating a profit of over 20,000 points at Betfair SP.

By contrast, the statistics tell us that backing hold-up horses simply doesn’t pay in the long run. Horses who recorded an EPF of 4 (towards rear) in British Flat races during the same period have a strike rate of 7.48%, while horses who recorded an EPF of 5 (in rear) have performed worse still with a strike rate of just 5.49%.

• Timeform EPFs range from 1 to 5 and help to explain where a horse was positioned during a race. An EPF of 1 is recorded by a horse who led and an EPF of 5 is recorded by a horse who was held up.

It’s worth pointing out that these figures can vary drastically from one course to the next. At one end of the spectrum there is Epsom, where front-runners have a strike rate of 27.71% since the start of the 2017 season, and at the other end there is Ascot, where front-runners have a strike rate of just 10.74% for the same period.

When looking at the overall data, York appears to fall somewhere in between. For context, front-runners have a strike rate of 16.64% in all Flat races run at York since the start of the 2017 season, once again faring better than horses who recorded an EPF of 2 (9.08%), 3 (7.73%), 4 (7.43%) or 5 (4.31%).

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